Anglo Teck Group merger creates new critical minerals champion

Anglo Teck

The Anglo Teck Group merger marks a major consolidation in global copper, zinc and iron ore supply. Anglo American will combine its portfolio with Teck Resources, creating a diversified critical minerals producer headquartered in Canada. As a result, the Anglo Teck Group merger positions the new entity among the world’s top copper producers.

Deal terms and production scale

The transaction structure underscores Anglo’s strategic ambition in base metals growth. Anglo American will exchange each Teck share for 1.3301 Anglo shares and pay a pre-merger dividend. Meanwhile, the Anglo Teck Group merger will unite sizeable copper, zinc and iron ore pipelines under one balance sheet. Teck targets up to 525,000 tonnes of copper and 575,000 tonnes of zinc production in 2025. In parallel, Anglo American plans as much as 750,000 tonnes of copper and 61mn tonnes of iron ore.

Portfolio reshaping and decarbonisation tailwinds

The merger also accelerates Anglo’s portfolio shift toward future-facing commodities. Therefore, Anglo Teck will support the divestment of diamonds, coking coal and nickel assets over time. This strategy aligns with investor pressure for clearer exposure to energy transition metals and simpler asset mixes. However, the Anglo Teck Group merger still faces regulatory scrutiny and integration risks across multiple mining jurisdictions. Recent deal volatility, including Peabody’s cancelled coking coal purchase, shows how execution risk can derail portfolio plans.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Anglo Teck Group merger signals a new phase in mining consolidation focused on copper and iron ore scale. For buyers and governments, a stronger Canada-based critical minerals champion could influence future supply security and contract terms. Market participants should track divestments and project approvals, which will determine how quickly the merged group rebalances its portfolio.

Teck copper and zinc guidance cut as grades and constraints bite

Teck

Teck copper and zinc guidance has been cut across multiple years to 2028. The company now expects lower output from several key assets as it mines lower-grade areas and grapples with operational constraints. Teck copper and zinc guidance for 2025 has been reduced again, with copper now forecast at 415,000-465,000t, down from 470,000-525,000t. This shift signals a slower growth path just as the market focuses on looming deficits in several base metals.

However, the sharpest impact on Teck copper and zinc guidance comes from Chile. At Quebrada Blanca, copper production guidance for 2025 has been cut to 170,000-190,000t from 210,000-230,000t. The mine faces slow sand drainage and concentrator downtime, which delay tailings management facility (TMF) development. As a result, Teck expects more downtime in 2025-26 and will build a sand wedge to stabilise tailings performance. The company targets 2027 for a steady-state operation in which TMF constraints no longer cap concentrator throughput.

At the group level, Teck’s third-quarter copper production fell by 9pc year on year to 104,100t. Meanwhile, copper sales slipped only 0.6pc to 110,300t, indicating some stock drawdown despite weaker mine output. This divergence underscores how tighter mined supply can already appear in concentrate flows, even before full-year guidance cuts translate into physical scarcity. Markets that watch Teck copper and zinc guidance closely will likely reassess medium-term concentrate availability and treatment charge dynamics.

Zinc and molybdenum outlook softens ahead of Anglo Teck merger

Beyond copper, Teck has lowered zinc production guidance for most years through 2028, with 2025 the main exception. Total zinc in concentrate output fell by 5pc in the third quarter to 150,500t, even as sales rose 14pc to 305,700t. Refined zinc fared worse, with production down 20pc and sales down 25pc year on year. These trends highlight margin pressure at the smelting and refining level, where power costs, maintenance and weaker prices all weigh on performance.

In addition, Teck has cut its molybdenum guidance, signalling a broader recalibration of its by-product profile. The company now expects 2026 molybdenum output to be 46pc lower than previously guided, with a 7pc reduction in 2028. This will affect revenue diversification and may trim by-product credits that help support copper unit costs. For downstream consumers, tighter molybdenum supply could gradually feed into alloy surcharges and specialty steel pricing, particularly in high-temperature and corrosion-resistant segments.

