Nornickel Nickel Surplus Forecast Shrinks as Indonesia Supply Tightens

Nornickel

Nornickel nickel surplus forecast has been cut sharply for 2026 as Indonesian ore constraints, higher feedstock costs and sulphur shortages slow the supply growth that drove recent oversupply. The Russian producer now expects a marginal global surplus of around 20,000t, down from its previous forecast of 240,000t.

Nornickel nickel surplus forecast reflects a major shift in supply conditions. Global nickel production is expected to fall by 5% to 3.71mn t in 2026, marking the first annual decline in a decade, while demand is forecast to rise by 2% to 3.69mn t.

Nornickel nickel surplus forecast also places Indonesia at the centre of the market balance. Lower effective mining volumes, declining ore grades and sharply higher ore prices are tightening feedstock availability for NPI, HPAL and Class 1 nickel producers.

The adjustment follows a 2025 surplus of around 278,000t, when supply increased by 7% and demand rose by 6%. The market is therefore moving from structural oversupply toward a much tighter balance.

Indonesia Ore and Sulphur Constraints Reshape Supply

Indonesia mined around 320mn t of nickel ore in 2025 against an approved quota of 379mn t. For 2026, quotas are expected at around 300mn t, but actual mining could be closer to 270mn t if utilisation remains near 90%.

Lower ore grades further reduce contained nickel availability. Indonesian NPI production fell by 8% year on year in January-May, suggesting smelters are already feeling the impact.

Philippine ore imports could reach around 25mn t this year and offset part of the shortfall. However, Indonesia’s July quota review remains a critical market variable.

Ore economics are tightening as well. Indonesia’s revised pricing formula has doubled or tripled minimum ore prices for some grades.

Nornickel estimates the new system could add as much as $5,000/t to the cost of Class 1 nickel produced from Indonesian feedstock on a cathode-equivalent basis.

HPAL producers face another problem: sulphur.

Middle East disruption has pushed sulphur prices from around $300/t to above $1,000/t. HPAL operations require roughly 10-11t of sulphur for every tonne of nickel produced.

Indonesia sourced more than 75% of its sulphur imports from the Middle East in 2025, leaving battery nickel projects highly exposed to disrupted maritime supply.

Around one-third of HPAL capacity is currently idle, while HPAL production fell by 20% year on year in May.

Nornickel expects Indonesian NPI output to decline by 11% this year and mixed hydroxide precipitate production by 9%. Class 1 nickel supply is forecast to fall by 2%.

Demand Growth Stays Modest as Stainless Scrap Use Rises

Nickel demand is still growing, but not strongly enough to create a clear deficit.

Nornickel expects stainless steel nickel consumption to rise by only 1% this year. Chinese producers are using more scrap, reducing their need for primary nickel units.

China’s average stainless scrap share is expected to increase to 24% in 2026 from 19% in 2025. That change could keep Chinese primary nickel demand in stainless steel broadly flat at around 1.6mn t.

A higher share of 316 stainless partly offsets the scrap effect because 316 contains more nickel than 304. Chinese 300-series stainless output increased by 3% in the first five months of the year, while 200-series production rose by 11%.

Battery-related demand remains stronger.

China’s nickel sulphate output is forecast to rise by 15% to 421,000t of contained nickel in 2026 and reach 455,000t in 2027. Indonesian nickel sulphate production is expected to increase by 18% to 59,000t this year.

Matte output is another growth area. Indonesian nickel matte production is forecast to jump by 48% as conversion from NPI becomes more attractive.

The market could loosen again in 2027. Nornickel expects the surplus to widen modestly to around 55,000t if Indonesian ore quotas increase, sulphur availability improves and new processing capacity ramps up.

The near-term nickel story has therefore changed. Oversupply has not disappeared, but the margin between surplus and balance has narrowed sharply as Indonesian policy and feedstock economics begin to constrain output.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nickel’s biggest bullish driver is no longer demand acceleration but supply discipline in Indonesia. If ore quotas remain tight and sulphur costs stay elevated, the market could remain far more balanced than recent oversupply trends suggested.

EGA Al-Taweelah Recycling Plant Expands Low-Carbon Aluminium Capacity

EGA

EGA Al-Taweelah recycling plant has started operations in Abu Dhabi, adding 185,000 t/yr of low-carbon recycled aluminium capacity to Emirates Global Aluminium’s growing secondary metals platform.

EGA Al-Taweelah recycling plant will process both pre-consumer factory scrap and post-consumer aluminium scrap. The project strengthens EGA’s ability to supply customers seeking lower-carbon metal and higher recycled content.

EGA Al-Taweelah recycling plant also marks a recovery milestone after an Iranian missile struck the site on 28 March and delayed completion. Recycled cast metal production resumed in early May, with full ramp-up expected to take up to six months.

The pace of expansion will depend partly on scrap availability, highlighting how access to suitable recycled feedstock is becoming increasingly important to aluminium producers.

Scrap Supply Becomes Critical to EGA’s Ramp-Up

Construction of the Al-Taweelah recycling facility began in late 2023, and EGA charged its first melting furnace in January. Full completion had originally been targeted by the end of the first quarter.

The March missile strike disrupted that schedule and injured several employees. The restart of recycled cast metal production in May allowed EGA to resume the project’s commercial ramp-up.

The 185,000 t/yr facility gives EGA another route to reduce the carbon intensity of its product mix. Secondary aluminium requires significantly less energy than producing primary metal from alumina, making recycled units increasingly attractive to automotive, packaging and industrial customers.

However, scrap availability will determine how quickly the plant reaches nameplate output. Competition for clean pre-consumer and post-consumer aluminium scrap is rising as more producers invest in recycled-content products.

That makes collection, sorting, alloy control and long-term scrap sourcing increasingly important parts of aluminium competitiveness.

EGA Builds Global Secondary Aluminium Network

The Abu Dhabi project is part of a broader international recycling strategy. EGA has been expanding secondary aluminium capacity across Europe and North America through acquisitions and organic investment.

The company acquired German recycler Leichtmetalle in 2024 and later announced a major expansion that will increase the facility’s capacity more than sixfold.

EGA also bought a majority stake in US secondary aluminium smelter Spectro Alloys in 2024. Two subsequent expansions are expected to lift the plant’s capacity to more than 200,000 t/yr of secondary aluminium ingots and billets, from 110,000 t/yr previously.

In April, EGA announced the acquisition of an 80% stake in Italian aluminium recycler Eco Green, further extending its European recycling network.

The strategy gives EGA access to scrap pools closer to major customers while reducing reliance on primary aluminium growth alone. It also allows the company to offer a broader range of low-carbon products across different regions.

For the aluminium market, EGA’s expansion reinforces a wider structural shift. Recycling capacity is becoming a core strategic asset as customers demand lower embedded emissions and governments push for more circular material use.

The Metalnomist Commentary

EGA is turning recycling into a second growth platform alongside primary aluminium. The strategic constraint will increasingly be access to clean, traceable scrap rather than melting capacity itself.

