Bushveld Mineral

South African Output Cuts to Boost China's Vanadium-Nitrogen Exports

Rising Exports Driven by Lower South African Production and Strong US Demand

China’s vanadium-nitrogen exports are expected to see significant growth in 2025, primarily due to output cuts from a major South African producer, increasing demand from the US, and strong export interest from Chinese producers. Market participants anticipate a boost in global vanadium-nitrogen trade, benefiting China’s export numbers.

Impact of South African Output Cuts on Global Vanadium-Nitrogen Supply

South African vanadium-nitrogen production has been notably impacted by ongoing equipment maintenance at Bushveld Minerals Vametco plant. From mid-December to March 2025, the plant will operate at reduced capacity due to a cash shortage. In 2024, Bushveld’s production fell by 19%, amounting to 1,387 tonnes. This reduction in South African output is expected to continue in 2025, with the producer operating at low run rates due to negative profit margins. Consequently, China is positioned to capitalize on these cuts by increasing its exports.

Global vanadium-nitrogen alloy production is heavily concentrated in China and South Africa, with other countries lacking the necessary technology due to intellectual property restrictions. While European and US steel mills often prefer using ferro-vanadium (80% grade) over vanadium-nitrogen, China’s export increase in vanadium-nitrogen reflects changing dynamics in the alloy market.

Surge in China’s Vanadium-Nitrogen Exports and US Market Demand

China’s vanadium-nitrogen exports more than doubled in 2024, reaching 2,523 tonnes, up from 945 tonnes in 2023. This growth can be attributed to South Africa’s lower output and China’s expanded export activities. Notably, in December 2024, China’s vanadium-nitrogen exports surged five-fold to 377 tonnes, compared to just 67 tonnes a year earlier.

The US was the largest buyer of Chinese vanadium-nitrogen in 2024, importing 892 tonnes, more than double the 335 tonnes purchased in 2023. Canada also saw a dramatic increase in imports, with 323 tonnes imported, a more than five-fold rise from 60 tonnes in 2023. India’s demand also increased by 69%, reaching 317 tonnes in 2024. The US demand for vanadium-nitrogen is expected to continue to rise, as the US government, under President Trump, has pledged to boost domestic construction activities, which will likely increase the demand for steel alloys.

Export Prices and Market Dynamics

Chinese export prices for vanadium-nitrogen are currently in the range of $20.30 to $21 per kilogram, lower than European prices of $23.80 to $24.20 per kilogram. Chinese smelters are more inclined to sell to overseas markets to address domestic oversupply issues. In 2024, China produced 41,500 tonnes of vanadium-nitrogen, surpassing domestic steel mills' consumption of 34,800 tonnes. However, some alloy smelters reduced production from 2023 levels due to negative profit margins and weaker steel demand.

China Vanadium Output Cuts Stabilize Market Amid Inventory Pressures

China Vanadium

China vanadium output cuts across major producers aim to relieve spot inventory pressures and prevent further price declines in the domestic market. Strategic China vanadium output reductions by leading manufacturers including Pangang, Sichuan Desheng, and Chengde Jianlong demonstrate coordinated efforts to balance supply with moderate demand from vanadium alloy producers.

Major Producers Implement Strategic Production Reductions

China vanadium output faces significant curtailments as state-controlled Pangang leads industry-wide supply adjustments. The company scheduled blast furnace shutdowns from May through November, removing 750 tonnes monthly of vanadium pentoxide equivalent from the market. Additionally, Pangang suspended its No.3 blast furnace from March to November, cutting another 700 tonnes monthly.

Meanwhile, private-sector producer Sichuan Desheng planned five-day routine equipment maintenance starting May 20th. This scheduled suspension will reduce output by approximately 200 tonnes of vanadium pentoxide (V2O5) equivalent, contributing to the broader supply tightening strategy across Chinese vanadium manufacturers.

Regional Players Join Production Curtailment Strategy

Furthermore, China's third-largest vanadium producer Chengde Jianlong Iron and Steel implemented 15 days of blast furnace maintenance beginning April 20th. This maintenance schedule reduced output by an estimated 350 tonnes of V2O5 equivalent, reinforcing the industry-wide approach to supply management during challenging market conditions.

