EU probe MMG Anglo American nickel deal puts ferro-nickel supply at risk

MMG Anglo American

The EU probe MMG Anglo American nickel deal signals deep concern over European ferro-nickel security and stainless steel costs. Regulators fear the acquisition could divert low-carbon Brazilian ferro-nickel away from EU buyers and tighten an already fragile supply chain. As a result, the EU probe MMG Anglo American nickel deal sits at the intersection of antitrust, decarbonisation policy and China-related resource security.

EU probe MMG Anglo American nickel deal and ferro-nickel access

The EU probe MMG Anglo American nickel deal focuses on Anglo’s Barro Alto and Codemin ferro-nickel complexes in Brazil. These assets supply low-carbon ferro-nickel that European stainless mills increasingly value under upcoming CBAM rules. However, Brussels fears that MMG, controlled by China Minmetals, could redirect tonnages to Chinese or affiliated buyers.

The commission’s initial review found the business holds substantial market power in low-carbon ferro-nickel. European stainless producers have limited alternative options that meet both technical and carbon-intensity requirements. Therefore, any post-merger supply squeeze could raise input costs, compress margins and weaken EU mills against Asian competitors.

Market power, Chinese ownership and rejected remedies

Regulators rejected MMG’s first remedy package, which relied mainly on behavioural commitments and a supply agreement. Officials argued that these measures lacked structural guarantees and could be hard to monitor over time. Meanwhile, European industry groups warned that the deal would deepen Chinese influence over the nickel value chain.

European buyers also link the case to wider CBAM and decarbonisation pressures. They fear losing access to low-carbon ferro-nickel just as carbon costs rise and imports from Asia intensify. As a result, the EU probe MMG Anglo American nickel deal has become a test case for how Brussels balances open markets with strategic metals security. The commission now has until 20 March to clear, block or condition the acquisition, with possible timeline extensions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU probe MMG Anglo American nickel deal highlights how nickel and ferro-nickel have moved into the heart of Europe’s strategic calculus. Antitrust scrutiny now intertwines with carbon policy and China risk, raising the bar for deals involving critical alloy feedstocks. Stainless producers that rely on low-carbon Brazilian ferro-nickel should prepare contingency sourcing strategies, regardless of the eventual ruling.

Anglo American Q1 Copper Output Drops as Nickel Rises and Manganese Slumps

Anglo American

Anglo American's Q1 copper output declined 15% year-on-year to 168,900 tonnes due to planned production cuts in Chile. While Peru’s higher ore grades partially offset losses, the drop in Anglo American Q1 copper output reflects the company’s broader operational recalibrations in South America.

Copper Falls, Nickel Climbs Amid Strategic Asset Reallocation

Anglo American continues to manage regional output variability, with Peru boosting copper grades while Chile scaled back production. For 2025, the miner expects 690,000–750,000 tonnes of copper output. Meanwhile, nickel production rose 3% to 9,800 tonnes in Q1, thanks to stable operations at Brazil’s Barro Alto mine.

However, Anglo is preparing to exit the nickel sector altogether. It plans to sell its Brazilian nickel assets to China’s MMG later this year, signaling a strategic pivot amid shifting commodity markets and capital priorities.

Manganese and PGM Output Weaken on Weather and Suspension Impacts

First-quarter manganese ore output plummeted 60% year-on-year to 317,000 tonnes. The drop was tied to the suspension of Australian operations following cyclone damage in 2023. Sales are expected to resume in Q2 2025.

Platinum group metals (PGM) production also fell 17% to 696,000 ounces. Anglo American attributed the decline to reduced concentrate purchases and adverse weather at its Amandelbult mine in South Africa, where heavy rains impacted mined output.

Guidance Holds Steady Despite Operational Headwinds

Despite the declines in copper and manganese, Anglo American maintained its 2025 guidance. It forecasts 37,000–39,000 tonnes of nickel and expects export sales of manganese to resume shortly. The company continues to rebalance its portfolio amid market volatility, focusing on long-term asset optimization.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Anglo American’s mixed Q1 results underscore the volatility facing diversified miners. The drop in copper output aligns with a strategic slowdown, while stable nickel production—soon to be divested—hints at broader portfolio streamlining. Weather and logistics remain persistent risks across multiple assets.

Anglo American Copper Output Rises as Chile Offsets Quellaveco Grade Decline

Anglo American, Copper

Anglo American copper output rose slightly in the first quarter as stronger Chilean mine performance offset lower grades at Quellaveco in Peru. The global mining group produced 170,400t of copper during the quarter, up 1% from a year earlier.

Anglo American copper output was supported by higher throughput at Los Bronces and Collahuasi, along with improved recoveries at Collahuasi. Chilean copper production increased by 9% to 97,000t, while Peruvian output fell by 8% to 73,400t.

Anglo American copper output remains on track with unchanged 2026 guidance of 700,000-760,000t. The company had already lowered that target in February because of expected lower grades at Collahuasi.

