EU probe MMG Anglo American nickel deal puts ferro-nickel supply at risk

MMG Anglo American

The EU probe MMG Anglo American nickel deal signals deep concern over European ferro-nickel security and stainless steel costs. Regulators fear the acquisition could divert low-carbon Brazilian ferro-nickel away from EU buyers and tighten an already fragile supply chain. As a result, the EU probe MMG Anglo American nickel deal sits at the intersection of antitrust, decarbonisation policy and China-related resource security.

EU probe MMG Anglo American nickel deal and ferro-nickel access

The EU probe MMG Anglo American nickel deal focuses on Anglo’s Barro Alto and Codemin ferro-nickel complexes in Brazil. These assets supply low-carbon ferro-nickel that European stainless mills increasingly value under upcoming CBAM rules. However, Brussels fears that MMG, controlled by China Minmetals, could redirect tonnages to Chinese or affiliated buyers.

The commission’s initial review found the business holds substantial market power in low-carbon ferro-nickel. European stainless producers have limited alternative options that meet both technical and carbon-intensity requirements. Therefore, any post-merger supply squeeze could raise input costs, compress margins and weaken EU mills against Asian competitors.

Market power, Chinese ownership and rejected remedies

Regulators rejected MMG’s first remedy package, which relied mainly on behavioural commitments and a supply agreement. Officials argued that these measures lacked structural guarantees and could be hard to monitor over time. Meanwhile, European industry groups warned that the deal would deepen Chinese influence over the nickel value chain.

European buyers also link the case to wider CBAM and decarbonisation pressures. They fear losing access to low-carbon ferro-nickel just as carbon costs rise and imports from Asia intensify. As a result, the EU probe MMG Anglo American nickel deal has become a test case for how Brussels balances open markets with strategic metals security. The commission now has until 20 March to clear, block or condition the acquisition, with possible timeline extensions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU probe MMG Anglo American nickel deal highlights how nickel and ferro-nickel have moved into the heart of Europe’s strategic calculus. Antitrust scrutiny now intertwines with carbon policy and China risk, raising the bar for deals involving critical alloy feedstocks. Stainless producers that rely on low-carbon Brazilian ferro-nickel should prepare contingency sourcing strategies, regardless of the eventual ruling.