US Rare Earths Spending Spree Builds Mine-to-Magnet Power Outside China

Energy Fuels

US rare earths spending spree has rapidly reshaped the non-China industry as American companies acquire mining, refining, metal-making and permanent magnet assets around the world. Large government loans, grants and offtake guarantees have given US-backed groups the financial capacity to consolidate strategic assets across the full value chain.

US rare earths spending spree accelerated with Energy Fuels’ planned $1.9bn acquisition of German permanent magnet maker Vacuumschmelze. The deal follows its $299mn purchase of Australian Strategic Materials, which owns one of the few commercial rare earth metal and alloy plants outside China.

US rare earths spending spree is therefore moving beyond domestic production. Washington-backed capital is allowing US companies to build control or commercial influence over rare earth assets in Europe, South America, Australia, Greenland and Asia.

The result is an emerging US-centred supply network covering mines, separated oxides, metals, alloys and finished NdFeB magnets. That structure could become more important than ownership of any single mineral deposit.

Government Capital Accelerates Global Rare Earth Consolidation

US industrial policy has shifted decisively toward financing complete rare earth supply chains rather than isolated mining projects.

Energy Fuels received a conditional $725mn loan commitment for rare earth processing before announcing the VAC acquisition. Buying the German magnet producer gives Energy Fuels downstream manufacturing capability to complement its growing separation and metal-making assets.

The company had already acquired Australian Strategic Materials in January. ASM’s Korean Metals Plant adds commercial rare earth metal and alloy production, a critical midstream step between separated oxides and permanent magnets.

Other US companies are following the same integration strategy.

USA Rare Earth acquired Brazilian producer Serra Verde for $2.8bn in April. Serra Verde is targeting 6,400 t/yr of rare earth oxide production by 2027, giving USAR direct exposure to one of the more advanced rare earth mining operations outside China.

USAR had previously bought UK-based Less Common Metals for $125mn, adding metal and alloy production capability. That combination links upstream Brazilian resources with downstream metallisation expertise.

Critical Minerals also agreed to acquire European Lithium for $835mn to consolidate ownership around Greenland’s Tanbreez rare earth project.

The pattern is consistent. US-backed companies are using access to capital to purchase scarce assets that would otherwise require years to build and qualify independently.

Government support has made this possible. MP Materials received a multi-billion-dollar package including a price floor, guaranteed offtake and direct government investment. Vulcan Elements and ReElement Technologies received conditional financing support, while USA Rare Earth secured a major federal funding package for its mine-to-magnet development.

Phoenix Tailings also received substantial government-backed financing for rare earth refining.

This capital does more than reduce project risk. It gives US companies the balance-sheet strength to bid for strategic assets elsewhere.

Europe Risks Losing Strategic Control of Its Rare Earth Assets

The US acquisition wave exposes a major weakness in European and other western critical minerals strategies: policy ambition has not always been matched by comparable financing.

Europe still retains important rare earth capabilities. Solvay operates rare earth processing capacity in France, while Neo Performance Materials produces magnets in Estonia.

But ownership is increasingly shifting toward North American groups. VAC will become US-owned if the Energy Fuels transaction closes, while Neo Performance Materials is already controlled from North America.

The same dynamic is emerging in project development. Companies seeking large-scale financing increasingly look to US government programmes rather than domestic European sources.

UK-based Pensana abandoned plans for a UK rare earth refinery and shifted its downstream strategy toward the US, illustrating how capital availability can redirect industrial investment.

This creates an important policy distinction. A rare earth asset can remain physically located in Europe, Brazil, Greenland or Australia while its financing, offtake and strategic direction become increasingly tied to US interests.

That makes Washington’s influence broader than domestic production statistics suggest.

The US does not need every mine or refinery to sit inside its borders. If US-backed companies own assets, control offtake, provide financing or anchor downstream demand, they can still direct material into allied supply chains.

This approach may prove faster than attempting to develop every stage domestically from scratch.

China still dominates global rare earth processing and permanent magnet manufacturing. But outside China, the competitive landscape is increasingly being shaped by access to government-backed capital and the ability to integrate fragmented assets.