Meanwhile, Teck is preparing for a strategic reset through its planned merger with Anglo American. The deal will create Anglo Teck Group, combining large iron ore, copper and zinc portfolios under one umbrella. The merged entity may be better positioned to manage grade decline and project risk across a broader asset base. But investors will scrutinise whether Teck copper and zinc guidance stabilises after integration, or whether further revisions emerge as projects like Quebrada Blanca move through their de-bottlenecking phases.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Teck’s guidance cuts confirm what many copper and zinc buyers already suspect: resource quality and infrastructure bottlenecks are eroding the easy supply growth story. While the Anglo Teck merger offers scale and optionality, it does not remove geological and technical constraints at assets like Quebrada Blanca. For traders and smelters, this is a reminder to stress-test scenarios where large, “tier-one” names no longer deliver the volumes once assumed in long-term models.

Anglo American Teck merger creates a top-five global copper producer

Anglo American Teck

The Anglo American Teck merger won shareholder approval and moves toward a 2026 closing. The Anglo American Teck merger will form Anglo Teck, a top-five copper producer by scale. The Anglo American Teck merger also lifts copper exposure above 70% of revenue.

The all-share transaction values the deal at about $53bn and targets completion in 2026. The merged group will base its headquarters in Canada and keep a primary listing in London. Anglo shareholders will hold a 62.4% stake in the enlarged company.

Copper scale becomes the core investment logic

The merger concentrates premium copper assets as electrification demand rises. Analysts expect strategic value from combining Anglo’s Collahuasi stake with Teck’s growing Quebrada Blanca operations. Those assets could exceed 1mn tonnes per year in the early 2030s.

That output would rival the world’s largest copper mine, Escondida, operated by BHP. Meanwhile, record copper prices strengthen the case for larger, lower-risk portfolios. Therefore, investors expect improved funding capacity for expansions and debottlenecking.

Regulators will decide the timeline and the precedent

Regulatory reviews remain the main gating item for closing. The deal still needs approval under the Investment Canada Act and competition clearances across jurisdictions. Ottawa has cleared national security concerns, but the net-benefit test could extend the process.

The companies will operate independently until approvals arrive. However, the shareholder votes signal strong confidence in copper-led strategy. As a result, the deal may trigger broader global copper consolidation among mining majors.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Anglo American Teck merger reflects a market that now rewards copper-heavy cash flow and long-life assets. Therefore, regulators will weigh competition risks against strategic supply security. Meanwhile, rivals will likely pursue their own copper consolidation to protect growth pipelines.

Anglo American Copper Output Rises as Chile Offsets Quellaveco Grade Decline

Anglo American, Copper

Anglo American copper output rose slightly in the first quarter as stronger Chilean mine performance offset lower grades at Quellaveco in Peru. The global mining group produced 170,400t of copper during the quarter, up 1% from a year earlier.

Anglo American copper output was supported by higher throughput at Los Bronces and Collahuasi, along with improved recoveries at Collahuasi. Chilean copper production increased by 9% to 97,000t, while Peruvian output fell by 8% to 73,400t.

Anglo American copper output remains on track with unchanged 2026 guidance of 700,000-760,000t. The company had already lowered that target in February because of expected lower grades at Collahuasi.

The result confirms that copper remains Anglo’s strategic centre as the group continues reshaping its portfolio. Nickel is moving toward disposal, manganese is recovering from weather disruption, and copper is becoming the company’s clear lead business.

Los Bronces and Collahuasi Support Chilean Copper Performance

Los Bronces output rose by 12% to 48,500t after the restart of its second plant. The restart improved throughput and gave Anglo a stronger base in Chile during the quarter.

Collahuasi also delivered a stronger result. Anglo’s attributable share of production rose by 10% to 38,800t, supported by higher throughput and improved recoveries.

These gains helped offset weaker output from Quellaveco. The Peruvian mine faced expected lower grades, reducing copper production despite its importance as one of Anglo’s major growth assets.

The first-quarter result shows how copper production increasingly depends on ore grade, plant availability and recovery performance. Higher throughput can support output, but grade decline remains a major constraint across the industry.

Anglo’s growth is still weighted toward the second half of the year. Market attention will focus on Collahuasi’s return to higher-grade ore, the ramp-up of desalination capacity and the continued benefit from Los Bronces’ second plant restart.

