Iran–E3 snapback sanctions talks enter decisive week

Iran–E3

Iran–E3 snapback sanctions talks face a decisive deadline in Geneva on Tuesday. The Iran–E3 snapback sanctions talks aim to avert the reimposition of international penalties under the JCPOA’s “snapback” clause. However, the E3 warned it could trigger snapback by end-August unless Iran addresses urgent nuclear concerns. Therefore, the Iran–E3 snapback sanctions talks now hinge on concrete proposals that reduce weaponization risk and restore negotiating momentum.

What is at stake in Geneva

The meeting seeks a last-ditch formula to avoid automatic sanctions restoration. Iran’s deputy foreign ministers will meet E3 and EU counterparts for the third time this year. Meanwhile, tensions rose after the June Iran–Israel conflict stalled US-Iran diplomacy. As a result, negotiators must translate general intent into verifiable commitments on enrichment limits and monitoring. The Iran–E3 snapback sanctions talks must show tangible progress to justify any deadline relief.

The snapback clock and leverage

The E3 set end-August to decide on triggering snapback, which completes in 30 days. If untriggered, certain JCPOA-related restrictions expire on 18 October. However, the E3 floated extending the end-August deadline if Iran reopens talks with the US. Iran rejected the offer, arguing the E3 lacks legal standing to trigger snapback. China and Russia signal no appetite to join a snapback move. Therefore, the EU and E3 must balance legal contention with the need for non-proliferation credibility.

Possible outcomes and market implications

A narrow de-escalation deal could pause snapback while talks continue. Such an outcome would likely require caps on enrichment, enhanced IAEA access, and a sequencing plan. However, failure would restore broad UN-level constraints and complicate trade, shipping, and insurance. Energy and metals flows could see renewed risk premia if Gulf tensions rise. Therefore, companies should model compliance scenarios tied to snapback timing and secondary sanctions exposure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Interim guardrails remain the most realistic path given political calendars and trust deficits. Expect a short window where verification steps trade for limited timeline relief. Watch for language on enrichment ceilings and inspection access as signals of durability.

Israel-Iran Escalation Raises Fears for Oil Supply Disruption

Israel-Iran War

Missile Strikes Spark Fears of Regional Energy Crisis

Israel has launched multiple strikes on Iran's nuclear sites, prompting immediate retaliation from Tehran. Iran responded with missile barrages targeting Tel Aviv, marking the most severe escalation in the region in years. While oil infrastructure remains untouched for now, market analysts are alarmed by the potential spread of conflict across oil-producing territories.

Meanwhile, Israel has suspended production at two major natural gas fields and halted pipeline exports to Egypt. Oil traders reacted swiftly to the escalation, pushing Nymex WTI crude prices up 8% to $73/bl. Market participants fear that further Israeli action may extend beyond nuclear sites and into Iran's oil fields, significantly destabilizing the global oil market.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps vowed a "crushing response" after Israel's attacks decimated sections of Iran's air defenses and military command. Reports indicate damage to facilities near Isfahan. The use of ballistic missiles by Iran, which are harder to intercept than drones, has heightened global military and energy market concerns.

U.S. and Allies Brace for Broader Conflict Spillover

The U.S. National Security Council, led by President Donald Trump, convened to discuss possible measures in response to the oil price surge. U.S. forces in the Middle East are now on high alert. Former officials worry that a lack of diplomatic infrastructure could limit Washington’s ability to contain the crisis.

According to former U.S. assistant secretary of state Barbara Leaf, the conflict could spread to Iraq, the Gulf, and Egypt. She also expressed concern that Israel might pursue regime change in Iran, a move that could further destabilize the region.

The immediate leadership losses in Iran, including top military commanders, suggest the Israeli strikes were highly strategic. However, the long-term implications remain uncertain. As tensions intensify, energy markets will likely remain volatile, with risk premiums baked into every barrel traded.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The strikes between Israel and Iran mark a turning point in geopolitical risk for energy markets. The fact that oil infrastructure has been spared — for now — is cold comfort to traders and governments bracing for wider escalation. A prolonged conflict could drastically alter global oil flows, supply chains, and defense-related industrial materials.

Trump Delays Iran Attacks as Strait of Hormuz Risk Keeps Oil Markets Volatile

Trump

Trump delays Iran attacks, but the energy market still sees high Strait of Hormuz risk. He pushed a threatened strike on Iranian energy plants to 6 April at 8 p.m. ET. Trump said talks were progressing, while Iran continued to dispute that negotiations were happening. As a result, the headline suggested de-escalation, but the market response stayed fragile. 

The immediate oil reaction showed how unstable sentiment remains. WTI briefly fell after Trump’s announcement, then rebounded as traders questioned the durability of any diplomatic pause. Reuters later reported WTI near $99.64 a barrel and Brent at $112.57 as ceasefire doubts persisted. Therefore, oil market volatility still reflects physical risk more than political messaging. 

The larger issue is not only the delay itself. The larger issue is whether Strait of Hormuz flows can normalise. Reuters reported that the waterway carries around 20pc of global oil and gas supplies. That makes any military deadline tied to the strait a direct threat to freight, refining, and industrial input costs worldwide. 

Strait of Hormuz Risk Keeps Energy and Supply Chains Under Pressure

Strait of Hormuz risk remains the core market driver. Even when Trump delays Iran attacks, buyers still face uncertainty over tanker flows and regional infrastructure. That uncertainty affects crude, fuel, petrochemicals, and shipping costs at the same time. Consequently, industrial supply chains cannot treat this as a short-lived political shock. 

Iran’s denial of talks also matters for market confidence. Trump has repeatedly described progress in negotiations, but Iranian officials have publicly rejected that narrative. This gap keeps futures markets vulnerable to sudden reversals. Meanwhile, physical buyers still must plan for disruption, not optimism. 