Los Bronces Andina Joint Mine Plan Targets Major Chile Copper Growth

Codelco

Los Bronces Andina joint mine plan has cleared another major milestone after Anglo American and Chilean state-owned Codelco completed their agreement to coordinate development of the neighbouring copper operations.

Los Bronces Andina joint mine plan is expected to unlock an additional 2.7mn t of copper over 21 years from 2030. The companies expect the arrangement to lift combined production by around 120,000 t/yr.

Los Bronces Andina joint mine plan is strategically significant because it creates additional copper supply without relying entirely on a new greenfield mine. Instead, Anglo and Codelco will optimise adjacent resources, infrastructure and mine planning across two established operations.

The agreement is also expected to generate at least $5bn in cost savings. Its implementation remains subject to environmental permitting and other customary conditions, with the joint plan expected to begin around 2030.

Adjacent Mines Create Lower-Cost Copper Growth

Los Bronces and Andina sit next to each other in one of Chile’s most important copper districts. Coordinating development allows the companies to optimise resources that would be less efficiently exploited under separate mine plans.

This type of brownfield growth is increasingly valuable for the copper market. New mines face long permitting periods, rising capital costs and infrastructure challenges, while existing districts can often add production faster through operational integration.

The projected additional 2.7mn t of copper is therefore meaningful for long-term global supply. Copper demand continues to rise across power grids, renewable energy, electric vehicles, data centres and industrial electrification.

Anglo’s Los Bronces operation has already shown improving performance. First-quarter output rose by 12% to 48,500t after the restart of its second processing plant.

The joint plan could build on that recovery by improving access to ore and creating a more efficient long-term mining configuration across the wider district.

Chile Looks to Joint Development to Lift National Output

The agreement supports Chile’s goal of raising national copper production to 6mn t/yr by 2030. Maintaining that position will require new projects, mine-life extensions and better productivity from existing assets.

Anglo and Codelco expect the joint plan to save at least $5bn while maintaining existing environmental and sustainability commitments. That combination of higher output and lower unit development cost is increasingly important as copper projects become more expensive.

The agreement also allows both companies to continue pursuing standalone projects. For Anglo American, that includes its planned merger with Teck to create Anglo Teck Group, with a portfolio focused on copper, iron ore and zinc.

Environmental approval remains the key outstanding condition. That means the projected additional copper will not reach the market immediately, but the project strengthens Chile’s long-term supply pipeline.

For the global copper industry, the deal highlights an important growth model. Future supply may increasingly come from cooperation between neighbouring mines, shared infrastructure and more efficient use of existing mineral districts.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Anglo-Codelco agreement shows that the next wave of copper growth may come from optimising existing mining districts rather than building entirely new mines. In a market facing long permitting cycles and higher capital costs, adjacent-resource integration can unlock meaningful supply at lower risk.

China Critical Mineral Export Controls Tighten With New Enforcement Rules

China, Critical mineral

China critical mineral export controls are becoming more stringent as Beijing introduces new mechanisms to identify violations, prevent circumvention and strengthen oversight of strategic mineral shipments. The latest reporting framework takes effect on 1 July 2026 and specifically targets violations involving strategic mineral dual-use items.

China critical mineral export controls increasingly affect more than exporters themselves. Traders, processors, freight companies, overseas customers and intermediaries may need stronger documentation on product classification, end users, licensing and shipment routes as enforcement becomes more detailed.

China critical mineral export controls are also being reinforced by a separate supply-chain security investigation framework. The Ministry of Commerce can investigate foreign measures or commercial actions that it determines may damage China's industrial and supply-chain security.

The combined measures reinforce Beijing's use of regulatory oversight across critical mineral supply chains. For international buyers, compliance risk is becoming increasingly important alongside physical availability and price.

Circumvention and Third-Country Routing Face Greater Scrutiny

The new export-control reporting framework encourages organisations and individuals to report suspected violations. These include exports without licences, shipments outside approved licence conditions and exports of prohibited strategic mineral dual-use items.

The rules also explicitly address efforts to circumvent controls. They cover practices such as modifying or splitting controlled products into parts or components to avoid licensing requirements.

This is particularly important for complex industrial supply chains. Critical mineral products can move through multiple processors, traders and jurisdictions before reaching a final manufacturer.

China is therefore increasing pressure on companies to prove not only what they are exporting, but also where the material ultimately goes and how it will be used.

Authorities may provide rewards for verified reports of violations. Companies that identify potential non-compliance themselves are also encouraged to report voluntarily, with self-reporting potentially considered when penalties are determined.

The compliance burden will be especially significant for materials used in both civilian and defence applications. Rare earths, gallium, germanium, tungsten and antimony all have important roles in advanced electronics, aerospace, defence, semiconductors and industrial manufacturing.

Supply-Chain Security Rules Add Another Policy Layer

China's new supply-chain security investigation rules give the Ministry of Commerce authority to investigate certain foreign restrictions or discriminatory actions affecting Chinese industrial supply chains. The framework allows investigations into measures by foreign governments, organisations and individuals that may cause material harm or threats to China's supply-chain security.

The rules provide for investigations, information collection and other review procedures. Depending on findings, authorities may apply measures affecting trade or other economic activity.

This policy arrives alongside tighter entity-specific export controls. On 22 June, China added 10 US entities to its export control restricted list, including MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, prohibiting exports of dual-use items to those companies except through approved exceptions.

The significance for global critical mineral markets is clear. Supply availability is increasingly determined not only by production capacity, but also by licences, end-use approvals, destination risk and geopolitical relations.

This raises the value of alternative processing and recycling capacity outside China. Companies that rely on Chinese-origin rare earths or other strategic minerals will need stronger compliance systems and more diversified supply strategies.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China is turning critical mineral exports into a more closely monitored strategic supply chain rather than a conventional commodity trade. For buyers, the emerging risk is not simply whether material exists, but whether it can legally and reliably move through the entire chain.

Adani Nuclear Power Capacity Plan Targets 10GW by 2035

Adani

Adani nuclear power capacity could reach 10GW by 2035 as the Indian conglomerate expands into atomic energy alongside thermal, renewable, hydroelectric and gas-based generation. The plan would make Adani one of the most ambitious private entrants into India’s nuclear power sector.

Adani nuclear power capacity development comes as India seeks to widen private participation in nuclear generation. The country needs significantly more reliable baseload power to support industrialisation, electrification and rising digital infrastructure demand.

Adani nuclear power capacity will be developed through Adani Atomic Energy, a wholly owned subsidiary incorporated by Adani Power in February. The business is authorised to generate, transmit and distribute electricity from nuclear and atomic energy.

The group has not disclosed potential sites, reactor configurations or grid integration plans. However, the 10GW target would represent around one-tenth of India’s planned 100GW nuclear fleet by 2047.