The next phase of the rare earth competition will therefore be about ownership and industrial coordination as much as geology. Companies that connect mines, separation, metallisation, alloys and finished magnets will hold the strongest strategic position.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The US is building rare earth influence by financing companies that can buy and integrate scarce ex-China assets. Europe and other allies may retain the mines and factories geographically, but without comparable capital they risk losing strategic control of the value chain.

EGA Al-Taweelah Recycling Plant Expands Low-Carbon Aluminium Capacity

EGA

EGA Al-Taweelah recycling plant has started operations in Abu Dhabi, adding 185,000 t/yr of low-carbon recycled aluminium capacity to Emirates Global Aluminium’s growing secondary metals platform.

EGA Al-Taweelah recycling plant will process both pre-consumer factory scrap and post-consumer aluminium scrap. The project strengthens EGA’s ability to supply customers seeking lower-carbon metal and higher recycled content.

EGA Al-Taweelah recycling plant also marks a recovery milestone after an Iranian missile struck the site on 28 March and delayed completion. Recycled cast metal production resumed in early May, with full ramp-up expected to take up to six months.

The pace of expansion will depend partly on scrap availability, highlighting how access to suitable recycled feedstock is becoming increasingly important to aluminium producers.

Scrap Supply Becomes Critical to EGA’s Ramp-Up

Construction of the Al-Taweelah recycling facility began in late 2023, and EGA charged its first melting furnace in January. Full completion had originally been targeted by the end of the first quarter.

The March missile strike disrupted that schedule and injured several employees. The restart of recycled cast metal production in May allowed EGA to resume the project’s commercial ramp-up.

The 185,000 t/yr facility gives EGA another route to reduce the carbon intensity of its product mix. Secondary aluminium requires significantly less energy than producing primary metal from alumina, making recycled units increasingly attractive to automotive, packaging and industrial customers.

However, scrap availability will determine how quickly the plant reaches nameplate output. Competition for clean pre-consumer and post-consumer aluminium scrap is rising as more producers invest in recycled-content products.

That makes collection, sorting, alloy control and long-term scrap sourcing increasingly important parts of aluminium competitiveness.

EGA Builds Global Secondary Aluminium Network

The Abu Dhabi project is part of a broader international recycling strategy. EGA has been expanding secondary aluminium capacity across Europe and North America through acquisitions and organic investment.

The company acquired German recycler Leichtmetalle in 2024 and later announced a major expansion that will increase the facility’s capacity more than sixfold.

EGA also bought a majority stake in US secondary aluminium smelter Spectro Alloys in 2024. Two subsequent expansions are expected to lift the plant’s capacity to more than 200,000 t/yr of secondary aluminium ingots and billets, from 110,000 t/yr previously.

In April, EGA announced the acquisition of an 80% stake in Italian aluminium recycler Eco Green, further extending its European recycling network.

The strategy gives EGA access to scrap pools closer to major customers while reducing reliance on primary aluminium growth alone. It also allows the company to offer a broader range of low-carbon products across different regions.

For the aluminium market, EGA’s expansion reinforces a wider structural shift. Recycling capacity is becoming a core strategic asset as customers demand lower embedded emissions and governments push for more circular material use.

The Metalnomist Commentary

EGA is turning recycling into a second growth platform alongside primary aluminium. The strategic constraint will increasingly be access to clean, traceable scrap rather than melting capacity itself.

EU Mexico Trade Agreement Opens Clean Tech and Critical Materials Opportunities

EU, Mexico

EU Mexico trade agreement signing marks a major update to a commercial relationship already worth around €100bn/yr in goods and services. The revised deal aims to remove tariffs and non-tariff barriers while creating new opportunities in clean technology, critical raw materials and agri-food trade.

EU Mexico trade agreement provisions will eliminate almost all high Mexican tariffs on EU imports. The affected sectors include machinery, mineral fuels, cars, car parts and a wide range of agri-food products.

EU Mexico trade agreement rules also include legally binding commitments on environmental protection and climate change. This gives the deal a strategic industrial angle beyond conventional tariff reduction.

The interim trade agreement is expected to move faster than the wider modernised global agreement. It needs European Parliament approval and qualified-majority approval from EU member states, rather than ratification by all 27 countries.