Therefore, Sichuan Chuanwei, ranking as the fifth-largest domestic vanadium producer, adopted a sales restriction strategy for May. The company plans to sell only 300 tonnes of vanadium pentoxide to regular consumers this month. Sichuan Chuanwei will redirect remaining pentoxide production toward in-house vanadium electrolyte manufacturing, further tightening external market supply.

Market Stabilization Through Coordinated Supply Management

However, these production cuts reflect broader challenges facing China's vanadium industry amid fluctuating demand patterns. Moderate demand from vanadium alloy producers creates supply-demand imbalances that necessitate proactive inventory management strategies. Market participants expect these output reductions to offset demand weakness and maintain price stability.

As a result, the coordinated approach among Chinese vanadium producers demonstrates sophisticated market management techniques. The strategic timing of maintenance schedules and production curtailments across multiple facilities suggests industry collaboration to prevent destructive price competition and preserve market fundamentals.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China's vanadium industry demonstrates mature market management through coordinated output cuts that prioritize price stability over volume maximization. This strategic approach reflects the sector's evolution toward sustainable production practices that balance supply with realistic demand expectations, particularly important given vanadium's critical role in steel alloys and emerging energy storage applications.

China's Vanadium Producers Evaluate Implications of New Rebar Standard

Chinese vanadium market participants have articulated a range of perspectives concerning the potential implications of a newly-approved mandatory standard for steel reinforcement bar (rebar), a principal downstream product. On June 25, China's State Administration for Market Regulation and Standardization Administration sanctioned the mandatory standard GB 1499.2 for steel rebar, slated to become effective on September 25. This standard was initially promulgated in 2018 as a recommended guideline.

The revised regulation stipulates that producers of rebar with vanadium content below the mandated threshold must augment their vanadium usage to comply with the standard. A 2023 survey by China's Central Iron and Steel Research Institute (CISRI) indicates that the production of non-compliant steel rebar accounts for approximately 23% of the total output.

This standard also includes the higher grade HRB600 rebar, which is anticipated to necessitate 4-5 times the vanadium content compared to HRB400, notwithstanding China's predominant production of HRB400E.

A vanadium alloy producer based in Chengde has minimized the potential for substantial demand growth following the implementation of the new standard, citing the increased adoption of alternative materials by numerous steel mills, such as high phosphate ferro-niobium, vanadium-containing pig iron, and ferro-titanium.

An executive from a leading producer in Sichuan province foresees that enhancements in the steel industry will eventually elevate vanadium demand, albeit not significantly. The rationale is that incorporating more vanadium into steel enhances its strength, thereby reducing the overall quantity of steel required in construction and, consequently, the consumption of steel rebar. Industry estimates suggest that the average vanadium consumption per tonne is 0.3 kg for HRB400 and 0.6 kg for HRB500.

In contrast, a vanadium alloy smelter in Shaanxi is optimistic about the new standard driving short-term demand growth. The smelter anticipates that prices will escalate in July as some steel mills may increase their purchases in response to the new standard. This smelter had suspended production in mid-June due to narrowing profit margins.

A source from a Chengdu-based alloy producer predicts that the vanadium market will experience a downturn during July and August due to diminished demand from the steel industry. However, the demand for vanadium is expected to recover in September with the enforcement of the new standard.

Steel mills reduced their production in mid-June due to depressed prices resulting from sluggish purchasing activity and a pessimistic demand outlook for the summer, as high temperatures and increased rainfall have impeded outdoor activities.

Meanwhile, most other market participants are adopting a wait-and-see approach as they assess the ramifications of the new rebar standard.

Pangang Resumes Vanadium Guide Prices Amid Market Rebound

Pangang Vanadium

China's largest vanadium producer, Pangang, resumed issuing its weekly vanadium guide prices on September 23, after a temporary suspension in mid-June caused by continuous drops in spot prices. The company's latest guide price for 50% grade ferro-vanadium stands at 85,000 yuan per ton (Yn170/kg or $26.21/kg for contained vanadium). For the 77% vanadium and 16% nitrogen alloy, the price is set at Yn115,000 per ton.