For metals and mining, the pressure can spread quickly. Higher oil and fuel prices raise mine haulage, smelting, and freight costs. Fertilizer and chemicals can also tighten when Gulf shipping risk rises. Therefore, energy geopolitics can quickly become a raw materials margin problem. 

Trump Delays Iran Attacks, but the Market Still Prices Escalation Risk

Trump delays Iran attacks, yet the delay alone does not remove escalation risk. The new deadline simply extends the period of uncertainty into early April. Traders now have to price both possible diplomacy and possible renewed strikes on Iran energy infrastructure. As a result, the market remains trapped between temporary relief and structural fear. 

This dynamic explains why price moves no longer hold. Initial drops now fade when the physical market doubts a real settlement. Reuters noted that skepticism over ceasefire prospects quickly pulled oil higher again. That pattern suggests risk premiums will stay elevated while the strait remains under pressure. 

The key question is no longer whether rhetoric can move prices. The key question is whether shipping conditions and infrastructure security actually improve. Until that happens, every delay will look more like a trading event than a durable solution. 

The Metalnomist Commentary

This story is bigger than one delayed strike. It shows how energy chokepoints can dominate industrial pricing even before physical damage expands. If Strait of Hormuz risk stays high into April, metals, chemicals, and freight markets will all keep pricing instability. 

Iran Port Blockade Sends Crude Futures Above $100

US, Iran war

Iran port blockade fears pushed crude sharply higher after the US announced a blockade of Iranian ports. Brent rose above $102/bl, while WTI climbed near $105/bl. The market reacted immediately because Iran port blockade risk threatens regional energy flows and raises the chance of wider oil supply disruption.

The policy shift matters because it follows failed weekend talks between Washington and Tehran. The US said the blockade will apply to vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports on the Gulf and Gulf of Oman. However, US forces said they will not block navigation to non-Iranian ports through Hormuz. Even so, Iran port blockade headlines were enough to trigger a strong risk premium across crude markets.

This move also deepens uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway remains the world’s most sensitive oil chokepoint. Any action that changes shipping behavior in the Gulf quickly affects futures, freight, and refinery sentiment. As a result, crude futures jump not only on lost barrels, but also on fear of disrupted logistics.

Strait of Hormuz Risk Is Back at the Center of Global Energy Trade

Strait of Hormuz risk is again dominating oil pricing. The US blockade does not formally close the strait, but it changes the commercial and military environment around it. Shipping companies, traders, and insurers will all need to reassess exposure. Therefore, even limited enforcement can have an outsized market effect.

The language from Washington adds to that pressure. President Donald Trump had already warned that ships paying Iranian tolls would not have safe passage. That message signals a tougher US posture toward any shipping arrangement influenced by Tehran. Consequently, market participants now have to price political enforcement risk alongside normal supply-demand fundamentals.

The immediate winner is volatility. Traders now face a market shaped by military policy, failed diplomacy, and uncertain shipping behavior. Meanwhile, refiners and industrial buyers may need to prepare for higher feedstock costs if tensions persist.

Oil Supply Disruption Could Spill Into Metals and Industrial Costs

Oil supply disruption does not stay inside the energy market. Higher crude prices can quickly raise freight, power, petrochemical, and smelting costs across global industry. That matters for metals, fertilizers, and manufacturing supply chains that already face fragile logistics. As a result, crude futures jump can become an industrial inflation signal as much as an energy story.

The bigger issue is duration. A short-lived blockade shock can create a temporary price spike. A prolonged confrontation can reshape regional trade routes and keep risk premiums elevated for longer. Therefore, markets will now watch enforcement, tanker behavior, and any new diplomatic channel very closely.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This is not just another geopolitical headline. It is a reminder that oil markets still respond fastest to chokepoint risk and military signaling. If the Iran port blockade lasts or escalates, the effect will spread beyond crude into broader industrial supply chains very quickly.

Trump threatens Iran's Kharg oil terminal as Hormuz risk jolts energy markets

Iran's Kharg oil

Trump threatens Iran's Kharg oil terminal to pressure Tehran on shipping access. He signaled he could target oil infrastructure if disruptions persist. As a result, energy traders are repricing near-term supply risk.

Hormuz disruption turns security risk into price volatility

Trump threatens Iran's Kharg oil terminal while the Strait of Hormuz remains a chokepoint. The strait carries a large share of globally traded crude and LNG. Meanwhile, shipowners and insurers tend to pull back first, before cargo flows recover.

The threat also raises uncertainty around export loadings, port operations, and escort timelines. However, markets react fastest to ambiguity, not final outcomes. Therefore, spot pricing often tightens even before physical shortages emerge.

Metals and industrial supply chains feel the shock through power and freight

Higher oil and gas prices lift power costs across energy-intensive industries. Aluminium smelters, refineries, and petrochemical chains face immediate margin pressure. Meanwhile, freight rates and war-risk premiums can ripple into copper, steel, and critical minerals logistics.

Trump threatens Iran's Kharg oil terminal at a time when manufacturers already manage stretched inventories. Buyers may shift toward regional supply and longer contracts to reduce spot exposure. As a result, volatility can widen spreads between raw materials, semi-finished goods, and delivered premiums.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This episode shows how geopolitics can reprice industrial inputs faster than fundamentals shift. However, the lasting impact depends on shipping normalization and credible de-escalation signals. The winners will be operators who secure power, freight, and feedstock early.

US Strikes Escalate Middle East Tensions, Impacting Global Supply Chains

President Donald Trump

The United States has dramatically escalated the conflict in the Middle East. US forces conducted airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities. President Donald Trump confirmed these strikes on Saturday evening.

Unprecedented Strikes on Key Iranian Nuclear Sites

The US action marks a significant turning point. US bombers targeted the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites. Fordow is a heavily fortified underground facility. Natanz and Isfahan are also critical to Iran's nuclear program. These facilities have faced Israeli strikes since June 13. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had warned about potential nuclear safety hazards. It cautioned against targeting Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant. Washington-based military experts believe only the US Air Force possesses the munitions to destroy Fordow effectively. This direct US involvement deeply impacts global supply chains.