Clean Technology and Raw Materials Gain Strategic Relevance

The agreement could strengthen EU-Mexico cooperation in clean technology and critical raw materials. This matters as Europe seeks more diversified supply chains for energy transition equipment, electric vehicles, industrial machinery and advanced manufacturing.

Mexico is already a major manufacturing base linked to North American automotive and industrial supply chains. Better EU access could support machinery, components and clean technology exports into a market positioned between Europe and the US.

The deal also includes strict rules of origin, including for electric vehicles. EU officials said these rules are designed to prevent circumvention and avoid the agreement becoming a backdoor for Chinese production.

That detail is important. As tariffs, subsidies and local-content rules reshape global EV trade, rules of origin are becoming a core tool of industrial policy.

For European manufacturers, clearer access to Mexico may support exports of vehicles, parts, machinery and clean technology systems. For Mexican producers, greater access to the EU could strengthen trade in food, consumer products and selected industrial goods.

Tariff Cuts Combine With Climate and Circular Economy Commitments

Mexico will remove tariffs on key European exports including pork, dairy, cereals, fruit and pasta. Sensitive products will receive limited access through tariff-rate quotas.

The agreement also gives EU exporters broader quota access for dairy, beef, poultry and pork products. In return, Mexican producers will gain more liberalised access to the EU for products including coffee, fruit, chocolate and agave syrup.

Alongside the trade deal, both sides signed a circular economy declaration covering climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution, including plastics. This adds sustainability language to the commercial framework.

The agreement requires both parties to uphold international climate treaties, including the Paris Agreement. It also includes a dedicated dispute settlement procedure.

For metals and industrial supply chains, the wider message is clear. Trade agreements are increasingly combining market access, climate obligations, origin rules and supply-chain security.

The EU is using trade policy to support clean technology, critical raw materials cooperation and industrial competitiveness. Mexico gains deeper access to one of the world’s largest consumer markets while strengthening its role in global manufacturing networks.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU-Mexico deal shows how trade policy is becoming a supply-chain security instrument. The rules of origin for electric vehicles may prove as important as the tariff cuts, especially as Europe tries to protect clean technology markets from indirect Chinese competition.

EU 2026 Growth Forecast Cut as Energy Shock Hits Industrial Outlook

EU energy

EU 2026 growth forecast has been cut to 1.1% as the European Commission warned that the US-Iran war has created a new energy shock, lifted inflation risk and weakened economic sentiment across the bloc.

EU 2026 growth forecast was lowered by 0.3 percentage points from the previous projection of 1.4%. The downgrade reflects the sharp rise in energy costs since late February and the renewed pressure on households, manufacturers and public finances.

EU 2026 growth forecast matters for metals and industrial supply chains because higher gas and oil prices directly affect production costs, margins and demand visibility. Energy-intensive sectors such as aluminium, steel, chemicals, fertilizers and glass remain especially exposed.

The Commission expects EU growth to recover to 1.4% in 2027, while eurozone growth is forecast at 1.2%. But the near-term outlook remains fragile as the energy shock continues to reshape inflation and investment decisions.

Higher Gas and Oil Prices Weigh on European Competitiveness

Energy prices have risen sharply since the outbreak of the conflict. The Commission said gas prices increased by 50% and crude oil prices by 65% between 27 February and the 29 April cut-off date.

The outlook assumes average TTF gas futures prices will be 47% higher in 2026 and 32% higher in 2027 than in the previous forecast. That creates a heavier cost base for European industry.

For manufacturers, the impact is immediate. Higher gas, power and fuel costs reduce competitiveness against producers in regions with cheaper energy.

This is especially important for metals. European smelters, refiners and rolling mills already face pressure from imports, carbon costs and weak demand. Another energy shock could delay restocking and weaken investment appetite.

Inflation is also expected to rise. EU headline inflation is forecast to increase to 3.1% in 2026 from 2.5% in 2025, before easing to 2.4% in 2027.

That inflation path limits policy flexibility. Governments may need to support vulnerable consumers and industries, but public finances are already under pressure.

The EU general government deficit is expected to widen to 3.6% of GDP by 2027, up from 3.1% in 2025. This reduces the room for broad stimulus and increases the importance of targeted support.

Growth Gap Widens Across the EU

The energy shock is affecting member states unevenly. Ireland is forecast to contract by 1.2%, while major economies such as Italy, Germany and France are expected to grow only modestly.