Nuclear Adds Baseload Power to Adani’s Integrated Energy Strategy

Adani plans to invest more than Rs2 trillion over the next five years to expand its overall power generation portfolio to 45GW. The programme covers thermal power, renewables, hydroelectricity, pumped storage and supporting transmission infrastructure.

Nuclear adds a different capability to that portfolio. It can provide large-scale, low-carbon baseload electricity while renewable generation expands.

India currently has around 8.8GW of installed nuclear capacity, with nuclear supplying about 3% of national electricity generation in the 2024-25 financial year. Reaching 100GW by 2047 would therefore require a major acceleration in construction.

Private-sector participation could help provide capital, engineering capacity and project execution. However, nuclear projects require long development periods, strict regulation, specialised supply chains and large upfront investment.

For Adani, nuclear could complement its existing thermal and renewable assets. A diversified generation mix gives the group more flexibility as India’s power demand rises.

The company also remains heavily invested in coal generation. Adani Power operates 18.33GW and has 23.72GW of locked-in capacity, giving it a target of 42.05GW by the 2031-32 financial year.

Data Centres and Grid Growth Strengthen Power Demand Outlook

Adani’s nuclear target also fits rising electricity demand from digital infrastructure. The group’s data centre business aims to reach 3GW of capacity by 2030, supported by growth in artificial intelligence and cloud computing.

Data centres require continuous, high-quality power. This increases the value of generation sources that can provide round-the-clock electricity alongside renewable power and storage.

Adani is also expanding hydroelectric and pumped-storage capacity. Through its partnership with Bhutan’s Druk Green Power, the group plans to jointly develop up to 5GW of hydropower and pumped storage.

The portfolio increasingly resembles a full energy system rather than a collection of individual generation assets. Thermal power provides dispatchability, renewables lower emissions, storage balances variability and nuclear could add low-carbon baseload.

This strategy also carries metals implications. Nuclear, grids, data centres and transmission infrastructure require large volumes of copper, aluminium, specialty steels, zirconium alloys and other engineered materials.

If Adani executes even part of the 10GW nuclear target, India’s nuclear supply chain will need more qualified equipment, materials, engineering and fuel-cycle capacity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Adani’s nuclear plan shows that India’s power strategy is moving toward a broader mix rather than a renewables-only model. The industrial opportunity will extend beyond generation into grids, specialty metals, nuclear-grade materials and long-term power infrastructure.

Nickel Industries HPAL Expansion Targets Indonesian MHP Growth Through Acquisitions

Tsingshan

Nickel Industries HPAL expansion will move forward through acquisitions rather than new project development as Indonesia tightens control over additional high pressure acid leach capacity. The Australian producer will acquire stakes in two MHP projects next to its existing Excelsior Nickel Cobalt operation in Central Sulawesi.

Nickel Industries HPAL expansion is strategically important because Indonesia has stopped issuing licences for new HPAL developments since late 2025, according to the company. That makes existing permitted projects increasingly valuable to producers seeking battery-grade nickel growth.

Nickel Industries HPAL expansion covers the planned Teluk Metal Industry and Chengsheng New Energy projects. Together, the stakes would give NI attributable MHP capacity of almost 17,000 t/yr.

Both projects are located in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park and will use ore from NI’s Sampala mine. Their output will feed the electric vehicle battery supply chain.

TMI and CNE Add MHP Capacity Around Existing ENC Platform

NI will pay $169mn for a 17.5% stake in the Teluk Metal Industry HPAL project. TMI has planned nameplate MHP capacity of 38,640 t/yr, giving NI 6,775 t/yr of attributable output.

The transaction also carries construction protection from Tsingshan. The Chinese nickel and stainless steel producer has guaranteed that NI’s investment will be capped at $169mn and that TMI will reach nameplate production by September 2027.

This lowers construction risk for NI and reinforces its relationship with Tsingshan, which already owns an indirect 44% stake in the ENC project.

TMI’s remaining ownership includes Singapore-based Sumber International Investment and a South Korean-Japanese consortium involving LS MnM, Hanwa and another strategic investor. The structure shows how Asian industrial groups are positioning themselves around Indonesian battery nickel supply.

NI is also pursuing a 36% stake in the Chengsheng New Energy HPAL project together with a local partner. The acquisition will be funded by transferring 30% of their combined ownership in the Sampala nickel mine.

CNE has MHP capacity of 28,357 t/yr, with 10,208 t/yr attributable to NI. Commissioning is expected by mid-2027.

The CNE transaction still requires shareholder approval because an NI director is associated with the selling investment firm. That adds a governance step before completion.

Indonesia Licensing Limits Increase Value of Existing HPAL Assets

Indonesia’s decision to stop issuing new HPAL licences changes the economics of nickel expansion. Producers can no longer rely on greenfield development to add battery-grade processing capacity.

This gives existing permitted projects a scarcity premium. Companies seeking growth must acquire stakes, partner with current licence holders or expand existing operations.

For NI, TMI and CNE extend the company’s battery nickel platform around ENC. The 46%-owned ENC project is preparing to produce nickel cathode and nickel sulphate, giving NI exposure further downstream than MHP alone.

The strategy also integrates mining and processing. Ore from the Sampala project will supply both TMI and CNE, linking captive feedstock with HPAL conversion and battery-material output.

That integration matters because Indonesia’s nickel industry is increasingly constrained by ore availability, regulatory approvals and government efforts to manage oversupply.

The policy shift could support nickel prices by slowing future HPAL growth. But it also raises the value of projects already holding development rights.

For NI, acquisitions therefore become more than a growth option. They are now the main route to expanding Indonesian MHP production under a tighter licensing regime.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s HPAL licensing freeze is turning permitted projects into strategic assets. Nickel Industries is responding by buying access to existing capacity, showing how policy can shift competition from project development to asset acquisition.

US Offshore Critical Minerals Review Opens Virginia Seabed Mining Path

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management

US offshore critical minerals development has moved a step forward after the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management opened a request for information and interest covering a potential mineral lease area off Virginia. The review follows an unsolicited proposal from Odyssey Marine Exploration.

US offshore critical minerals activity could target heavy mineral sands, rare earth elements and phosphates across an approximately 1.8mn acre area off the Delmarva peninsula. The proposed zone covers about 7,160 km².

US offshore critical minerals policy is gaining strategic importance as Washington looks for new domestic sources of materials used in defence, electronics, energy and advanced manufacturing. However, the federal notice does not mean BOEM has approved a lease or commercial development.

Responses to the RFI are due by 23 July. The process will help determine industry interest, resource potential and whether the area should move toward a formal leasing stage.

Virginia Seabed Proposal Targets Rare Earths and Mineral Sands

Odyssey Marine Exploration submitted the original lease request in November. The company wants access to offshore mineral resources that could include rare earth-bearing heavy mineral sands and phosphate deposits.

Heavy mineral sands can contain several strategically important materials, depending on geology and mineral composition. Rare earth-bearing minerals are particularly important because the US is trying to reduce dependence on concentrated foreign processing and supply.