The proposed merger with Teck Resources also remains important. Anglo said the deal is still on track for completion between September 2026 and March 2027. South Korean approval has been secured, leaving Chinese anti-monopoly clearance as the final major regulatory hurdle.

If completed, the merger would deepen Anglo’s copper exposure and reinforce the industry trend toward scale in high-quality copper assets.

Nickel Falls as Manganese Rebounds From Weather-Hit Base

Anglo’s nickel production fell by 7% year on year to 9,100t because of maintenance at Barro Alto and Codemin in Brazil. Barro Alto output declined by 7% to 7,500t, while Codemin fell by 6% to 1,600t.

The company expects nickel production to improve gradually from the second quarter. However, nickel is no longer central to Anglo’s long-term portfolio strategy.

Anglo is still working through the European Commission’s anti-monopoly review of the agreed sale of its nickel assets to MMG Singapore Resources. The deal is worth up to $500mn.

Manganese ore output rose sharply from a weak base. Anglo’s 40% attributable production jumped by 118% to just over 759,000t after operations recovered from the disruption caused by tropical cyclone Megan in early 2025.

Sales volumes rose even more strongly, increasing by 217% to 946,000t. However, weather still affected the business, with second-quarter output down 16% from the fourth quarter of 2025 because of adverse weather and cyclone Narelle.

The portfolio direction is now clearer. Anglo is prioritising copper and iron ore while continuing sale processes for steelmaking coal and De Beers. Nickel is becoming a disposal asset, and manganese remains a recovery story after weather-related disruption.

For copper markets, Anglo’s modest first-quarter increase is less important than its second-half execution. The company needs stronger grades, stable plant performance and project discipline to support its full-year copper target.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Anglo American’s first quarter shows that copper growth is increasingly a quality-of-ore and processing-efficiency story. The strategic focus now shifts to whether Collahuasi, Los Bronces and the Teck merger can turn Anglo into a more copper-led mining company.

Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal reshapes a top-tier mine complex

Anglo American Codelco

The Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal will turn Los Bronces–Andina into a true global copper powerhouse. The Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal integrates mine planning between the adjacent operations and targets 120,000 t/yr of extra copper. As a result, the Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal could unlock at least $5bn in cost savings over 21 years.

Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal targets more metal at lower unit costs

The agreement aligns long-term mine plans at Los Bronces and Andina to optimise ore scheduling and processing. A joint plan is expected to deliver an additional 2.7mn t of copper from 2030 over 21 years. Therefore, the complex should cut unit costs by up to 15pc versus standalone strategies, with little extra capital.

Combined Los Bronces–Andina output already ranks among the world’s top 10 copper mines. The planned production uplift would push the integrated complex into the global top five. A new jointly owned operating company will manage planning and processing optimisation across both mines. However, each partner will still retain ownership of its own concessions and physical assets.

Under the Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal, output, costs and liabilities will be shared equally. Anglo American Sur, which operates Los Bronces, remains 50.1pc owned by Anglo American, 20.4pc by Mitsubishi and 29.5pc by Becrux, Codelco and Mitsui’s joint venture. Both sides also keep the option to advance separate underground projects in parallel, preserving flexibility for future expansions.

Strategic timing as Chilean copper supply and Anglo’s portfolio evolve

The timing of the Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal coincides with tight copper supply and rising prices. Markets are closely watching long-term additions in Chile, given strong demand from energy transition and data centre infrastructure. Therefore, a low-capex, brownfield uplift at an existing complex looks especially attractive to investors and customers.

Implementation still depends on regulatory and environmental approvals, which both firms expect to secure by 2030. Chilean authorities will scrutinise water, emissions and community impacts, especially in the high Andes. However, the partnership structure signals a willingness to share not only upside, but also ESG responsibilities. This is increasingly important as financiers and OEMs demand clearer sustainability performance from large copper suppliers.