Germany’s growth is forecast at 0.6%, France at 0.8%, Italy at 0.5% and the Netherlands at 1%. These figures point to weak momentum across several core industrial economies.

Southern and eastern Europe show stronger projections. Spain is forecast to grow by 2.4%, Lithuania by 3%, Poland by 3.5% and Malta by 3.7%.

The gap matters because Europe’s industrial recovery will not be uniform. Regions with stronger growth may support construction, infrastructure and manufacturing demand, while slower economies could weigh on metals consumption.

The Commission also warned of a downside scenario in which EU-wide growth falls to just 0.7% this year. That risk depends partly on how quickly oil and gas supply from the Mideast Gulf can normalise.

EU economy commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said Europe should respond by further reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels and keeping fiscal support temporary and targeted.

That message reinforces the strategic link between energy security and industrial competitiveness. Europe has reduced the energy intensity of economic output by about 44% since 1995, but the latest shock shows that import dependence still carries major economic risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s growth downgrade is an industrial warning, not just a macroeconomic revision. The bloc cannot protect metals, manufacturing and clean-energy supply chains without faster domestic energy deployment and lower exposure to imported fossil fuels.

European Ferro-Molybdenum Prices Hit Three-Year High on Concentrate Squeeze

Ferro-Molybdenum

European ferro-molybdenum prices have climbed to a three-year high as tight molybdenum concentrate supply, stronger Chinese steel demand and logistical constraints push the market higher. The rally has lifted prices sharply since the start of the year.

European ferro-molybdenum prices were last assessed at $70.90-71.50/kg in-warehouse Rotterdam on 19 May, up by about 25% from the start of the year. Molybdenum oxide prices also rose to $30.50-30.80/lb duty unpaid Rotterdam, up by 28% over the same period.

European ferro-molybdenum prices are being driven mainly by raw material tightness rather than a broad recovery in European steel demand. Molybdenum concentrate availability has tightened structurally, limiting oxide and ferro-molybdenum production flexibility.

The key problem is that molybdenum is mostly produced as a by-product of copper mining. That means supply cannot quickly respond to higher prices, leaving the market exposed when concentrate availability tightens or downstream demand rises.

Concentrate Tightness Drives the Molybdenum Chain Higher

Molybdenum concentrate is the starting point for the supply chain. It is converted into molybdenum oxide, which then feeds ferro-molybdenum production for alloy steel and stainless steel applications.

Concentrate prices in China have risen by about 29% since January, peaking at 5,235 yuan/mtu on 13 May. That cost increase has moved through the value chain and supported higher oxide and ferro-molybdenum prices.

Chinese steel demand has intensified the squeeze. Mills purchased around 30,000t of ferro-molybdenum in March-April, up 10% from a year earlier.

This buying absorbed much of China’s available spot concentrate and oxide supply. As a result, less material has been available for export to other consuming regions.

Market participants initially expected demand to slow after pre-holiday buying ahead of the 1-5 May Labour Day holiday. Instead, sustained steel mill demand kept buyers active and tightened availability further.

The Centerra Gold Langeloth outage in the US also supported the rally. An explosion near the facility’s acid unit on 29 January led to a suspension of operations, removing an important source of molybdenum oxide and ferro-molybdenum from the prompt market.

The facility’s direct global supply share is limited. However, its outage tightened nearby availability and strengthened bullish sentiment, allowing traders and producers to raise offers more aggressively.

Supply Constraints Outweigh European Demand Recovery

The current rally is largely supply-led. European steel demand has not recovered strongly enough to explain the scale of the price increase on its own.

Logistical constraints have made the situation worse. Financing, freight and inventory bottlenecks have reduced spot availability among trading firms.

Some sellers have also withheld material in expectation of further price gains. At the same time, buyers have resisted higher offers, reducing spot liquidity and creating sharper price movements.

Truckload enquiries have remained limited in recent weeks. This suggests that physical tightness and cautious seller behaviour are driving prices more than a surge in end-user consumption.

For alloy producers and steelmakers, the rally raises cost pressure. Ferro-molybdenum is used to improve strength, corrosion resistance and high-temperature performance in steels used across energy, chemicals, engineering, defence and industrial equipment.