Geopolitical Ramifications for Commodities and Shipping

The US involvement in the Israel-Iran war is a watershed moment. President Trump previously criticized US military adventures. However, he now claims eliminating Iran's nuclear program justifies US involvement. The markets are closely watching Tehran's reaction. Iran's 2.5 million b/d of crude, condensate, and products exports are immediately at stake. These exports primarily head to China. Furthermore, oil markets fear contagion. Retaliatory attacks could jeopardize shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This choke point is vulnerable for global oil flow. Around 17 million b/d, or a quarter of seaborne oil trade, passes through it.

Rising geopolitical tensions frequently cause commodity prices to surge. Gold prices have already increased significantly. Silver and platinum have also seen gains. Supply chain disruptions are a major concern. The Middle East conflict poses risks for various industrial sectors. This includes critical minerals, vital for many industries. Therefore, instability in this region affects global trade.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The direct US involvement in strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities introduces new levels of uncertainty for global industrial supply chains. Beyond the immediate impact on oil, the long-term implications for critical mineral flows and broader logistics cannot be overstated. Businesses must now brace for potential disruptions and reassess their sourcing strategies.

Trump Iran Talks Put Strait of Hormuz Oil Flows Back at the Center

Trump

Trump’s latest remarks pushed Strait of Hormuz oil flows back into the global energy debate. He said Iranian counterparts sent a valuable signal tied to oil and gas. He linked that signal to the waterway, where ship traffic remains sharply constrained. As a result, markets again focused on supply security rather than diplomacy alone.

Strait of Hormuz Oil Flows Remain the Core Market Risk

The strait remains the market’s most important energy chokepoint. Only a small number of vessels have moved through since the war began. Iranian missile and drone threats continue to deter normal transit. Therefore, even limited political signals can move crude prices quickly.

Iran’s public response shows that negotiation risk remains high. Iranian leaders denied any talks with Washington and questioned whether real fuel supply would follow. Meanwhile, damage to Gulf energy infrastructure still clouds the regional outlook. That gap between rhetoric and logistics keeps traders defensive.

Oil Prices React Before Physical Supply Fully Recovers

Trump’s decision to pause a threatened strike immediately affected price expectations. His remarks suggested a possible diplomatic off-ramp and briefly pressured oil lower. However, the wider war still pushed energy costs higher in the United States and abroad. That reaction shows how headlines now move prices before barrels move.

The price data already reflects that tension. US gasoline reached $3.96 per gallon in the week ending 23 March. At the same time, Nymex WTI for May delivery rose 4 percent to $91.74 per barrel. Consequently, refiners, transport operators, and industrial buyers now face renewed cost pressure.

For metals and industrial supply chains, the message is direct. Higher oil prices raise freight, power, and feedstock costs across manufacturing networks. Middle East disruption also increases insurance and shipping risk for global cargo. Therefore, procurement teams should prepare for volatility even if Trump Iran talks continue.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Energy markets are now trading political signals because physical confidence has weakened. If Strait of Hormuz oil flows remain restricted, cost inflation will spread across heavy industry. The next real test is not rhetoric, but whether vessel traffic and infrastructure stability improve.

Trump Sets Two-Week Deadline for US Attack on Iran

Trump & Ali Khamenei

President Trump set a two-week deadline for US attack on Iran, heightening regional tensions. He said negotiations could still change his decision. However, the warning underscored a credible threat of US military action.

Oil Market and Geopolitical Impact

Oil futures fell as markets reacted to the US attack on Iran deadline. August Brent dropped 2.7% to $76.72/bl in Asian trading. Meanwhile, traders prepared for volatility amid holiday closures. As a result, energy and shipping sectors braced for price swings.

Translating rhetoric into action remains uncertain. Trump has issued similar two-week ultimatums before without follow-through. Therefore, supply chain managers should track both political signals and market data closely.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Trump’s ultimatum illustrates how geopolitical brinkmanship can swiftly ripple through commodity markets. Stakeholders in metals and energy sectors must remain vigilant as policy decisions unfold.

Global Steel Output Declines 4.7% in September

World Steel

Global crude steel output fell by 4.7% year-on-year in September, reaching 143.6 million tons (mn t), according to data from the World Steel Association (Worldsteel). The decline was largely driven by reduced production in China, which accounts for 62% of the world’s steel output.

China’s Steel Struggles

China’s steel production dropped 6% to 77mn t in September, primarily due to weak domestic demand and multi-year lows in steel prices at the beginning of the month. While government stimulus efforts helped improve prices and production later in the month, the sharp drop in the first week outweighed the recovery. Despite this, production in October is expected to rise as steel prices continue to recover.

India: Steady but Facing Oversupply

India, the second-largest steel producer, maintained steady output compared to the previous year, driven by robust domestic demand. The country contributed nearly 10% of global steel production in September. However, as Indian mills expand capacities, there is concern about potential oversupply, with domestic demand unlikely to absorb the increased output. The festive season may temporarily boost consumption in the coming months.

Japan and Iran See Significant Declines

• Japan: Steel output fell by 5.8%, marking the seventh consecutive monthly decline. This was attributed to contracting demand from the auto and construction sectors.
• Iran: The most significant drop globally occurred in Iran, where production plummeted by over 40%. Severe power shortages hindered operations throughout most of September, although production normalized in the final week.

Outlook for Global Steel

As China’s recovery and India’s growth remain pivotal to global steel dynamics, the market faces challenges from oversupply, fluctuating demand, and economic uncertainties. October’s performance will be closely watched as producers adapt to these evolving conditions.

Khamenei death reports shake commodity risk as Iran disputes confirmation

Khamenei

Khamenei death reports raised immediate uncertainty for energy, freight, and metals markets. U.S. President Donald Trump publicly said Ali Khamenei has died after major attacks. However, Iranian officials have not confirmed his death and continue to contest key claims. Khamenei death reports now sit at the center of a fast-moving information battle.