Pangang's previous price revision took place on June 11, when the guide price for 50% grade alloy was Yn99,000 per ton, and for the 77% vanadium and 16% nitrogen alloy, it was Yn135,000 per ton. Since launching weekly guide prices on August 1, 2016, the company has consistently adjusted prices on Mondays or Thursdays, depending on market conditions.

Market Reactions to China's Stimulus Policies Boost Alloy Prices

On September 27, alloy market prices began to rise following China's announcement of new economic stimulus policies earlier in the week. Many alloy smelters increased their offers due to reduced spot supplies and renewed demand from steel mills ahead of the October 1-7 National Day holiday. Prices for 50% grade ferro-vanadium climbed to Yn80,000-81,000 per ton, up from Yn78,000-80,000 per ton the previous day.

Pentoxide flake prices also saw an increase, reaching Yn70,500-71,000 per ton, as small and medium-sized suppliers began selling at higher prices after major Chinese suppliers, including Sichuan Chuanwei, Sichuan Desheng, and Chengde Jianlong, sold out their September output.

Pangang's vanadium pentoxide equivalent production in 2023 reached 49,800 tons, marking a 6.2% increase from the previous year's output of 46,900 tons. The company’s production guidance for vanadium pentoxide equivalent this year is set at 44,100 tons. Additionally, Pangang boasts significant output capacity in titanium concentrate, titanium slag, and titanium dioxide production, further cementing its role as a key player in the global market.

Vanadium Resources offtake deal with China Precious Asia

Vanadium

Vanadium Resources offtake deal with China Precious Asia secures a near-term path to cash flow. The two-year pact covers about 1.2mn t/yr of vanadium-rich magnetite DSO from South Africa. As a result, the Steelpoortdrift project gains commercial optionality while financing remains tight.

Terms, conditions, and near-term pivot

The agreement hinges on final pricing terms by 30 August, given no standard spot benchmark. It also requires a mining contractor and product-spec compliance by 30 November. Meanwhile, VR8 keeps talks open with other offtakers, which could unlock higher-grade ore output. Vanadium Resources offtake deal with China Precious Asia complements this parallel marketing strategy.

Market context and financing implications

Steelpoortdrift holds 680mn t at an average 0.7pc V₂O₅, supporting scale. However, the project pause and cost cuts reflect VR8’s limited cash of A$218,000 at March-end. Therefore, DSO sales aim to monetize ore while VR8 seeks a strategic equity partner. Vanadium Resources offtake deal with China Precious Asia may reduce funding risk if milestones are met.

China’s vanadium demand is accelerating on vanadium redox flow battery projects. Pangang cites 2024 consumption of 116,300t V₂O₅ equivalent, underscoring structural pull. Consequently, CPAL’s involvement aligns supply with growing energy-storage applications and traditional steel demand.

VR8 originally targeted first concentrate and flake by late 2025. Yet DSO offers a lower-capex bridge to revenues during market and funding uncertainty. If pricing and logistics crystallize, the DSO route can stabilize cash generation ahead of full development.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This offtake is a pragmatic bridge between stranded resources and market demand. Execution now turns on price discovery, contractor mobilization, and logistics discipline. If VR8 delivers milestones, CPAL’s pull could anchor a broader funding solution.

China to Boost Vanadium Exports to India Following Policy Adjustments

China Vanadium

Chinese vanadium pentoxide flake exports to India are set to rise, spurred by India’s removal of a 5% customs duty on the material in late July, market participants report. This comes as India introduces new Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) certification requirements, aimed at strengthening its domestic ferro-vanadium industry. The move aligns with India’s ongoing efforts to bolster its steel production, which reached 140.2mn tonnes in the 2023-24 fiscal year, a 12% increase from the previous year. The country is targeting a 300mn t/yr steel output by 2030-31, driven by a push for infrastructure development.

India has historically sourced vanadium pentoxide flake from countries such as Thailand, South Korea, and Russia. However, recent months have seen a marked increase in Chinese vanadium exports to India. From January to July this year, China exported 120 tonnes of vanadium pentoxide flake to India, compared to none the previous year.

India’s new BIS certification process, which must be renewed annually, requires both domestic and international ferro-vanadium producers to obtain a license before selling in India. Without this, suppliers will be unable to sell ferro-vanadium in the Indian market starting mid-March 2025.