The market’s vulnerability reflects molybdenum’s by-product nature. Even if prices rise sharply, copper mines cannot quickly increase molybdenum output just to meet alloy demand.

That makes the molybdenum chain highly sensitive to disruptions. Concentrate shortages, converter outages, Chinese buying and trading bottlenecks can all create price moves that exceed the underlying change in steel consumption.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The molybdenum rally shows how by-product metals can move violently when small supply disruptions meet concentrated demand. European buyers are not facing a simple steel-demand story; they are facing a raw material chain where concentrate availability now controls ferro-alloy pricing.

Terrafame Scandium Recovery Study Could Create Europe’s First Domestic Supply

Terrafame

Terrafame scandium recovery plans could give Europe its only domestic scandium production source if a new project at the company’s Sotkamo operations in eastern Finland advances. The Finnish metals producer has launched a pre-feasibility study to assess scandium recovery from existing nickel and zinc production streams.

Terrafame scandium recovery would use the company’s current hydrometallurgical circuits, rather than requiring a standalone scandium mine. That gives the project a potentially lower-risk route because Terrafame already processes polymetallic ore and recovers multiple valuable metals.

Terrafame scandium recovery is strategically important because scandium supply remains extremely limited and heavily concentrated in China. Beijing controls around 85% of global supply and tightened export controls on the metal last year.

The study is expected to be completed by the end of 2026. If the project moves forward, Terrafame could target production in 2029.

Existing Circuits Could Lower Development Risk

Terrafame already produces battery-grade nickel, cobalt and copper. It also recovers uranium as a by-product from the same polymetallic ore system.

Adding scandium recovery to existing process streams could improve the value of Terrafame’s hydrometallurgical platform. It would also show how critical minerals can be extracted from established operations without developing entirely new mines.

This matters because scandium is usually produced in very small volumes as a by-product. Reliable recovery depends on chemistry, process control, impurity management and market qualification.

If successful, Terrafame could become a strategic supplier to European customers seeking non-China scandium. That would support supply-chain resilience for aerospace, aluminium alloys, solid oxide fuel cells and advanced materials.

The project also fits Europe’s wider critical raw materials agenda. The EU needs more domestic and allied sources of small-volume metals that support high-value industrial applications.

China Dominance Keeps Scandium Strategically Sensitive

Global scandium production remains limited at around 40-45 t/yr, while consumption reached about 60t in 2025. That small market size makes the supply chain highly sensitive to export controls and project delays.

China’s dominant position has increased interest in alternative sources. Export restrictions have made scandium more relevant to buyers that need secure material for advanced alloy and energy applications.

Several projects globally could increase supply over the next decade, including developments by NioCorp, Rio Tinto and Sunrise. Combined, these projects could lift global supply to 150-250 t/yr if they reach production.

That potential increase has raised some oversupply concerns. However, scandium demand may grow once buyers have more confidence in long-term availability.

This is a common problem for small critical materials markets. Customers hesitate to design around a material if supply is scarce, but producers struggle to invest before demand is proven.

Terrafame’s project could help break part of that cycle in Europe. A Finnish scandium source would not transform the market alone, but it could give manufacturers a more secure regional option.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Terrafame’s scandium study shows how Europe can extract more critical value from existing polymetallic operations. The opportunity is not only new mining, but smarter recovery of strategic by-products already moving through industrial circuits.

Metlen Gallium Project Positions Greece as New EU Critical Materials Hub

Metlen Gallium Project

Metlen gallium project approval gives Greece a stronger role in Europe’s effort to build secure supplies of critical raw materials. The Greek industrial group has secured government approval for its strategic investment to develop gallium production alongside expanded bauxite mining and alumina refining.

Metlen gallium project benefits will include grants and tax incentives totalling around €118mn. These incentives come on top of Metlen’s planned €300mn investment in the gallium production project.

Metlen gallium project development is integrated into Aluminium of Greece operations in central Greece. The structure allows gallium to be recovered as a by-product of alumina refining, linking critical minerals supply to an existing aluminium value chain.

The project matters because gallium is essential for semiconductors, defence systems, artificial intelligence applications and photovoltaics. Europe’s dependence on imported gallium has become more exposed since China imposed export controls in 2023.