Conflicting statements complicate verification and planning

Competing official statements force companies to plan with imperfect intelligence. Israel’s leadership also described signs of Khamenei’s death, while Iran’s foreign minister publicly questioned the claim. Meanwhile, Washington has already taken precautionary steps on regional security posture.

Operational risk rises when governments shift from diplomacy to force. Recent reporting highlighted elevated tensions tied to nuclear talks and potential escalation. As a result, insurers and shippers often widen risk premiums before facts fully settle.

Supply-chain exposure spans oil, shipping, and metals inputs

Middle East volatility quickly transmits into oil and refined products pricing. Higher fuel costs raise the delivered cost of bulk commodities and industrial inputs. Therefore, aluminum, steel, and chemicals buyers watch freight, power, and feedstock risk together.

Manufacturers also track knock-on effects for critical minerals trade flows. Any wider disruption can tighten availability for strategic materials in defense and high-tech supply chains. Khamenei death reports will keep headline risk elevated until credible, consistent confirmation emerges.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This story shows how geopolitics can reprice supply-chain risk in hours. However, firms can still protect margins with diversified sourcing and scenario-based inventory buffers. The winners will treat verification speed as a procurement capability.

Asia-Pacific Growth Slows as US-Iran Conflict Raises Energy and Trade Risks

ADB(The Asian Development Bank)

Asia-Pacific growth is expected to slow in 2026 and 2027 as the US-Iran conflict and renewed trade uncertainty weigh on the region’s economic outlook. The Asian Development Bank now forecasts regional growth of 5.1% in both years, down from 5.4% in 2025.

Asia-Pacific growth was stronger last year because companies front-loaded exports before US tariff increases, semiconductor demand stayed high, and private consumption remained firm. But the ADB said the Middle East conflict now presents the largest risk to the region.

Asia-Pacific growth remains supported by domestic demand, steady labour markets and public infrastructure spending. However, prolonged disruption could raise energy and food prices, tighten financial conditions and weaken industrial momentum across key manufacturing economies.

Energy Shock Threatens Inflation and Industrial Demand

The ADB based its latest outlook on assumptions finalised in early March, shortly after the war began. Those assumptions expected the conflict to stabilise early, but the bank said later evidence now points to a higher risk of prolonged disruption.

Regional inflation is projected at 3.6% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027 under the early-stabilisation scenario. If the conflict lasts through the third quarter, inflation could rise to 5.6% in 2026.

This matters for metals and manufacturing because Asia remains central to global supply chains for steel, aluminium, copper products, batteries, semiconductors, electronics and automotive components. Higher energy costs could pressure margins, slow investment and reduce demand for industrial raw materials.

Trade uncertainty adds another risk. Export front-loading helped 2025 growth, but that support is fading as manufacturers adjust to tariffs, weaker global trade and shifting procurement strategies.

China, India and Asean Face Uneven Growth Paths

China’s growth is forecast to slow to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027, from 5% last year. Subdued private consumption, property market weakness and slower export expansion are expected to weigh on activity.

The Chinese slowdown remains important for global metals markets. China is the largest consumer of many industrial and battery metals, so weaker growth can quickly affect copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, rare earths and lithium demand expectations.

India’s growth is forecast to fall to 6.9% this year from 7.6% last year, before recovering to 7.3% in 2027. Resilient domestic consumption, recent trade agreements and structural reforms are expected to support the rebound.

Asean growth is projected at 4.6% in both 2026 and 2027, slightly below 4.8% in 2025. Infrastructure spending and domestic demand should provide stability, but weaker exports and fading front-loading effects could limit manufacturing momentum.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The ADB forecast shows that Asia’s growth engine is still running, but energy security and trade risk are becoming stronger constraints. For metals markets, the key issue is whether infrastructure spending can offset weaker exports and higher industrial costs.

Energy-Related Methane Emissions Remain Flat Despite Pledges: IEA

IEA

Major Emitters Include China, Russia, US, and Iran

Energy-related methane emissions stayed flat in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Global emissions from the fossil fuel sector remained at 120mn tonnes, with China, Russia, the US, and Iran accounting for over 50%. The IEA attributes the lack of progress to limited national plans and weak enforcement of pledges to cut methane.

Methane Intensity Declines but Voluntary Action Lacks Verification

Although total methane emissions have not dropped, methane intensity declined slightly due to rising hydrocarbon output. However, only 5% of oil and gas emissions are subject to near-zero verified standards. The IEA notes that 30% of emissions could be cut at no net cost, but recent declines in gas prices have reduced the cost-effectiveness of abatement.

Bioenergy Leaks and Policy Gaps Undermine Progress

Methane emissions from bioenergy sources are twice as high as earlier estimates, primarily due to incomplete combustion. India alone accounts for 20% of these emissions. Additionally, the IEA highlights that only 30 countries’ climate plans specifically address methane, with just nine setting quantifiable targets. In the US, state-level laws remain despite federal rollbacks, but low gas prices weaken incentives for emissions control.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The IEA’s report reveals a critical gap between climate pledges and implementation. Without enforceable methane abatement policies and clearer investment incentives, both the fossil and bioenergy sectors risk derailing global decarbonization timelines.

Refined Zinc Deficit Forecast Signals Tight Balance Despite Mine Supply Growth

ILZSG

Refined zinc deficit conditions are expected in 2026 as global demand slightly outpaces refined metal supply, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group. The group forecasts a refined zinc deficit of 19,000t this year.

The refined zinc deficit reflects a market where demand growth remains modest but supply growth is also limited. Global refined zinc demand is expected to rise by 1.3% to 14mn t, while refined zinc output is forecast to increase by 1.4% to 13.99mn t.