A Sichuan-based supplier indicated readiness to sell to India, citing an oversupply in the domestic market and increasing inquiries from Indian buyers. China's total vanadium pentoxide flake production reached 85,315 tonnes from January to August, a 9.8% year-on-year increase, reflecting the country's capacity to meet rising global demand.

China's Longteng Special Reduces December Ferro-Vanadium Tender Price

Ferro-Vanadium

Jiangsu Changshu Longteng Special Steel, a major private-sector steelmaker in China, has lowered its ferro-vanadium tender price for December 2024 deliveries, citing challenging profit margins in the steel sector.

Ferro-Vanadium Tender Price Drops

On December 6, Longteng Special Steel finalized a purchase of 32 tonnes of 50% grade ferro-vanadium at 81,700 yuan/tonne (Yn163/kg or $22.45/kg), delivered and inclusive of VAT. This represents a significant drop of 4,850 yuan/tonne from the price set in its previous tender on November 8, which was 86,550 yuan/tonne ex-works. Shipments are scheduled for December 31.

Similarly, Zenith Steel, another prominent privately operated steelmaker, purchased 66 tonnes of ferro-vanadium on December 4 at 81,500 yuan/tonne, delivered with VAT, reflecting a 4,100 yuan/tonne reduction compared to its mid-November tender.

Market Stabilizes Amid Reluctant Producers

Despite these price reductions, the overall ferro-vanadium market remained stable as many alloy producers were hesitant to lower their offers further. Current prices are nearing production costs, limiting flexibility in pricing strategies. Market participants largely stayed on the sidelines due to sluggish demand from steel mills and trading houses.

As of December 6, prices for 50% grade ferro-vanadium were assessed at 81,000-83,000 yuan/tonne ex-works, unchanged from December 3. Meanwhile, pentoxide flake feedstock prices held steady at 71,000-76,000 yuan/tonne ex-works, reflecting muted procurement interest from alloy smelters and sporadic steel mill tenders.

Upcoming Pricing Announcements

Major feedstock suppliers, including Sichuan Chuanwei, Sichuan Desheng, and Chengde Jianlong, are set to announce their selling prices for December deliveries next week. These updates are expected to provide further insight into market dynamics as steel mills and alloy producers navigate persistent cost pressures and limited demand.

China’s Ferro-Molybdenum and Ferro-Vanadium Prices Remain Steady Amid Firm Demand

Ferro-Molybdenum

The Chinese noble alloys market has maintained stability in early 2025, with ferro-molybdenum (FeMo) and ferro-vanadium (FeV) prices holding firm due to consistent demand from steelmakers and steady raw material costs. Despite market uncertainties, domestic and export prices have largely remained unchanged since the end of December.

Ferro-Molybdenum Market Trends

Domestic prices for 60% grade ferro-molybdenum were assessed at 230,000-233,000 yuan per tonne (Yn/t) ($31,510-$31,921/t) ex-works, translating to Yn383-388 per kilogram (kg) of contained molybdenum. Export prices remained steady at $53-53.50/kg free on board (FOB) China.

• Steelmaker demand remains firm, with tenders closing at approximately Yn230,000/t on a delivery basis. However, January's total tender volume is expected to fall short of 10,000t, compared to 14,000t purchased in December.

• 45% grade concentrate prices were Yn3,590-3,620 per metric tonne unit (mtu) ex-works, while 57% grade roasted concentrate was assessed at Yn3,690-3,720/mtu ex-works, both unchanged from December 31 levels.

• A Jiangxi-based mining company finalized 45% grade concentrate sales at Yn3,595/mtu over the past two days.

With steady steel production supporting ferro-molybdenum demand, prices are expected to remain stable in the short term.

Ferro-Vanadium Market Holds Firm Despite Global Price Softness

The ferro-vanadium (50% grade) market remained stable at Yn81,000-83,000/t ex-works, supported by ongoing procurement from steelmakers and stable pentoxide flake costs.

• January procurement tenders were issued ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, with major private-sector steelmaker Nanjing Iron and Steel yet to set its tender price.

• Alloy producers maintained offers between Yn82,000-83,000/t, as pentoxide flake costs remained firm. A Tianjin-based trader purchased 10t of FeV at Yn81,000/t ex-works on December 31.

