UK scrap export restrictions could cost jobs and billions, BMRA warns

UK scrap

The UK scrap export restrictions debate now carries major economic risk, according to a BMRA-commissioned study. The report finds UK scrap export restrictions would threaten thousands of jobs and curb growth. It argues UK scrap export restrictions would weaken an already strained recycling ecosystem.

EAF transition raises demand for scrap

UK steel is shifting to electric arc furnaces that consume more scrap. If all furnaces used only scrap by 2050, they would need two-thirds of UK supply. UK steelmakers used an estimated 2.6mn t in 2023 amid closures and reduced activity. The UK generates about 10mn t of scrap each year. However, export markets currently sustain prices and liquidity for recyclers.

Policy scenarios show heavy economic losses

The study models multiple restriction options and shows steep losses. A 10% export quota could cut nearly 3,000 jobs and £880mn in five years. A 50% quota could remove over £4bn and 23,000 jobs. A non-OECD ban risks £4.9bn and about 20,000 jobs. BMRA stresses exports are the sector’s “lifeblood” that anchor viable throughput. Meanwhile, government steel strategy consultations continue this year.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Restricting scrap flows to engineer availability risks shrinking the very supply base EAFs need. A smarter path ties domestic EAF ramp-up to price-transparent, open export channels plus quality upgrades. Calibrated incentives beat blunt quotas for long-run circular capacity.