Phosphate resources could also add strategic value because phosphorus supports fertilizer production and food security. A multi-mineral offshore resource could therefore attract interest beyond conventional rare earth markets.

But commercial seabed mining remains technically and environmentally complex. Resource definition, extraction methods, permitting, marine ecosystems, processing routes and project economics will all determine whether offshore deposits can become viable supply.

The scale of the proposed area also means exploration would need to identify where commercially meaningful mineral concentrations actually exist. A large lease footprint alone does not guarantee an economic project.

Federal Policy Pushes Seabed Minerals Into Supply Strategy

The BOEM review follows a wider US policy shift toward seabed critical minerals. President Donald Trump signed an executive order in April 2025 aimed at accelerating seabed mineral exploration and commercial recovery permitting.

That policy reflects growing concern over critical mineral security. Washington is looking at domestic mines, recycling, processing, strategic reserves and now offshore resources as parallel supply options.

For the metals market, the significance is still long term. Even if a lease is eventually offered, exploration, permitting, environmental review and development could take years before material reaches commercial markets.

The strategic value lies in optionality. Offshore resources could eventually supplement terrestrial mining and provide another domestic source of rare earths and other critical minerals.

However, the project must still prove that seabed extraction can meet environmental, regulatory and cost requirements. That will be central to whether offshore mineral development becomes a meaningful part of US critical materials policy.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Virginia review shows that the US is widening its critical minerals strategy from land-based mining to the seabed. The opportunity is significant, but offshore resources will only matter if geology, environmental approval and processing economics can align.

Greybull Genesys Acquisition Targets Growth in US Aerospace Components

Genesys Industries

Greybull Genesys acquisition will give the Wyoming-based investment group a larger position in US aerospace components manufacturing as aircraft makers work through historically large order backlogs. Greybull Stewardship plans to help Genesys Industries expand production for aerospace and other specialty markets.

Greybull Genesys acquisition covers a manufacturing group producing aluminum castings, aircraft interiors, fasteners and precision-machined components. Financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

Greybull Genesys acquisition is strategically relevant because Boeing and Airbus face decade-long aircraft backlogs, creating sustained demand for qualified components and manufacturing capacity across their supply chains.

Genesys also serves power generation, medical, industrial and maritime markets, giving the company diversified exposure beyond commercial aerospace.

Aluminum and Titanium Parts Support Aerospace Expansion

Genesys combines three US manufacturing businesses with different positions across the component supply chain. This gives the group exposure to both metal processing and finished aircraft parts.

Latrobe Foundry manufactures aluminum pipe fittings and hardware using 356 and 6061 alloys. These alloys are widely used where manufacturers need a combination of low weight, strength, corrosion resistance and machinability.

Aluminum remains one of the most important materials in aircraft manufacturing. While advanced composites and titanium have gained share in newer platforms, aluminum continues to play a major role in fittings, structures, interiors and supporting hardware.

Sterne Screw Machine expands Genesys into precision fasteners and machined components. The business processes aluminum, titanium, steel and other ferrous and non-ferrous materials.

Titanium is particularly important for high-performance aerospace fasteners because of its high strength-to-weight ratio and corrosion resistance. Qualified titanium components can also carry higher value because aerospace customers require strict material traceability and process control.

Avia Marine adds aircraft interior components to the portfolio. Together, the three businesses give Genesys a wider range of products across casting, machining and aircraft component manufacturing.

That manufacturing mix gives Greybull several potential growth routes. Increasing throughput, adding equipment and improving utilisation could allow Genesys to capture more demand without depending on a single component category.

Boeing and Airbus Backlogs Drive Supplier Capacity Demand

The commercial aerospace market continues to face a fundamental capacity challenge. Boeing and Airbus have years of aircraft orders to deliver, putting pressure on suppliers to expand output while maintaining quality.

This creates opportunities for smaller and mid-sized component manufacturers that already hold customer qualifications. In aerospace, existing approvals and production history can be more valuable than simply adding new machinery.

Greybull plans to provide support for Genesys to scale operations. That strategy fits a wider investment trend toward aerospace manufacturing companies positioned inside established supply chains.

However, scaling aerospace production requires discipline. Suppliers must secure raw materials, skilled labour and machining capacity while maintaining tight dimensional control and delivery performance.

The metal supply chain is also important. Rising aerospace production supports consumption of 6000-series aluminum, titanium, specialty steels and other qualified alloys used in fasteners, fittings and structural components.

For Genesys, diversification into power generation, medical, industrial and maritime applications can help balance aerospace cycles. But aircraft manufacturing is likely to remain the strongest growth driver while global backlogs stay elevated.

The acquisition therefore reflects a broader industrial opportunity. Capital is increasingly moving toward established US manufacturers that can convert aerospace demand into qualified production rather than waiting for entirely new supply chains to be built.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Genesys acquisition shows that aerospace bottlenecks are creating value deeper in the supplier base, particularly for qualified metal components. Boeing and Airbus can increase aircraft targets, but actual deliveries depend on suppliers that can scale aluminum, titanium and precision-machined parts without sacrificing quality.

Energy Fuels VAC Acquisition Builds Mine-to-Magnet Rare Earth Platform

Vacuumschmelze

Energy Fuels VAC acquisition will create one of the most vertically integrated rare earth supply chains outside China by combining upstream mining and separation with commercial magnet manufacturing. The US rare earths and uranium producer will acquire Germany-based Vacuumschmelze for $1.9bn in cash and stock.

Energy Fuels VAC acquisition gives the company immediate downstream exposure to permanent magnets, including sintered neodymium-iron-boron products, as well as cobalt-iron and nickel-iron soft magnetic materials. VAC serves customers across electrification and industrial markets.

Energy Fuels VAC acquisition also addresses one of the biggest weaknesses in western rare earth strategy. Mining and oxide separation alone do not create a complete magnet supply chain. Rare earth metals, alloys, powders and finished magnets must all be produced and qualified.

The transaction will leave VAC as a wholly owned Energy Fuels subsidiary while maintaining its German headquarters. The structure gives Energy Fuels manufacturing assets across North America, Europe and Asia.

VAC Adds Commercial Magnet Capacity to Upstream Rare Earth Assets

VAC brings established permanent magnet manufacturing capability into Energy Fuels’ portfolio. Its Sumter, South Carolina, facility currently has 2,000 t/yr of permanent magnet capacity.

That site has significant expansion potential. Capacity could eventually rise to as much as 12,000 t/yr, creating a large US manufacturing base for NdFeB magnets.

The strategic value is substantial because permanent magnets sit at the end of a complex rare earth value chain. Neodymium and praseodymium provide the main magnetic properties, while dysprosium and terbium can improve performance at elevated temperatures.

Energy Fuels has already started developing those upstream materials. The company produced pilot-scale high-purity terbium oxide in March 2026 and produced its first dysprosium oxide at the White Mesa Mill in Utah in August 2025.

VAC therefore gives Energy Fuels a downstream destination for materials it is increasingly able to separate and refine itself.