• Pentoxide flake prices remained at Yn73,000-74,000/t ex-works, with major suppliers Sichuan Chuanwei, Sichuan Desheng, and Chengde Jianlong yet to announce January prices.

Despite stable domestic demand, export prices for 80% grade ferro-vanadium softened to $24.30-25/kg FOB China, down from $24.80-25.30/kg on December 31. This decline reflects weaker international demand and lower bids from overseas buyers.

Conclusion

With firm steel sector demand and stable feedstock costs, China’s ferro-molybdenum and ferro-vanadium markets are expected to remain steady in early 2025. While domestic demand holds firm, international ferro-vanadium prices face downward pressure, reflecting weaker global buying interest. The market's direction in the coming months will depend on steelmakers' procurement strategies and raw material cost fluctuations.

Pangang Boosts Vanadium and Titanium Dioxide Output in 2024 Amid Price Decline

Pangang Group

Pangang Increases Output of Vanadium and Titanium Dioxide

Pangang Group, China’s third-largest titanium dioxide producer, raised output in 2024 despite lower spot market prices. The company produced 252,900t of titanium dioxide, up 0.8% year-on-year, including 26,900t via chlorination. Vanadium pentoxide output rose by 7.3% to 53,400t, while sulphate titanium slag production fell 6% to 181,800t.

Revenue Falls Despite Strong Output Gains

Pangang’s 2024 revenue fell by 8.2% year-on-year to 13.2 billion yuan ($1.82 billion), hit by weaker vanadium and titanium prices. The company’s current capacities include 1.8 million t/yr for titanium concentrate, 220,000 t/yr for slag, and 300,000 t/yr for titanium dioxide. Chlorination-based production contributes 75,000 t/yr, showing Pangang’s focus on high-purity product diversification.

2025 Targets Set Higher for Titanium Dioxide

Pangang plans to produce 52,500t of vanadium pentoxide and 290,000t of titanium dioxide in 2025. Of the total, 64,500t will be chlorination-grade material, while titanium slag output is forecasted to hit 192,000t. Meanwhile, export prices for 93% rutile-grade material rose to $2,100–2,150/t fob China, tracking domestic price strength.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Pangang’s output growth amid a low-price environment reveals a strategic push to preserve market position. While profitability took a hit, the company’s expanded production and chlorination investment could position it well for a rebound in global demand. Titanium and vanadium markets should monitor Pangang’s moves closely in 2025.

China's Magnesium Sector Faces Oversupply and Price Challenges Despite Rising Output

China's Magnesium

China’s magnesium industry, which accounts for a staggering 83% of the world’s magnesium production, is grappling with challenges of oversupply and volatile prices, according to insights shared at the 27th annual conference of the China Magnesium Association (CMA) held in Xi'an.

Decade-Long Capacity and Utilization Issues

Over the past decade, China’s magnesium production capacity has ranged between 1.3 million and 1.5 million tonnes per year (t/yr). However, actual output has lagged behind at 800,000 to 1 million t/yr, resulting in an average utilization rate of just 63%, according to data from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMA).

Dependence on Traditional Sectors

The sector’s primary consumption is still tied to traditional industries like aluminium alloys, steel, and titanium sponge. Attempts to diversify into new applications, such as magnesium alloy construction sheets, consumer electronics, and new energy vehicles, have been slow. This limited innovation has contributed to an oversupply and pushed magnesium prices to near production costs.

Shifting Trends in Titanium Sponge Production

The use of magnesium in titanium sponge production has declined due to its environmental impact and price volatility. According to Jiang Baowei, lead engineer at Pangang Vanadium and Titanium Resources, many producers now use in-house magnesium obtained through electrolysis of titanium tetrachloride residue, reducing environmental pollution and stabilizing costs. In 2023, China’s titanium sponge production capacity reached 220,000 t/yr, supported by 250,000 t/yr of in-house electrolytic magnesium production.

Rising Production Amid Challenges

Despite these hurdles, China’s magnesium production rose to 702,900 tonnes during January-September 2024, an 18% year-on-year increase, fueled by resumed production in Shaanxi, the country’s largest magnesium-producing region. Output in Shaanxi grew by 14%, while neighboring Shanxi saw a 10% rise. Shaanxi alone houses 50 producers with a combined capacity of 678,000 t/yr, including 34 producers in Fugu County.