The deal also follows Anglo American’s recently announced merger with Teck to create Anglo Teck Group. That transaction would consolidate a major iron ore, copper and zinc business with a much deeper project pipeline. In that context, the Anglo American Codelco Chile copper deal strengthens the future group’s position in premium Chilean copper. It also deepens Anglo’s relationship with Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer and a key state partner.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This agreement shows how value in copper is shifting from greenfield megaprojects to smarter integration of existing belts. By coordinating mine plans and plant utilisation, Anglo and Codelco aim to extract more metal with less new capital and lower unit costs. Market participants should watch the permitting pathway and any future expansion of this model to other Chilean districts as a template for collaborative de-risking.

Anglo 2026 Copper Guidance Falls as Lower Chilean Ore Grades Weigh on Output

Anglo American, Copper

Anglo 2026 copper guidance has been cut as weaker ore grades at Collahuasi reshape the company’s near-term production outlook. Anglo American lowered its 2026 copper guidance to 700,000-760,000 metric tonnes from 760,000-820,000t. The downgrade shows that Anglo 2026 copper guidance is now being driven more by grade reality than by capacity ambition.

The main pressure comes from Chile. Anglo expects copper production at its Chilean operations to fall by an average of 11pc to 390,000-420,000t because of lower-than-expected grades. Peru also faces a smaller downgrade, with guidance cut by 3pc to 310,000-340,000t. As a result, Anglo 2026 copper guidance reflects weakness across both of its main copper regions.

This matters because copper remains central to Anglo’s future value. The company produced 695,000t in 2025, near the lower end of its annual guidance range. Fourth-quarter copper output also dropped 14pc from a year earlier to 169,500t. Therefore, the weaker 2026 view confirms that the company is entering the year from a softer base.

Collahuasi Ore Grades Now Define the Near-Term Copper Story

Collahuasi ore grades are the key reason behind the guidance cut. Lower grades at the Chilean mine are reducing expected production more sharply than previously assumed. That shift matters because Chile remains the largest contributor to Anglo’s copper portfolio. Consequently, even modest grade disappointments can alter the company’s overall copper outlook.

The downgrade also shows how exposed large miners remain to geological variability. Production capacity alone does not guarantee higher output when ore quality weakens. In copper mining, grade is often the most important driver of performance. Therefore, Anglo 2026 copper guidance is a reminder that resource quality still sets the real ceiling.

Anglo Copper Outlook Improves Again After 2026, but Execution Still Matters

Anglo copper outlook beyond 2026 remains more constructive. The company expects total copper production to rise to 750,000-810,000t in 2027 and 790,000-850,000t in 2028. That suggests management still sees the 2026 weakness as temporary rather than structural. However, future recovery will depend on grade performance and operational consistency.

The broader portfolio also shows mixed signals. Manganese ore output rose strongly in 2025 as Gemco returned to normal after cyclone disruption. Nickel production also edged higher, even as Anglo continues trying to exit that business. Meanwhile, the Teck merger is still progressing and could create a top-five global copper producer. As a result, Anglo’s long-term copper strategy remains ambitious even as its 2026 outlook turns more cautious.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This downgrade matters because it cuts through the usual long-term copper optimism with a more immediate geological reality. Anglo still has a strong copper future, but 2026 now looks like a year of grade pressure rather than volume momentum. If Chile does not stabilize, the market may stay cautious even with stronger 2027 and 2028 targets.

Teck Arizona Copper Spin-Out Preserves Optional Supply Upside

Kodiak Copper

Teck Arizona copper spin-out plans show how major miners are trying to retain long-term exposure to copper growth without committing near-term development capital. Teck Resources and junior explorer Kodiak Copper plan to place two lightly drilled Arizona copper projects into a new listed exploration company.

The Teck Arizona copper spin-out would combine Teck’s Copper Hill asset with Kodiak’s Mohave project under Kay Copper, a US-focused exploration vehicle. The new company would be positioned to drill and advance the assets, but any production would remain years away.

The Teck Arizona copper spin-out is modest compared with Teck’s larger strategic moves, including its planned merger with Anglo American. However, it fits a copper market increasingly focused on optional supply, future scarcity and the difficulty of bringing new mines into production.

The structure allows Teck to keep exposure to potential US copper upside while shifting exploration risk and funding needs to outside investors. For Kodiak, the transaction creates a clearer platform around Arizona copper exploration.