The company also plans to acquire Australian Strategic Minerals, which would add commercial-scale rare earth metal and alloy capacity in South Korea and a planned metals plant in the US.

If both transactions are completed and expanded successfully, Energy Fuels would control a chain extending from mineral resources through oxide separation, metal-making, alloying and finished magnets.

US Government Finance Supports Rare Earth Industrial Integration

Government support is becoming central to Energy Fuels expansion. The company has secured a conditional commitment from the US Office of Strategic Capital for a 20-year loan of up to $725mn.

The financing is intended to accelerate expansion of the White Mesa Mill and construction of a US rare earth metals facility. This helps close the gap between separated oxides and magnet-ready metal and alloy products.

VAC has also received US government support. The company secured a $41mn grant from the US Department of State to develop a US metal-making facility.

These investments show that US rare earth policy is moving toward full-chain industrial capability rather than isolated upstream projects. The focus is increasingly on converting mineral resources into qualified finished components.

For automotive, defence, robotics and industrial customers, this matters because secure magnet supply depends on multiple linked stages. Any missing stage can recreate dependence on external processing.

Energy Fuels is therefore pursuing an unusually broad strategy. The company is not only adding production capacity; it is trying to internalise several of the most difficult steps in the rare earth value chain.

The challenge will be integration. Mining, separation, metallurgy and magnet manufacturing require different technical capabilities, customers and qualification systems. The value of the transaction will depend on whether Energy Fuels can connect those operations efficiently at commercial scale.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Energy Fuels is moving beyond rare earth mining into one of the most complete western mine-to-magnet strategies yet attempted. If the VAC and metals acquisitions are integrated successfully, the company could become a major non-China supplier of both heavy rare earth materials and finished NdFeB magnets.

Sherritt Refinery Shutdown Exposes Canada’s Dependence on Cuban Nickel Feed

Sherritt International

Sherritt refinery shutdown plans will halt nickel and cobalt production at the company’s Fort Saskatchewan facility in Alberta after feedstock from Cuba’s Moa joint venture ran out. The move highlights how upstream disruption can strand downstream refining capacity even in a politically secure jurisdiction.

Sherritt refinery shutdown operations will remain in place until mining and processing at Moa can resume and mixed sulfide precipitate shipments to Canada are restored. The company has not given a restart timeline.

Sherritt refinery shutdown is strategically important because Fort Saskatchewan converts Cuban mixed sulfide precipitate into finished nickel and cobalt. The refinery therefore depends on continuity across mining, processing, shipping and sanctions-sensitive trade routes.

Sherritt will use the shutdown period to complete maintenance work. Fertilizer and sulfuric acid production will continue, preserving part of the site’s industrial activity while nickel and cobalt refining is suspended.

Moa Feed Disruption Strands Canadian Refining Capacity

The Fort Saskatchewan refinery relies on the Moa joint venture in Cuba for its nickel and cobalt feed. Ore is mined and processed at Moa into mixed sulfide precipitate before being shipped to Alberta for refining.

That supply chain began to weaken in February when fuel shortages forced the joint venture to suspend mining operations. Feed inventories in Canada subsequently declined, with Sherritt previously expecting available material to last only until mid-June.

The problem then became more complex in May. Sherritt suspended direct participation in the Moa joint venture after the US expanded sanctions on Cuba under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

The company has maintained that suspension, leaving the future of Cuban production uncertain. Without fresh MSP shipments, Fort Saskatchewan cannot continue normal nickel and cobalt refining.

This illustrates a critical supply-chain weakness. Refining assets may sit inside Canada, but their security still depends on where upstream feed originates.

For North American critical minerals policy, that distinction matters. Domestic refining capacity does not create supply independence if raw materials remain tied to politically exposed jurisdictions.

Nickel and Cobalt Supply Security Shifts Toward Feedstock Control

Nickel and cobalt remain important to batteries, superalloys, aerospace, industrial chemicals and defence-related manufacturing. Reliable refining capacity is therefore strategically valuable.

But Sherritt’s shutdown shows that feedstock security must be treated as part of refinery security. A plant without dependable concentrate or intermediate supply becomes an idle asset regardless of its technical capability.

The Fort Saskatchewan site still has value because its processing infrastructure and operating expertise remain in place. Maintenance during the shutdown may help preserve restart readiness if Moa supply resumes.

However, the absence of a clear restart timeline increases uncertainty. Sherritt must either restore the Cuban supply chain or eventually secure another viable feed route if the disruption becomes prolonged.

The situation also raises a broader question for western critical minerals strategies. Governments are investing heavily in domestic processing, but those projects need diversified and compliant raw material sources to remain resilient.

Sherritt’s experience shows why mining, intermediate processing and refining must be planned as one integrated supply chain rather than separate assets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Fort Saskatchewan is a reminder that secure refining capacity is only as strong as its feedstock chain. Canada can host the refinery, but without reliable upstream material, geopolitical risk still determines whether nickel and cobalt actually reach the market.

Cop 31 Electrification Target Could Reshape Global Power and Metals Demand

Cop 31

Cop 31 electrification target proposed by Turkey would lift electricity’s share of global final energy consumption to 35% by 2035, from around 20% today. The IEA is urging countries to support the goal at the November climate summit in Antalya.

Cop 31 electrification target would place power systems at the centre of the next phase of global decarbonisation. Reaching the target would require substantial investment in generation, grids, storage and end-use electrification across transport, buildings and industry.

Cop 31 electrification target also carries major implications for metals demand. More electricity infrastructure would support long-term consumption of copper, aluminium, electrical steel, battery materials and other inputs used in transmission, storage and renewable generation.

The political challenge is financing. Developing countries warned that higher borrowing costs, limited technology access and weak capital availability could prevent them from participating in the transition at the same pace as wealthier economies.

Grid Investment and Finance Will Determine Delivery

Turkey proposed the 35% electrification goal during climate talks in Bonn. The IEA said the target is achievable and could become a major legacy of Cop 31 if governments reach agreement.

However, expanding electricity use requires far more than adding renewable generation. Countries need transmission lines, distribution networks, transformers, substations, storage systems and digital grid infrastructure.

That creates a significant industrial demand signal. Copper will be central to cables, transformers and electrical equipment, while aluminium will remain critical for transmission conductors and lightweight electrical applications.

Battery storage will also become more important as renewable penetration rises. This supports demand for lithium, graphite, copper and other battery materials, while alternative storage technologies could create additional demand for vanadium, zinc and other metals.

Developing economies face the biggest financing challenge. High borrowing costs can make power projects significantly more expensive even when renewable resources are strong.

Turkey and Australia therefore want finance to sit alongside electrification in the Cop 31 agenda. Ministers from Ethiopia, Colombia and other developing countries also stressed that implementation will depend on better access to capital and technology.

Without that support, electrification could widen industrial inequality. Countries with cheaper financing would build grids and clean power faster, while higher-risk markets could remain dependent on older infrastructure and more expensive energy.