CMA’s Call to Action

Ge Honglin, CNMA president, urged the industry to emphasize magnesium’s benefits as a light structural metal and explore emerging markets like hydrogen storage and new energy vehicles. He also called for price stabilization to ensure affordability and reduce market volatility.

Sustainable Production Gains

The industry has made strides in energy efficiency, reducing the energy required to produce 1 tonne of magnesium from 5.2 tonnes of standard coal in 2012 to just 4 tonnes in 2023. Over the same period, magnesium consumption in structural materials more than doubled to 192,100 tonnes, contributing to a sharp rise in overall consumption, up by 76% since 2012.

China’s magnesium sector continues to grow in global prominence, but it faces an urgent need to diversify its applications, reduce environmental impacts, and stabilize pricing to maintain its leadership in the global market.

China's Fengbao Special Steel Reduces Ferro-Vanadium Tender Price Amid Weakening Demand

In response to declining steel demand and narrowing profit margins, Chinese private-sector steelmaker Henan Fengbao Special Steel has lowered its ferro-vanadium tender price for August deliveries. On August 8, the company purchased 15 tons of 50% grade ferro-vanadium at a rate of 87,000 yuan per ton (equivalent to $24.27 per kilogram of vanadium content), marking a reduction of 1,000 yuan per ton from the price set in mid-July.

The downturn in ferro-vanadium prices has persisted since late July, driven by decreasing demand from steel mills. Many mills have begun maintenance and reduced output in anticipation of new national standards for steel reinforcement bars (rebar), leading to a decrease in spot inventories.

This price cut aligns with a broader trend observed among alloy producers, who have also lowered their offers in the wake of reduced purchases from both steelmakers and trading firms, compounded by falling costs of pentoxide flake feedstock.

Notably, state-owned Fushun Special Steel secured 100 tons of 50% grade alloy on August 8 at 86,650 yuan per ton, reflecting a significant drop of 11,350 yuan per ton compared to a previous tender in late May. Fushun typically opts for 80% grade alloy in its steel production.

Similarly, private-sector Nanjing Iron and Steel (Nisco) purchased 90 tons of the alloy on August 9 at 87,200 yuan per ton, down sharply by 28,300 yuan per ton from a late July tender. State-owned Jiangxi Xinyu Iron and Steel also lowered its purchase price on the same day, acquiring 32 tons at 87,000 yuan per ton, a reduction of 5,200 yuan per ton from its early July tender.

Major suppliers, including Sichuan Chuanwei, Sichuan Desheng, and Chengde Jianlong, have yet to finalize their selling prices for August deliveries to regular consumers.

China's Coker Shutdown Squeezes High-Sulphur Anode Coke Supply

Motiva

In a significant development within the petroleum coke industry, Zhejiang Petrochemical, a major independent refiner in China, recently halted operations at its delayed coker unit (DCU) on September 19. The shutdown of this facility, which produces high-sulfur, anode-grade petroleum coke, has caused a tightening in the supply of this crucial material. Prior to the shutdown, the unit was churning out approximately 70,000 tons per month of coke with a 6.5% sulfur content and 350ppm vanadium, critical for the anode-grade calcining market.

This unexpected supply disruption is expected to drive demand for alternative sources of high-sulfur anode-grade cokes, with refiners from other regions stepping in to fill the gap. U.S. Gulf refiner Motiva, with its Port Arthur refinery in Texas, may see increased interest in its high-sulfur DCU 1 coke, as well as Saudi Arabia's sponge-grade coke, both of which have similar specifications and production capacities.

Impact on Global Supply and Prices

In addition, Japanese refiner Cosmo Oil's Sakai refinery, which produces approximately 500,000 tons of coke per year with around 7% sulfur and less than 300ppm vanadium, is also expected to be in higher demand. Historically, the Sakai refinery has directed the majority of its production toward its domestic power plant, Yokkaichi Kasumi, but recent plant maintenance has opened the door for increased exports. In fact, Cosmo Oil has been offering this high-sulfur coke to Chinese buyers at a competitive rate of 1,350 yuan per ton ($192 per ton), a significant premium compared to domestic fuel-grade coke prices.

