Daqo polysilicon guidance 2025 cut as oversupply persists

Daqo

Daqo polysilicon guidance 2025 was lowered as oversupply pressures the solar supply chain. The company trimmed output to 110,000–130,000t. Daqo polysilicon guidance 2025 now sits well below 2024’s 205,068t. Management again cited weak demand and high inventories.

Prices stabilize on policy moves, but fundamentals remain soft

Polysilicon prices improved from June lows after policy interventions. However, the market still faces a stock overhang and slow demand. Daqo ran at 34pc utilization in the second quarter. Production was 26,012t, in line with guidance. Yet third-quarter output will fall to 27,000–30,000t. Futures on the Guangzhou exchange briefly spiked to Yn55/kg in July. Even so, spot had fallen to Yn32–35/kg in late June. Daqo sees average industry costs at Yn40–50/kg. Therefore, relief depends on sustained price discipline.

Capacity glut delays a full recovery in utilization

Front-loaded Chinese installs distorted near-term demand. May set a record, but June installations plunged after tariff phase-outs. Daqo polysilicon guidance 2025 reflects a multi-year capacity imbalance. Installed or building capacity totals ~3.5mn t/yr. Annual demand averages near 1.2mn t/yr. As a result, industry utilization may stay subdued for years. Daqo sold 18,126t in the second quarter as it withheld volumes. The firm expects to operate at roughly 30–35pc utilization. Management hopes policy enforcement curbs below-cost selling. That could tighten balances into 2026.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This guidance cut underscores a classic downcycle: capacity outruns demand while policy tries to set a floor. Watch run-rates, inventory draws, and realized prices versus the Yn40–50/kg cost band. A durable upturn needs sustained installation growth, not episodic policy spikes.