The refined zinc deficit is not large, but it highlights a fragile balance in a metal tied closely to galvanised steel, infrastructure, automotive production, construction and industrial manufacturing. Even small shifts in mine output, smelter operations or steel demand could move the market back into surplus or deeper deficit.

China, Europe and India Support Zinc Demand

China remains the world’s largest zinc consumer and will continue to anchor demand growth. ILZSG expects Chinese refined zinc demand to rise by 1.8% in 2026, following 1.9% growth in 2025.

European demand is forecast to rise by 1.1% this year, slowing from 3.5% growth last year. US demand growth is also expected to moderate to 1.4%, after expanding by 7% in 2025.

India and South Korea are expected to post higher refined zinc demand. Their growth reflects continued industrial activity, infrastructure needs and manufacturing consumption.

The Middle East outlook is weaker. Iran’s zinc usage is expected to decline sharply because of major infrastructure damage, especially in the steel sector, caused by the war. Demand in Saudi Arabia and the UAE is also expected to fall because of refined metal import disruption and economic instability.

This regional split matters for zinc producers and traders. Growth in Asia may support consumption, but slower demand in Europe and the US, combined with disruption in the Middle East, limits the strength of the global demand recovery.

Mine Supply Rises Slowly as Smelters Face Concentrate and Energy Constraints

Global zinc mine production is forecast to rise by only 0.3% to 12.55mn t in 2026. This follows a stronger 2025, when mine production rose by 4.8%, or 5.9% excluding China.

This year’s mine growth will be supported by higher output in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Portugal and China. New capacity in China, including the Huoshaoyun mine, is expected to contribute to supply.

However, declines in Peru, Sweden and the US will partly offset these gains. Lower output is expected at Antamina, Garpenberg and Red Dog, three important zinc-producing operations.

Refined zinc output is expected to rise by 1.4% to 13.99mn t. Chinese refined production is forecast to grow by 3% as new capacity starts up, following a 6.7% increase last year.

European refined output is also expected to rise, supported by Boliden’s Odda smelter expansion in Norway and the planned restart of Russia’s Verkhny Ufaley smelter. However, higher energy costs and limited concentrate availability continue to pressure several European producers.

Outside Europe and China, refined zinc production is expected to increase in South Korea but decline in Iran and Canada. This shows that refined zinc supply remains exposed to regional energy costs, concentrate access and operational disruption.

The lead market presents a different picture. ILZSG expects refined lead supply to exceed demand by 109,000t in 2026, with output rising by 1.3% to 13.83mn t and demand increasing by 1.1% to 13.72mn t.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The refined zinc deficit forecast points to a market that is balanced on a narrow edge, not structurally short. Zinc’s outlook will depend on whether Chinese smelter growth and new mine capacity can offset weaker regional demand and concentrate constraints.

Kety Aluminium Extrusion Volumes Rise as Feedstock Volatility Clouds Outlook

Kety Aluminium

Kety aluminium extrusion volumes rose in the first quarter as the Polish aluminium extruder benefited from stronger sales, high plant utilisation and improved margins. Grupa Kety sold 27,200t of extruded products in January-March, up 7% from a year earlier.

Kety aluminium extrusion volumes were supported by 85% capacity utilisation at the company’s extrusion plant. The result showed solid demand for extruded products despite rising aluminium prices and growing uncertainty across European supply chains.

Kety aluminium extrusion volumes also helped lift profitability. Net profit rose by 20% on the year to 145mn zlotys, supported by stronger margins across its business divisions, including extruded products and aluminium construction systems.

However, the company is cautious about the rest of 2026. The US-Israel and Iran war has driven aluminium prices, billet premiums and petrochemical feedstock costs higher, creating longer-term margin and demand risks.

Rising Billet Premiums Support Short-Term Margins

Kety has benefited in the short term from rising feedstock prices. The company was able to pass higher aluminium costs to customers while processing material from its own inventories.

This timing supported margins in the first quarter. Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange have risen by around 15% since the start of the Middle East war, while European aluminium billet premiums have more than doubled.

For an extruder holding inventory, a rising feedstock market can create temporary earnings support. Material purchased earlier at lower prices can be processed and sold into a higher-price environment.

Kety expects its extrusion plant utilisation to remain strong in the second quarter. This suggests that order flows have not yet weakened sharply despite higher input costs.

However, the benefit is unlikely to last indefinitely. If aluminium prices and billet premiums remain elevated, customers may resist further increases or delay orders.

This is the key risk for European extruders. Higher input prices can lift revenues in the short term, but they can also weaken downstream demand if construction, transport, industrial and consumer goods customers face margin pressure.

Feedstock Security and Cost Inflation Shape 2026 Risk

Kety said its feedstock supplies have been only slightly affected since the start of the Iran war. The company needed to diversify sources for small quantities, but it has not reported major supply disruption.

The company maintains around four to six weeks of feedstock needs in inventory. It also contracts new supplies within a two-month horizon, giving it some flexibility but not full insulation from market volatility.

Kety produces about half of the billet it needs for its extrusion operations. Its own scrap accounts for about 75% of the feedstock used in billet production.

This partial integration gives Kety a useful buffer. Internal billet production and scrap use reduce dependence on external billet markets, where premiums have surged.

Still, the company warned that continued increases in aluminium prices, billet premiums and petrochemical feedstock costs could weigh on performance later in 2026.

Chief executive Roman Przybylski said a short-term aluminium price surge may help earnings, but longer-term increases are worrying. He warned that higher costs could contribute to prolonged stagflation when governments have limited room to stimulate markets after heavy Covid-19 spending.

For European aluminium processors, the issue is becoming structural. Supply disruption, higher energy-linked costs, billet premium inflation and weaker macroeconomic conditions can all squeeze margins at the same time.

Kety’s first-quarter performance was strong, but its outlook shows how quickly favourable inventory timing can turn into cost pressure if feedstock inflation persists.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Kety’s results show how aluminium processors can benefit briefly from rising feedstock prices when inventories are well managed. The strategic risk is that sustained billet premium inflation could weaken downstream demand and turn short-term margin support into a longer-term volume problem.