China's coker shutdown has prompted a rise in imports of Japanese coke, with trade data showing imports of 11,000 tons in July and 21,800 tons in August. These figures mark the first time China has imported coke from Japan since November 2023, further highlighting the tightening supply situation in the region.

This development will likely continue to influence global anode-grade petroleum coke prices, driving up demand for both U.S. and Japanese refiners, as China looks to compensate for its lost domestic production.

Beneath the Growth: Ferro-Titanium(Fe-Ti) Market Enters Cooling Phase in 2025

Ferro-Titanium

Once a core beneficiary of aerospace and specialty steel demand, ferro-titanium now faces dual pressure from weakening demand and excess supply.

At the Foundation of Steel, Cracks Begin to Show

As of September 2025, leading market analysts still forecast a 4–5% annual growth rate for the ferro-titanium market, citing robust demand in aerospace, high-performance steels, and defense-grade alloys. But on the ground, reality paints a more sobering picture.

The global steel industry is struggling. A perfect storm of China’s low-cost exports, persistent weakness in downstream sectors, and U.S. tariff uncertainties has significantly dented confidence. Particularly hard hit are the automotive, shipbuilding, and plant engineering sectors, leading to a sharp decline in ferro-titanium consumption.

The result: a continued slide in spot prices, leaving suppliers grappling with margin pressure and inventory overhang.

Dual Shock: Demand Contraction Meets Supply Glut

Ferro-titanium is a specialty ferroalloy additive used in steelmaking to remove oxygen and nitrogen impurities, refine grain structure, and enhance both strength and corrosion resistance. It is indispensable in the production of titanium alloys for aerospace, stainless steels, and corrosion-resistant superalloys.

However, softening demand is now converging with a surge in cheap ilmenite and rutile feedstock imports, the ramp-up of new smelting capacity, and rising inventories, triggering a classic oversupply scenario. Some traders have resorted to panic selling, driving spot prices below long-term contract levels.

Not All Ferroalloys Are Created Equal

This downturn is not symptomatic of the entire ferroalloy market. While ferro-molybdenum (FeMo) prices are also under pressure due to steel sector weakness, the ferro-vanadium (FeV) market remains relatively buoyant—buoyed by growing demand for high-strength steel and new applications in energy storage technologies (e.g., vanadium redox flow batteries).

This divergence underscores a key truth:

Ferroalloy markets live or die by the uniqueness of their end-use demand.

Products that rely solely on steel cycles are inherently more volatile. In contrast, those with diverse, high-value downstream applications offer resilience—and in some cases, opportunity.

Long-Term Vision Intact, But Short-Term Survival Comes First

Industry experts agree:

"A meaningful rebound in ferro-titanium prices is unlikely until inventories normalize and downstream sectors recover."

Yet the long-term fundamentals remain intact. Demand from aerospace, defense-related high-performance steels, urban air mobility (UAM), and electric vehicles continues to build. Today’s correction may in fact be a strategic inflection point.

For producers with technological capabilities and diversified market access, this downturn could be a launchpad for future leadership. Moreover, as environmental regulations tighten, ferro-titanium producers with recycling-based production systems may gain a structural edge. In the long run, quality will matter more than quantity.

After all, ferro-titanium is essential for manufacturing materials that must not fail—only the strongest will do.

The Metalnomist Commentary

“This is not chaos. It is purification. Only the technologically armed will dominate the next cycle.”

The ferro-titanium market is undergoing a painful but necessary correction. But there is method in the madness. Suppliers rooted in high-value end markets, with a reputation for premium quality and the ability to serve global niches, will emerge as the next leaders.

This is a time for endurance. And in metals, quality is always the final destination.

China chlorination titanium dioxide expansion lifts Tianyuan to 200,000 t/yr

Titanium Dioxide

China chlorination titanium dioxide expansion will accelerate after Yibin Tianyuan Haifeng Hetai announced a new 100,000 t/yr chloride-process plant in Jiang’an county, Yibin, Sichuan. China chlorination titanium dioxide expansion will double the subsidiary’s total titanium dioxide capacity to 200,000 t/yr from 100,000 t/yr. As a result, China chlorination titanium dioxide expansion strengthens the country’s push toward cleaner TiO₂ production.