Clean Power Source Will Decide Climate Impact

Electrification alone does not guarantee lower emissions. The climate benefit depends on how the additional electricity is generated.

Civil society groups and governments have warned that rising electricity consumption can still be supplied by coal, gas or other fossil fuels. That means the electrification target must be linked with clean generation expansion and fossil fuel transition policies.

The Powering Past Coal Alliance has called for governments to integrate electrification, clean power build-out and coal transition scenarios. It warned that rapid power demand growth could otherwise lock countries into new coal capacity.

Colombia also argued that faster renewable deployment is not enough without addressing the phase-out of fossil fuels. This debate will remain central to negotiations around the broader transition away from fossil energy.

For industrial supply chains, the distinction matters. A clean electrification pathway creates sustained demand for renewable generation, grids, batteries and low-carbon materials. A fossil-heavy pathway may still increase metals demand, but with a much weaker emissions benefit.

The 35% target therefore represents more than an energy consumption metric. It would influence capital allocation, power infrastructure planning and material demand across multiple sectors for the next decade.

The Metalnomist Commentary

A global electrification target would be a major structural driver for copper, aluminium, electrical steel and storage materials. But without affordable finance and clean generation, electrification could expand electricity demand faster than it reduces emissions.

Iluka Rare Earths Offtake Secures Automotive Demand for Eneabba Refinery

Iluka

Iluka rare earths offtake has moved into a binding agreement with an unnamed global automotive company, giving the Australian producer long-term demand visibility for magnet materials including neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium.

Iluka rare earths offtake will begin in 2028 and run for an initial four years under a take-or-pay structure. The agreement covers 1,200t of rare earth oxides, equal to about 10% of Iluka’s planned production over the period.

Iluka rare earths offtake is strategically important because it links future Australian rare earth output directly to the automotive magnet supply chain. The pricing structure also gives Iluka downside protection, with sales priced at the higher of minimum or market-linked values for each product.

The agreement strengthens the commercial case for Iluka’s Eneabba rare earths refinery in Western Australia, which is now more than 50% complete and scheduled for commissioning in mid-2027.

Take-or-Pay Structure Strengthens Project Bankability

The four-year take-or-pay structure gives Iluka greater revenue visibility ahead of Eneabba’s start-up. This is especially important in rare earth markets, where volatile prices and uncertain demand can complicate project financing.

The agreement covers both light and heavy rare earths. Neodymium and praseodymium are core inputs for NdFeB permanent magnets, while dysprosium and terbium improve magnet performance at elevated temperatures.

These materials are critical for electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, industrial motors, robotics and other high-performance applications. Automotive customers increasingly want long-term access to non-China rare earth supply.

The minimum-price mechanism is also important. It reduces exposure to severe price weakness and helps protect project economics against periods of market oversupply or aggressive Chinese pricing.

This model is becoming more common across strategic minerals. Buyers gain secure supply, while producers gain demand certainty and a clearer financing case.

Eneabba Builds Australia’s Downstream Rare Earth Position

Iluka’s 23,000 t/yr Eneabba refinery is central to Australia’s effort to move beyond mineral extraction and into rare earth separation and refining.

Export Finance Australia has confirmed access to a A$1.65bn non-recourse federal government loan for the project. The refinery’s total capital estimate remains at A$1.7bn-1.8bn.

The scale of government support shows how strategically important downstream rare earth processing has become. Australia has strong mineral resources, but long-term value depends on converting those resources into separated oxides that magnet and industrial customers can use.

Construction firm Civmec has been awarded work covering structural, mechanical, piping, electrical and instrumentation activities. With the project already more than halfway complete, execution risk is now shifting from financing toward construction, commissioning and product qualification.

If Eneabba starts on schedule, Iluka could become an important non-China supplier of both light and heavy rare earth oxides. The automotive offtake agreement gives the refinery an early anchor customer and strengthens its route to market.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Iluka’s agreement shows that rare earth diversification is becoming commercially real when long-term offtake, price protection and government finance align. Eneabba’s strategic value lies in supplying qualified NdPr, dysprosium and terbium outside the China-dominated refining chain.

Brazil Flight Demand Hits New May Record as Domestic and International Traffic Grow

Brazil's flight

Brazil flight demand continued to expand in May, with domestic and international airlines carrying a combined 10.6mn passengers. The result marked Brazil’s fifth monthly passenger record this year and reinforced the strength of one of Latin America’s largest aviation markets.

Brazil flight demand rose across both domestic and international routes. Domestic airlines transported 8.3mn passengers, up 1.9% from May 2025 and the highest May volume in Brazilian aviation history.

Brazil flight demand measured by revenue passenger kilometres also increased by 2.5% year on year, while available seat kilometres rose by 2.8%. The figures show airlines are adding capacity broadly in line with passenger growth.

The trend is relevant beyond airlines. Sustained traffic growth supports aircraft utilisation, fleet expansion, maintenance demand and longer-term consumption of aerospace materials including aluminium, titanium and nickel-based alloys.

Domestic Traffic Supports Fleet and Maintenance Demand

Latam’s Brazilian subsidiary carried 3.3mn domestic passengers in May, up 5.3% from a year earlier. Its domestic market share increased to almost 40% from 38.5% in May 2025.

Gol held 31.5% of the domestic market, up from 30.4%, while Azul’s share declined to 28.7% from 31%. This shift shows that passenger growth is also reshaping competition among Brazil’s leading carriers.

Rising passenger volumes increase aircraft utilisation, which supports demand for maintenance, repair and overhaul services. Higher utilisation also accelerates component replacement cycles across engines, landing gear, structures and cabin systems.

For aerospace materials suppliers, this matters because growing flight activity supports recurring demand beyond new aircraft production. Titanium, aluminium, specialty steels and nickel superalloys are consumed through both original equipment manufacturing and aftermarket maintenance.

Brazil also has strategic significance because of Embraer’s domestic manufacturing base. Strong local aviation demand can support a broader aerospace ecosystem across aircraft production, components, maintenance and engineering services.

International Growth Adds to Brazil’s Aviation Momentum

International passenger traffic reached 2.2mn in May, up 4.8% from a year earlier and the highest volume recorded for the month.

International flight demand rose by 4.4% year on year, while capacity increased by 3.5%. Demand therefore grew faster than supply, suggesting firm utilisation of international routes.

Latam accounted for 21.8% of Brazil’s international flight demand and increased its international traffic by 15.7%. Tap followed with a 9.5% share, while Azul held 4.8%.

The expansion of international traffic strengthens Brazil’s role as a regional aviation hub. It also supports widebody aircraft utilisation, international maintenance networks and airport infrastructure investment.

For metals markets, aviation growth is important because aircraft manufacturing remains one of the highest-value demand sectors for titanium and nickel superalloys. Strong passenger traffic ultimately supports fleet replacement and expansion when airlines maintain confidence in future demand.