US advises Israel embassy staff to leave as Gulf tensions rise

US, Israel

US advises Israel embassy staff to leave after Washington authorised departures for non-emergency personnel. US advises Israel embassy staff to leave due to rising safety risks. As a result, businesses should reassess regional exposure and continuity plans.

US advises Israel embassy staff to leave as US–Iran tensions intensify around the Mideast Gulf. The US has repositioned naval and air assets in the region. Meanwhile, negotiators reported progress after talks in Geneva.

Diplomats will start technical discussions in Vienna next week. However, the risk of strikes before those talks still hangs over the region. Iran warned it would treat US assets in the Gulf as targets.

Why the travel advisory matters for energy and shipping risk

This advisory raises the perceived probability of broader regional disruption. Therefore, markets will watch oil flows, insurance pricing, and freight risk premiums closely. Aviation also faces rerouting costs when regional risk rises.

GCC hydrocarbon states host key infrastructure and US bases. However, escalation could pressure logistics corridors tied to refined products and petrochemicals. This can spill into metals demand through energy costs and project delays.

What businesses should watch in the next week

Next-week technical talks will shape near-term risk sentiment. Meanwhile, corporate security teams should monitor embassy guidance and airline capacity. Firms should also stress-test staffing and supplier dependencies in Israel and nearby hubs.

Procurement teams should plan for volatility in fuel, freight, and lead times. Therefore, buyers may accelerate orders for critical spares and industrial inputs. Some may also widen approved supplier lists outside the region.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This move signals precaution, not inevitability. However, risk pricing can change faster than physical disruption. The smartest operators will pre-position inventory and lock flexible logistics options.

Asian Aluminium Premiums Stay Subdued as QMJP Offers Test Buyer Resistance

Aluminum

Asian aluminium premiums remained subdued this week as buyers assessed sharply higher quarterly cif main Japan port offers for July-September delivery. Two major producers opened QMJP negotiations at $460/t and $480/t, far above the April-June settlement of $350-353/t.

Asian aluminium premiums are now being pulled in two directions. Western-origin metal has tightened after the Iran war disrupted supply, giving producers a basis for higher offers. However, weak demand and greater availability of alternative units are limiting spot-market momentum.

Asian aluminium premiums also remain below the new QMJP offers. Current spot indications are around $320-380/t, while P1020 fca Korea indications for non-Russian material were heard at $320-350/t.

The gap between producer offers and spot levels suggests buyers may resist paying the full proposed premium. If QMJP settles above $400/t, non-western brands could continue trading below the benchmark.

Western-Origin Tightness Supports Higher Producer Offers

The higher QMJP offers reflect tighter availability of western-origin aluminium in Asia. Supply disruption linked to the Iran war has reduced confidence in some traditional flows, pushing producers to test stronger premium levels.

This is important because QMJP remains a key reference for aluminium trade across Asia. A high settlement can influence physical premiums, contract pricing and buyer behaviour beyond Japan.

However, the market is not uniformly tight. Some Asian smelters have received enquiries and are willing to sell into Europe or offer small volumes in Asia. Others prefer to wait for clearer direction from the QMJP negotiations.

This cautious behaviour shows how benchmark talks can freeze spot activity. Buyers do not want to commit at high levels before the benchmark is settled, while sellers do not want to underprice material if premiums rise.

The immediate market signal is therefore uncertainty, not shortage. Western-origin units command support, but broader aluminium availability remains mixed.

Stranded Wire and Russian Units Cap Spot Upside

Alternative supply is limiting the impact of higher QMJP offers. Stranded wire and Russian-origin aluminium units are weighing on sales of other brands, especially where buyers are more price-sensitive.

China’s exports of aluminium stranded wire rose sharply in April. Shipments under HS code 761490 increased by 166% year on year to 15,567t.

South Korea and Vietnam absorbed much larger volumes. Chinese shipments to South Korea surged to 2,911t, while shipments to Vietnam climbed to 2,288t. Exports to Thailand also rose to 619t.

These flows matter because stranded wire can create substitute supply pressure in regional aluminium markets. When alternative units are available, buyers have less urgency to accept premium increases for standard brands.

Russian-origin aluminium also remains a price-sensitive factor. Some buyers continue to avoid Russian material for policy or corporate reasons, but availability still affects regional market balance and non-western brand pricing.

Demand remains the bigger constraint. Buyers are likely to reduce volumes if both LME prices and QMJP premiums stay high. This limits the ability of producers to convert tight western-origin supply into broad spot-market price gains.

The next quarter may therefore produce a divided market. Western-origin material could secure stronger contract premiums, while non-western and alternative units trade at discounts.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Asia’s aluminium market is not rejecting higher premiums; it is questioning which metal deserves them. The real split is between tight western-origin supply and a softer regional market still supported by stranded wire, Russian units and weak demand.

Pakistan-Flagged Vessels Through Hormuz Offer a Limited but Important Shipping Signal

Hormuz

Pakistan-flagged vessels through Hormuz now offer one of the clearest signs of limited maritime easing. Iran approved 20 Pakistani-flagged ships to sail through the strait. The agreement allows two vessels per day. As a result, Pakistan-flagged vessels through Hormuz have become an important confidence signal for regional shipping.

The move matters because the strait has remained heavily restricted since the war began. Vessel traffic has been constrained by the threat of Iranian attack. Even small reopening measures can influence tanker sentiment and freight expectations. Therefore, Pakistan-flagged vessels through Hormuz now matter beyond Pakistan alone.

Two Pakistani-linked crude shipments have already shown that selective transit remains possible. One cargo moved from Das Island toward Karachi. Another passed Hormuz carrying crude from Ras Tanura to Karachi. Consequently, the agreement suggests controlled flows can continue under political protection.