Yibin Tianyuan will invest 1.48bn yuan in the project and expects a two-year construction period. The company also projects a payback period of about 6.3 years, excluding construction time. Meanwhile, Yibin Tianyuan’s operating base spans chloride-process titanium dioxide and lithium iron phosphate, linking pigment supply chains with the battery materials ecosystem.

Why chloride-process TiO₂ keeps gaining ground in China

Chloride-process TiO₂ increasingly leads new capacity decisions because it supports tighter environmental performance. Producers also use the technology to align with low-carbon and cleaner industrial targets. However, the transition is not linear because feedstock quality, capex intensity, and operating know-how still constrain fast adoption.

China’s biggest TiO₂ groups continue to expand chloride capacity to upgrade their portfolios. LB Group, Citic Titanium, Pangang Vanadium and Titanium, Lubei Chemical, and Yibin Tianyuan form the core group using this advanced route. Therefore, Tianyuan’s decision fits a broader capital cycle that prioritizes technology shifts over incremental sulphate-style expansions.

What Tianyuan’s new plant means for market structure and pricing

A 100,000 t/yr addition is large enough to influence regional competition, especially if ramp-up is smooth. The move can improve product consistency and help Tianyuan target higher-value customer segments. Meanwhile, the market will watch whether the new capacity arrives into stable pigment demand or a weaker cycle.

China produced 663,000 tonnes of chloride-process TiO₂ in 2024, down 4.2% year on year, and this represented 14% of national TiO₂ output. That share shows chloride still has room to grow, even as producers expand. Therefore, the next competitive edge will come from integration, energy efficiency, and steady feedstock sourcing.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This project signals that Chinese TiO₂ producers still believe technology upgrades will protect margins. However, new chloride capacity can pressure prices if demand stays soft during ramp-up. The winners will be operators who pair scale with disciplined commissioning and differentiated grades.

Titanium Exempted from US Tariffs: Aerospace Industry Impact Remains Unclear

Titanium

New US Tariff Exemptions for Titanium Could Affect the Aerospace Supply Chain

On April 2, 2025, US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on several foreign imports, including an exemption for titanium, titanium scrap, and ferro-titanium. While the exemption helps protect titanium trade, the broader implications for the aerospace industry remain uncertain.

Titanium Exemption and Its Effects

The US tariffs announced include a list of exemptions, with titanium in its various forms being spared. However, other metals like hafnium, molybdenum, vanadium, nickel scrap, and aluminum scrap were not exempted. The new tariff scheme does not affect pre-existing duties on Chinese titanium products, including a 20% duty on titanium products from China, which has been in place since March 4, 2025. Despite the exemption for certain forms of titanium, Chinese titanium sponge imports will still be subject to a 60% duty, which remains unchanged.

Additionally, imports of unwrought titanium from Japan, Kazakhstan, and Saudi Arabia will still face a 15% tariff, though efforts to remove this tariff for sponge imports are underway. For US titanium scrap imports, particularly from the EU and UK, which make up over half of the US intake, the tariff exemption is crucial. Without it, US scrap dealers, processors, and consumers would face substantial challenges, as the US does not produce enough vacuum-grade titanium scrap domestically to meet demand.

Aerospace Industry and Supply Chain Impact

While the titanium exemption provides relief for many manufacturers, the broader impact of the tariffs on the aerospace industry is still unclear. Aerospace manufacturers are uncertain about the tariff's effects on finished parts, components, and engines, particularly regarding supply chains that involve cross-border production of engine parts like the Leap-1A and Leap-1B engines for the A320neo and Boeing 737 Max.

Canada and Mexico were excluded from the new US tariffs, alleviating concerns for companies like Bombardier, Airbus, RTX, and Heroux-Devtek, which operate in those regions. Still, some titanium producers believe the situation could change rapidly, as it is difficult to define the boundaries between parts made from titanium and assembled components that use other materials, such as nickel-based alloys or aluminum.

China’s 34% Tariff on US Exports

In response to US tariffs, China has imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports, which will affect titanium imports from the US. Despite importing limited amounts of titanium from the US, China still relies on US imports for critical aerospace components, including parts for its C919 aircraft. The C919 uses the CFM Leap-1C engine, which is assembled in both the US and France.