The result confirms that copper remains Anglo’s strategic centre as the group continues reshaping its portfolio. Nickel is moving toward disposal, manganese is recovering from weather disruption, and copper is becoming the company’s clear lead business.

Los Bronces and Collahuasi Support Chilean Copper Performance

Los Bronces output rose by 12% to 48,500t after the restart of its second plant. The restart improved throughput and gave Anglo a stronger base in Chile during the quarter.

Collahuasi also delivered a stronger result. Anglo’s attributable share of production rose by 10% to 38,800t, supported by higher throughput and improved recoveries.

These gains helped offset weaker output from Quellaveco. The Peruvian mine faced expected lower grades, reducing copper production despite its importance as one of Anglo’s major growth assets.

The first-quarter result shows how copper production increasingly depends on ore grade, plant availability and recovery performance. Higher throughput can support output, but grade decline remains a major constraint across the industry.

Anglo’s growth is still weighted toward the second half of the year. Market attention will focus on Collahuasi’s return to higher-grade ore, the ramp-up of desalination capacity and the continued benefit from Los Bronces’ second plant restart.

The proposed merger with Teck Resources also remains important. Anglo said the deal is still on track for completion between September 2026 and March 2027. South Korean approval has been secured, leaving Chinese anti-monopoly clearance as the final major regulatory hurdle.

If completed, the merger would deepen Anglo’s copper exposure and reinforce the industry trend toward scale in high-quality copper assets.

Nickel Falls as Manganese Rebounds From Weather-Hit Base

Anglo’s nickel production fell by 7% year on year to 9,100t because of maintenance at Barro Alto and Codemin in Brazil. Barro Alto output declined by 7% to 7,500t, while Codemin fell by 6% to 1,600t.

The company expects nickel production to improve gradually from the second quarter. However, nickel is no longer central to Anglo’s long-term portfolio strategy.

Anglo is still working through the European Commission’s anti-monopoly review of the agreed sale of its nickel assets to MMG Singapore Resources. The deal is worth up to $500mn.

Manganese ore output rose sharply from a weak base. Anglo’s 40% attributable production jumped by 118% to just over 759,000t after operations recovered from the disruption caused by tropical cyclone Megan in early 2025.

Sales volumes rose even more strongly, increasing by 217% to 946,000t. However, weather still affected the business, with second-quarter output down 16% from the fourth quarter of 2025 because of adverse weather and cyclone Narelle.

The portfolio direction is now clearer. Anglo is prioritising copper and iron ore while continuing sale processes for steelmaking coal and De Beers. Nickel is becoming a disposal asset, and manganese remains a recovery story after weather-related disruption.

For copper markets, Anglo’s modest first-quarter increase is less important than its second-half execution. The company needs stronger grades, stable plant performance and project discipline to support its full-year copper target.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Anglo American’s first quarter shows that copper growth is increasingly a quality-of-ore and processing-efficiency story. The strategic focus now shifts to whether Collahuasi, Los Bronces and the Teck merger can turn Anglo into a more copper-led mining company.

Anglo American to Sell Brazilian Nickel Assets to MMG for Up to $500 Million

Anglo American

Strategic sale aligns Anglo’s focus on copper, iron ore, and crop nutrients amid nickel market shifts

Anglo American, the UK-South African mining major, has agreed to sell its Brazilian nickel business to MMG, a subsidiary of China’s Minmetals, for up to $500 million. The deal will streamline Anglo’s portfolio as it pivots toward copper, iron ore, and crop nutrients—sectors with stronger long-term demand.

The transaction includes an upfront $350 million cash payment, a $100 million price-linked earnout, and an additional $50 million contingent payment tied to development projects. MMG’s acquisition will be executed through its Singapore Resources arm, and the deal is expected to close by September 2025.

Brazilian ferronickel assets and greenfield projects included

The sale covers several key nickel operations in Brazil: the Barro Alto and Codemin ferronickel plants, as well as the Jacaré and Morro Sem Boné greenfield development projects. These assets provide MMG with direct access to high-grade nickel resources amid growing demand from battery and stainless steel industries.

In 2024, Anglo produced 39,400 tonnes of nickel (metal equivalent), down 1.5% year-on-year. It projects 2025 output between 37,000 and 39,000 tonnes. The sale will help Anglo prioritize high-margin projects in metals crucial to the global energy transition.

MMG expands presence as Brazil nickel exports to China fall

MMG, backed by state-owned China Minmetals Corporation, continues to secure upstream assets worldwide as China strengthens its control over energy transition metals. Despite the decline in Brazil's 2024 ferronickel exports to China—40,048 tonnes, down 36.3% from 2023—MMG’s acquisition signals confidence in long-term nickel demand.

Indonesia’s rise in nickel pig iron (NPI) output has pressured Brazilian exports, especially in the stainless steel sector. Meanwhile, Brazilian mining giant Vale is also reviewing its nickel portfolio, possibly considering divestment to sharpen competitiveness in its vertically integrated business model.

This transaction highlights shifting dynamics in global nickel supply as miners recalibrate for market volatility and the EV-driven demand surge.