Strait of Hormuz Shipping Still Faces Selective Access, Not Full Normalisation

Strait of Hormuz shipping remains far from normal despite this development. The new arrangement covers only a limited number of Pakistani-flagged vessels. It does not represent a broad reopening for global tanker traffic. However, it does show that diplomatic channels can still produce narrow shipping corridors.

This distinction is critical for energy and freight markets. Selective access may help individual cargoes move, but it does not remove wider war risk. Insurers, shipowners, and commodity buyers will still price in disruption. As a result, Gulf crude flows remain vulnerable to sudden policy or military shifts.

The political message also deserves attention. Pakistani officials described the arrangement as a step toward peace and diplomacy. Iran’s recent public appreciation of Pakistan’s support adds context to the deal. Therefore, the shipping approval appears linked to both maritime necessity and political alignment.

Gulf Crude Flows Gain a Small Relief Valve but Not a Lasting Solution

Gulf crude flows may gain temporary relief from this agreement. Allowing two vessels per day creates a narrow outlet for cargo movement. That could slightly ease local congestion and support short-term trade continuity. Meanwhile, the broader market still faces deep uncertainty over sustained access.

For oil and industrial supply chains, the implications remain mixed. Any successful passage supports confidence in regional logistics. Yet selective approvals also highlight how politicised shipping has become. Consequently, freight planning now depends as much on diplomacy as on port and tanker availability.

The wider lesson is clear. Markets should not mistake limited transit approvals for structural stability. Pakistan-flagged vessels through Hormuz may reduce immediate pressure for some cargoes. However, they do not remove the core risk surrounding the strait.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This is a useful shipping signal, but not a true reopening story. The Strait of Hormuz remains a geopolitical chokepoint where access can still depend on politics more than market logic. Until broader vessel traffic normalises, oil, freight, and industrial supply chains will stay exposed to volatility.

Johnson Matthey PGM Outlook Points to Industrial Demand as Deficits Persist

Johnson Matthey

Johnson Matthey PGM outlook shows that industrial demand will remain a key support for platinum group metals in 2026, even as automotive, investment and jewellery demand weaken. The recycler expects platinum, ruthenium and iridium markets to remain in deficit.

Johnson Matthey PGM outlook also shows a split market. Palladium and rhodium may move into surplus as higher prices encourage more autocatalyst recycling, while mine supply remains constrained.

Johnson Matthey PGM outlook is strategically important because PGMs sit across automotive catalysts, electronics, chemicals, hydrogen, hard disks, jewellery and industrial processes. Demand is changing, but the metals remain deeply embedded in high-value manufacturing.

The report suggests that PGM markets are not moving in one direction. Industrial demand is resilient, recycling is recovering, mine supply is under pressure, and vehicle technology choices are reshaping long-term consumption.

Recycling Rises as Mine Supply Remains Constrained

Autocatalyst recycling increased in 2025 after a long period of weak collection. Low PGM prices had discouraged recycling, while high vehicle costs led consumers to keep cars longer.

Higher PGM prices have now started to unlock hoarded material across the supply chain. Johnson Matthey expects secondary supply to rise by 8% as vehicle scrappage rates improve.

This recycling growth could support palladium and rhodium availability. Both metals are heavily linked to internal combustion engine catalysts, and higher recovered supply may push those markets into surplus.

Mine supply remains less responsive. Johnson Matthey expects PGM mine supply to fall because of lower South African production and a 10% decline in palladium output from Norilsk Nickel.

Producers remain cautious about greenfield projects and mine expansions despite higher basket prices. The industry needs confidence in future prices, not only current price strength, before committing capital.

This is especially important in South Africa. Platinum dominates the country’s PGM production mix, so sustained strength in platinum prices could eventually support investment. But palladium and rhodium remain exposed to the long-term decline of combustion engine demand.

Data Centres, Hydrogen and Electronics Support Industrial PGMs

Ruthenium remains one of the tightest PGM markets. Its deficit reached nearly 300,000oz in 2025, equal to almost a quarter of annual consumption.

Demand from chemicals, electronics and data centre-related hard disk production has strengthened ruthenium use. Strategic buying, especially in China, has also tightened market conditions.

Chinese export controls on ruthenium and ruthenium-containing materials have reduced supply availability outside China. This makes ruthenium a more sensitive critical mineral for industrial buyers.

Data centre construction for artificial intelligence is increasing demand for hard disks that use platinum and ruthenium. Wider electronics and electrical applications also remain supportive, with PGM use in those sectors rising by 8% in 2025 to 1.25mn oz.

Iridium demand is expected to rise slightly because of green hydrogen projects in Europe. This supports its deficit outlook, although hydrogen demand still depends on project execution and electrolyser deployment.

The US-Iran war adds uncertainty. Petrochemical demand for PGMs could weaken if Middle East oil and gas operations remain disrupted, while higher feedstock and operating costs may pressure industrial users.

The conflict could also affect vehicle demand. Higher fuel prices may push consumers toward electrified vehicles, but the impact on PGMs depends on the technology mix. Battery electric vehicles reduce PGM use, while hybrids still require catalysts.

Johnson Matthey expects automotive PGM demand to fall by 4% in 2026, broadly in line with lower global internal combustion engine production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

PGMs are entering a more selective demand cycle. Palladium and rhodium face pressure from recycling and combustion-engine exposure, while platinum, ruthenium and iridium are gaining support from industrial, data-centre and hydrogen-linked demand.

Carpenter Aerospace Demand Lifts Guidance as OEMs Secure Specialty Alloy Supply

Carpenter

Carpenter aerospace demand is strengthening as aircraft manufacturers and defence customers move to secure specialty alloy supply ahead of higher production rates. Pennsylvania-based Carpenter Technology raised its annual operating income guidance to $700mn-$705mn, up from its earlier $660mn-$700mn range.

Carpenter aerospace demand is being driven by commercial aircraft production ramps, urgent customer delivery requests and stronger engine-related sales. The company said order intake remains clear and accelerating, especially as Boeing targets an increase in 737 MAX output from 42 to 47 aircraft a month this summer.