Brazil’s repeated passenger records therefore offer a positive signal for the wider aerospace supply chain. The immediate effect is stronger aircraft utilisation, while the longer-term implication is greater pressure for fleet capacity, maintenance and new aircraft deliveries.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Brazil’s aviation growth is becoming an industrial signal as well as a transport story. Sustained passenger demand should support aircraft utilisation, MRO activity and longer-term aerospace metals consumption across Latin America.

Mantos Blancos Labor Agreement Reduces Supply Risk as Capstone Eyes Expansion

Capstone Copper

Mantos Blancos labor agreement has reduced near-term operating risk at Capstone Copper’s Chilean mine after both unions representing workers ratified new three-year collective deals. The agreement provides workforce stability as the company studies a meaningful expansion in sulfide milling capacity.

Mantos Blancos labor agreement is strategically important because the site produces copper cathode and remains part of Chile’s broader contribution to global refined copper supply. Labour stability supports production continuity at a time when copper markets remain sensitive to disruptions.

Mantos Blancos labor agreement covers a workforce of 2,928 people, including 1,106 employees and 1,822 contractors. The new deals give Capstone greater operating visibility over the next three years.

The mine has copper cathode production capacity of 60,000 t/yr. First-quarter production reached 10,501t, down 14% from 12,272t a year earlier.

Expansion Could Lift Mantos Blancos Throughput

Capstone is evaluating an increase in sulfide milling capacity at Mantos Blancos from 20,000 t/d to 27,000 t/d. The company filed an environmental permit application for the potential expansion last week.

The proposed increase would strengthen the mine’s ability to process sulfide ore and could improve longer-term copper output if approved and implemented successfully.

This matters because copper supply growth increasingly depends on expansions at existing mines rather than only new greenfield projects. Brownfield projects often have lower execution risk because infrastructure, workforce and operating systems are already in place.

However, the first-quarter production decline shows that current performance still needs attention. Output fell 14% year on year, leaving the mine below the pace implied by its nameplate cathode capacity.

The labour agreement removes one source of uncertainty, allowing management to focus on operational improvement, permitting and expansion planning.

Chile Labor Stability Supports Capstone’s Copper Strategy

Capstone has also secured labour stability at its Mantoverde mine in Chile. Earlier this year, the company reached a three-year collective bargaining agreement with a union representing about half of the workforce there.

Together, the agreements reduce labour-related supply risk across Capstone’s Chilean portfolio. That is important because prolonged strikes in Chile can have meaningful effects on mine output and concentrate availability.

Chile remains one of the world’s most important copper-producing countries, so workforce stability at individual mines has wider market relevance.

For Capstone, the next challenge is to convert that stability into production growth. Mantos Blancos needs stronger output, while the proposed milling expansion must move through environmental approval and capital execution.

The combination of labour certainty and expansion potential gives the company a stronger platform. But the market will still watch operating performance closely after the weaker first quarter.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Capstone has removed a key operating risk at Mantos Blancos just as it considers a larger sulfide milling footprint. The bigger question now is whether labour stability can translate into higher throughput and more reliable copper output.

EU Ferro-Titanium Imports Hit Highest Level Since 2024 as Russian Supply Dries Up

Ferro Titanium

EU ferro-titanium imports rose to their highest level in more than a year in the first quarter, supported by robust demand from steel mills and cored-wire producers. The increase also reflected a market shift as Russian receipts effectively disappeared and European suppliers captured more share.

EU ferro-titanium imports reached 8,431t in January-March, up 19% from a year earlier and 13% from the previous quarter. The total was the highest since the fourth quarter of 2024, when Russian material was still moving into the bloc in significant volumes.

EU ferro-titanium imports were concentrated in Estonia, Poland, Latvia and the UK. These destinations took a combined 5,119t, equal to 61% of the first-quarter total, up from 51% a year earlier.

The figures show how sanctions, scrap availability and steel-sector buying are reshaping the European ferro-titanium market. Demand has improved, but the supply base has changed sharply.

Sanctions Redirect Russian Ferro-Titanium Toward Asia

Russian ferro-titanium flows into Europe have effectively stopped since sanctions were imposed on Russian ferro-alloys in December 2024. That removed a major historical source of supply from the European market.

Before sanctions, the EU was still receiving 2,000-3,000 t/quarter of Russian ferro-titanium. Those flows helped lift imports to 11,661t in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Now, Russian material has shifted toward Asia. China has become the dominant buyer of Russian ferro-titanium, with imports from Russia rising to a record 3,855t in the first quarter, up from 816t a year earlier.

This shift matters because Europe still needs titanium units for steel and cored-wire production. Ferro-titanium is used to add titanium to steel, where it supports deoxidation, grain refinement and stabilisation in selected grades.

Market participants have said some Russian material may still be reaching Europe through third countries in circumvention of sanctions. That claim highlights the continuing importance of origin control, documentation and compliance in ferro-alloy trade.

Non-EU imports, excluding the UK, reached 1,388t in the first quarter, up from 1,179t a year earlier. India was the leading non-EU supplier, shipping 426t, double the year-earlier level but down 38% from the previous quarter.

Scrap Tightness Supports Ferro-Titanium Price Recovery

Titanium scrap availability became another pressure point. EU imports of unsanctioned titanium scrap from Russia fell sharply to just 37t in the first quarter, all into Germany.

This is a major change for the Baltic route. Estonia imported no Russian titanium scrap in the quarter, compared with an average of 601 t/quarter last year.

Lower scrap availability matters because titanium scrap is a key feedstock for ferro-titanium production. Tighter scrap supply can raise production costs and reduce prompt availability for alloy producers.

European standard-grade ferro-titanium prices averaged $4.70-4.97/kg Ti dp/df Rotterdam in the first quarter, down from $5.68-6.02/kg Ti a year earlier. However, the market strengthened through the quarter.

Prices opened at $4.30-4.60/kg Ti and closed at $4.85-5.30/kg Ti. The rally was initially triggered by the insolvency of Austrian trader LL-Resources, although its ferro-titanium subsidiary LLR-Ecotech said operations were unaffected.

The price rise then gained support from stronger mill demand under long-term contracts, prompt buying and quarterly spot enquiries. Tighter titanium scrap availability also added cost pressure.

The rally continued into the second quarter, suggesting that buyers remain sensitive to reduced Russian availability and constrained scrap flows.

For Europe, the key issue is not only volume. The region must secure compliant titanium units for steelmaking while avoiding sanctioned material and managing higher feedstock costs.

The first-quarter data therefore point to a more regionalised ferro-titanium market. Europe is relying more on domestic and approved suppliers, while Russian material is increasingly absorbed in Asia.

EU, Fe-Ti Import

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s ferro-titanium market is becoming a compliance-driven supply chain. The real advantage will go to producers that can secure clean titanium scrap, prove origin and deliver reliable alloy supply into steel and cored-wire demand.