Kay Copper Gives Teck Exposure Without Near-Term Capital Pressure

Kay Copper would hold two early-stage Arizona copper projects that have not seen recent drilling. This means the assets are still far from any development decision, resource definition or mine construction timeline.

For Teck, that distance matters. The company can preserve future upside while focusing capital on larger, more advanced priorities. A spin-out also gives investors a dedicated vehicle for exploration risk that may not fit inside a larger producer’s near-term capital plan.

This is a practical response to the copper market. Demand from grids, electric vehicles, data centres and industrial electrification continues to strengthen the long-term case for copper.

At the same time, new copper supply remains difficult to build. Permitting delays, lower grades, higher capital intensity and community approval challenges have extended project timelines across the industry.

Arizona remains strategically relevant because the US wants more domestic copper supply. But early-stage projects still need drilling, studies, permitting, financing and infrastructure before they can become real tonnes.

The Kay Copper structure therefore does not solve near-term supply tightness. It creates an option on future US copper production in the 2030s.

Copper Market Rewards Optionality as New Supply Lags

The deal reflects a broader shift in copper strategy. Companies are increasingly trying to hold undeveloped assets because future supply is becoming more valuable.

Physical copper availability is already under closer scrutiny as demand rises from electrification and power infrastructure. The market is also becoming more policy-driven, especially in the US, where copper is increasingly linked to industrial security and domestic manufacturing.

In that environment, even early-stage assets can attract interest. They may not produce soon, but they offer exposure to a future market where permitted copper projects could carry a stronger strategic premium.

The transaction also shows how larger miners can use junior vehicles to advance non-core exploration assets. This allows capital markets to fund drilling while the major retains some upside.

For investors, the risk remains high. Copper Hill and Mohave are lightly drilled, and any production would not arrive until the 2030s at the earliest. Exploration success, permitting and project economics are still unproven.

For the copper sector, however, the message is clear. Companies do not want to lose optional copper positions in stable jurisdictions, even when those projects are not ready for development.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Teck’s Arizona spin-out is small in tonnage terms but meaningful in market psychology. In a copper market worried about future supply, even distant exploration assets can become strategic options.

Glencore Reverses Course, Retains Coal Assets Amid Strong Profit Potential

In a surprising turn of events, Glencore, the world’s largest producer of seaborne thermal coal, announced it will retain its thermal and carbon steel materials business, abandoning a proposed demerger that was first suggested in November last year. This decision comes after extensive consultations with shareholders, who ultimately recognized the value these assets bring to Glencore’s portfolio.

In its January-June report, Glencore highlighted the cash-generative capacity of its coal and carbon steel materials business, noting that it significantly enhances the quality and diversity of the company’s portfolio across both commodities and geographies. The firm emphasized that these assets would also broaden its ability to fund copper growth projects and accelerate shareholder returns.

Glencore remains the last major coal producer holding onto thermal coal assets, as other industry giants like Rio Tinto, BHP, Anglo American, and Vale have all divested or spun off their coal operations in recent years. Despite environmental opposition, Glencore is keen to underline the profitability of coal.

While the company plans to gradually wind down its thermal coal operations, it indicated that its transition away from steelmaking coal will proceed at a slower pace. Glencore's decision to retain these assets means it will keep its majority stake in Elk Valley Resources, the coking coal division of Canada’s Teck Resources, which it acquired last month.

This move suggests that Glencore and its shareholders see continued value in investing in coking coal, even as broader industry investment has slowed due to pressure from environmental groups and financial institutions. Nonetheless, the elevated coal prices in recent years have enabled key producers to self-fund growth and new projects through reinvested profits.

Glencore also reported that it sold 30 million tonnes of thermal coal in the first half of 2024, a 17% decrease from the previous year, attributed to weak European demand and high gas inventories. Additionally, thermal coal production fell by 2.8 million tonnes to 45.8 million tonnes in the same period, reflecting reduced output in Australia and South Africa.

Overall, Glencore’s coal production, including coking and semi-soft coals from Australia, Colombia, and South Africa, declined by 7% year-on-year to 50.6 million tonnes in the first half of 2024.