Carpenter aerospace demand also reflects growing concern that the aerospace supply chain is not ordering material quickly enough. Chief executive Tony Thene said the company received more urgent delivery requests during the quarter as customers worked to avoid line shutdowns in some applications.

The result confirms that specialty alloys remain a bottleneck in the aerospace recovery. Aircraft production cannot ramp without qualified melt capacity, engine alloys, fastener materials, forgings, bar, billet and tight metallurgical control.

Aerospace and Defence Customers Pull Material Forward

Aerospace and defence remained Carpenter’s largest end-use market, accounting for 54% of quarterly revenue. Sales in the segment rose by 17% from a year earlier to $435.6mn.

Engine sales increased by 44% year on year, showing strong demand for high-performance alloy materials used in demanding temperature and stress environments. Fastener sales also rose by about 9-10%, reflecting stronger aircraft build and maintenance activity.

Carpenter’s specialty alloys operations sold 51.8mn lb during the quarter, up 16% from the same period last year. Lead times remained fairly consistent during the fiscal third quarter, but the company expects them to extend in the near term.

This is an important signal for aerospace buyers. When lead times start to move out, OEMs and tier suppliers often increase forward ordering to protect production schedules.

Defence demand was already elevated before the US-Israel war against Iran. Carpenter said the conflict has not yet affected current orders, but future replenishment demand could create another layer of defence-related alloy buying.

Melt Expansion Becomes Strategic Supply Chain Insurance

Carpenter is expanding primary and secondary melt capacity through brownfield projects. Construction is underway and on schedule, with key equipment deliveries now starting.

This capacity expansion matters because aerospace and defence alloys require qualified melting routes. Customers cannot easily substitute suppliers when materials are tied to engine, fastener, structural or mission-critical applications.

Brownfield expansion also offers a faster and lower-risk route than building entirely new facilities. It allows Carpenter to increase output from an established production base with existing technical capability and customer approvals.

The company’s wider end markets were mixed. Energy sales rose by 44% to $50.5mn, while industrial and consumer revenue increased by 8% to $78.1mn. Medical sales fell by 29% to $51.7mn, and transportation declined by 12% to $19.3mn.

Total quarterly profit rose by 46% to $139.6mn, while revenue increased by 11% to $811.5mn. The performance shows that aerospace, defence and energy demand are carrying the strongest momentum.

Carpenter will also move through a leadership transition. Current president and chief operating officer Brian Malloy will become chief executive on 1 July.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Carpenter’s guidance increase shows that aerospace ramp-up is already tightening the specialty alloy chain before aircraft output reaches full targets. The critical question is whether melt capacity, lead times and qualified material supply can scale fast enough to prevent the next bottleneck from moving upstream.

Century Aluminum 2026 Guidance Holds as US Smelter Restart Supports Supply

Century Aluminum

Century Aluminum 2026 guidance remains unchanged as the US primary aluminium producer continues to ramp idled and disrupted capacity in South Carolina and Iceland. The company maintained its full-year shipment target of 630,000t of primary aluminium.

Century Aluminum 2026 guidance is being supported by the restart of more than 50,000t of idled capacity at the Mt Holly smelter in South Carolina. The restart began on 16 April, and the plant is expected to return to full production by the end of June.

Century Aluminum 2026 guidance also depends on the recovery of the Nordural aluminium smelter in Iceland after an electrical equipment failure in October 2025. The company expects the facility to return to nearly full production by the end of July.

First-quarter shipments fell by 27% from a year earlier to 122,865t. However, revenue rose by 2.4% to $649.2mn, supported by stronger realised aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange and higher regional premiums.

Mt Holly Restart Adds Domestic Aluminium During Supply Disruption

Mt Holly produced 40,000t of aluminium in the first quarter, down 4.8% from a year earlier. The restart of idled capacity should increase output through the second quarter and strengthen domestic US supply.

The timing is important. The US-Israel war with Iran has disrupted Middle East aluminium production and exports, tightening supply availability for western buyers.

Century has already placed volumes from the Mt Holly expansion with US customers. This shows that domestic primary aluminium is gaining strategic value as buyers seek supply outside disrupted maritime and regional trade routes.

The Mt Holly restart also fits the wider US policy environment. Higher Section 232 aluminium tariffs have made domestic primary aluminium production more attractive and encouraged investment in US capacity.

For downstream users, additional Mt Holly volumes can support packaging, automotive, construction, aerospace and industrial supply chains that need reliable domestic metal.

Iceland Recovery and Oklahoma Project Shape Growth Outlook

Nordural remains the key recovery asset outside the US. The Icelandic smelter produced only 29,000t in the first quarter, down 61% from a year earlier after the October electrical equipment failure.

Century expects Nordural to return to nearly full output by the end of July. That recovery is essential if the company is to meet its unchanged shipment guidance.

The company is also moving toward a larger strategic expansion. It expects to make a final investment decision and break ground by year-end on its joint Oklahoma smelter project with Emirates Global Aluminium.

That project would strengthen US primary aluminium capacity at a time when domestic supply security is becoming more important to industrial policy. It also links Century to EGA, one of the world’s major aluminium producers.

Century’s first-quarter profit increased sharply to $337.5mn from $29.7mn a year earlier. The result was boosted by the $287.9mn sale of its Hawesville, Kentucky, site to data centre infrastructure developer TeraWulf and a $33mn insurance gain related to the Iceland equipment failure.

The financial result therefore includes major one-time benefits. The operating story remains focused on whether Mt Holly and Nordural can ramp smoothly and whether the Oklahoma project can move from planning to execution.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Century’s unchanged guidance shows how valuable restart capacity has become in a disrupted aluminium market. The strategic question is whether US primary aluminium can move from temporary supply support to a durable investment cycle built around power, tariffs and domestic industrial demand.