UK Critical Minerals Investment Targets Magnets, Processing and Demand Aggregation

UK, Chris McDonald

UK critical minerals investment will receive a £50mn funding boost as the government tries to strengthen domestic supply chains for rare earth magnets, extraction, processing and recycling. Industry minister Chris McDonald said the funding will be distributed across three priority areas.

UK critical minerals investment is becoming more important as advanced manufacturing, defence, clean energy and electric vehicles increase demand for secure material supply. The new funding is part of the UK’s wider critical minerals strategy.

UK critical minerals investment will include £20mn for a rare earth magnet manufacturing hub, £25mn for a critical minerals accelerator and £5mn for a demand-pooling platform across industries.

The package follows £200mn in earlier support from the National Wealth Fund, Drive35 and the UK Shared Prosperity Fund. However, the scale of the new grant remains modest compared with the capital required to build full-scale critical minerals production.

Magnet Manufacturing Hub Targets Skills and Scale-Up

The largest single allocation will support a hub for rare earth magnet manufacturing. The hub will focus on developing, testing and scaling up production capability.

This matters because rare earth magnets are technically difficult to produce. Manufacturing requires precise control over materials, alloying, powder processing, sintering, coating and final performance.

The hub will also support skills and training. That is strategically important because magnet supply chains require specialised engineering knowledge, not only raw material access.

Rare earth magnets are used in electric motors, wind turbines, defence systems, robotics, aerospace equipment and advanced electronics. Domestic capability could reduce UK exposure to concentrated overseas supply chains.

The funding also aligns with recent UK interest in rare earth recycling. McDonald visited recyclers Seloxium and DEScycle at the Wilton Centre in Teesside, highlighting the role of industrial waste recovery in future supply.

Seloxium previously received a £2mn Innovate UK grant to scale rare earth recovery from industrial waste. That shows recycling is becoming an active part of UK critical minerals policy.

Accelerator and Demand Platform Address Financing Gap

The £25mn critical minerals accelerator will support extraction, processing and recycling projects. This could help early-stage companies move technologies and projects closer to commercial deployment.

Processing is especially important. Critical minerals supply security depends on refining, separation, recycling and conversion capacity, not only mining.

The £5mn demand platform has a different purpose. It aims to pool critical mineral demand across industries, support partnerships and make investment easier.

This is a useful policy tool because many critical mineral markets are too small or uncertain to attract capital without clear buyers. Demand aggregation can help turn scattered industrial needs into bankable market signals.

However, the funding may not be enough on its own. Even small critical minerals projects often require more than £100mn in capital expenditure to reach full-scale production.

The UK therefore needs to use the £50mn as catalytic capital. Its value will depend on whether it unlocks private investment, customer commitments and larger financing packages.

The strategy is directionally strong. But execution will require scale, industrial coordination and long-term procurement support.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The UK’s £50mn package is useful because it targets magnets, processing and demand creation together. But the funding is still small, so the real test is whether it can mobilise larger capital and build commercially qualified domestic supply chains.

China Heavy Rare Earth Exports Stall as Curbs Hit Japan and US

Ru

China heavy rare earth exports stalled in May as export restrictions continued to disrupt shipments of terbium, dysprosium and lutetium products to key buyers. The data show how Beijing’s licensing controls are reshaping trade flows for materials used in magnets, defence, aerospace and advanced manufacturing.

China heavy rare earth exports were especially weak for products exposed to US and Japanese demand. China recorded no May exports of terbium oxide, dysprosium metal and several other key heavy rare earth products, while yttrium oxide shipments fell sharply from April.

China heavy rare earth exports are now being driven less by normal spot demand and more by policy clearance, end-use approval and bilateral tensions. This makes supply planning increasingly difficult for downstream users that need small but critical volumes.

Light rare earth exports moved in the opposite direction. Shipments of cerium oxide, lanthanum carbonate and neodymium metal increased in May as stronger downstream demand and firmer export prices encouraged buyers to purchase more material.

Heavy Rare Earth Controls Tighten Supply to Japan

Japan has been the clearest casualty of China’s heavy rare earth restrictions. It was previously a major consumer of Chinese yttrium oxide, accounting for 57-60% of total shipments.

That flow has changed sharply since January, when Beijing banned exports of dual-use items for Japanese military use or any end-use that could enhance Japan’s military capabilities. The measure followed deteriorating relations after comments on Taiwan by Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi.

China exported only 7t of yttrium oxide to Japan in May, while total May yttrium oxide exports fell to 90t from 161t in April. Germany received 55t, France 14t, Russia 6.9t and South Korea 6.2t.

For January-May, China exported 454t of yttrium oxide. South Korea received 111t, Austria 100t, the US 80t, Germany 69t, Vietnam 40t, Russia 20t and Japan only 14t.

Dysprosium flows were also tightly controlled. China exported 8.4t of dysprosium oxide in May, up slightly from April and March, but all shipments in April-May went to South Korea.

Dysprosium metal exports stopped in May after 3t moved to South Korea in April. Exports to Japan have been suspended since January, after 2t was shipped in December 2025.

Terbium exports were even more constrained. China exported no terbium oxide in May after shipping only 0.2t in April. Total January-May exports reached 5.7t, mostly to South Korea.

Terbium metal exports were almost absent in May, while shipments to Japan have been suspended since January. Lutetium oxide exports were also almost absent after 5t moved to the US in April.

Magnet and Aerospace Users Face Licensing Risk

The latest export pattern matters because heavy rare earths are small-volume materials with large strategic importance. Dysprosium and terbium are used to improve high-temperature performance in rare earth permanent magnets.

Those magnets are critical for electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, aerospace systems, defence equipment and high-performance industrial motors. Yttrium is also important for ceramics, phosphors, alloys, coatings and aerospace-related applications.

Lutetium is a smaller market, but its supply risk is strategically relevant because many specialty rare earths have few alternative sources. Even small interruptions can affect qualified users because substitution is difficult.

The May data show that South Korea has remained a permitted destination for some heavy rare earth products, especially dysprosium oxide. This could reflect licensing approvals for civilian or qualified end uses.

But the broader message is that buyers cannot rely only on market availability. They must also track export licences, end-user reviews and political relations with Beijing.

The divergence between light and heavy rare earth exports is also important. Light rare earth demand can still rise when prices and downstream consumption support trade, while heavy rare earth flows remain vulnerable to strategic controls.

For non-China supply chains, this reinforces the need for separation, metallization, magnet recycling and heavy rare earth sourcing outside China. However, building that capacity will take time, capital and customer qualification.

Japan’s exposure is especially important because the country has deep magnet, electronics, automotive and precision manufacturing industries. Reduced access to yttrium, dysprosium, terbium and lutetium could force buyers to accelerate inventory strategies and non-China sourcing.

The market should therefore treat May’s export data as more than a trade statistic. It is another signal that heavy rare earth supply is becoming a managed geopolitical channel.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s May export data show that rare earth risk is now concentrated in licensing, not only price. For Japan, the US and other advanced manufacturing economies, heavy rare earth security will depend on building supply routes that can survive political friction.