Gallium Recovery Strengthens Europe’s Midstream Supply

Metlen produced gallium for the first time in January and plans to scale output over the next two years. Production is expected to continue rising in 2026, with an additional 5-10t forecast for 2027.

The company aims to reach full capacity of around 50 t/yr by 2028. At that level, Greece could become one of the largest gallium producers outside China.

The output could also be sufficient to cover current European import requirements. That would make the project strategically important for Europe’s semiconductor, defence and clean technology sectors.

Gallium recovery from alumina refining is especially significant because it adds value to an existing industrial process. Instead of relying only on new mines, Europe can recover critical materials from established aluminium operations.

This approach improves supply-chain efficiency. It also shows how by-products from major metals industries can become strategic feedstocks for advanced manufacturing.

EU Incentives Back Critical Raw Materials Security

The project has been approved under Greece’s Strategic Investments framework. It is also included under the Clean Industrial Deal State Aid Framework, which supports clean energy, industrial decarbonisation and clean technology.

The European Investment Bank has approved €90mn in financing to support the gallium facility and modernisation of upstream bauxite mining. This gives the project both national and EU-level policy support.

The investment aligns with Europe’s effort to reduce dependence on China for critical minerals. China dominates global gallium production, and its export controls have tightened supply and pushed prices higher.

For the EU, the Metlen project provides more than gallium volume. It creates a domestic industrial route from bauxite and alumina into critical semiconductor materials.

That model could become important for other by-product metals. Europe has limited time to build resilient supply chains, so projects connected to existing industrial assets may offer faster results than standalone greenfield developments.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Metlen’s gallium project shows how Europe can turn existing aluminium infrastructure into critical minerals capacity. The strategic lesson is clear: by-product recovery may become one of the fastest routes to reducing dependence on China.

Nippon Kosice Mill Move Builds Direct European Steel Hub

U.S Steel, Kosice Mill

Nippon Kosice mill ownership is moving into a new phase as Nippon Steel begins the transition to take direct control of US Steel’s Slovakia-based Kosice operation. The move positions the plant as a key European operating hub inside Nippon’s global steel network.

Nippon Kosice mill control matters because the facility is one of Central Europe’s major integrated steel assets. It has crude steel capacity of 4.5mn t/yr and produced 3.2mn t in the 2025 fiscal year.

Nippon Kosice mill operations include three blast furnaces and downstream lines for hot rolling, cold rolling, annealing, tinplate, galvanizing and non-oriented electrical steel. That product range gives the site relevance across automotive, electrical, energy, packaging and construction supply chains.

The mill has been wholly owned by US Steel since 2000. US Steel became a subsidiary of Nippon in 2025, and the latest move will put Nippon in direct control of Kosice’s operations.

Direct Control Strengthens Technology, Sales and Procurement

Nippon’s direct ownership strategy is aimed at improving Kosice’s competitiveness through closer coordination on technology, sales and procurement. This is more than a corporate restructuring.

Integrated steel mills increasingly need stronger technical support to serve higher-grade markets. Customers in automotive, electrical equipment, construction and energy are demanding better surface quality, tighter tolerances, stronger coating performance and more advanced steel grades.

Kosice already has a broad industrial customer base across Europe. Direct integration with Nippon could help the mill improve product development and align more closely with global customers that require high-value steel.

Procurement is also important. European steelmakers face pressure from raw material costs, energy prices, carbon rules and import competition. A stronger link to Nippon’s global network could improve sourcing discipline and operating efficiency.

The plant’s non-oriented electrical steel capability is especially strategic. NOES is used in electric motors, generators and other equipment tied to electrification. As electric vehicles, industrial motors and grid equipment expand, electrical steel quality becomes increasingly important.

Tinplate and galvanizing lines also give Kosice exposure to packaging, automotive and construction demand. These downstream assets allow the mill to capture more value than a basic slab or hot-rolled coil producer.

Central and Eastern Europe Offer High-Grade Steel Growth

Nippon expects steel demand in Central and Eastern Europe to keep growing. That regional view is central to the Kosice strategy.

Manufacturing relocation into the region could support demand for higher-grade steel. Automotive suppliers, electrical equipment producers, energy companies and construction manufacturers all need reliable local steel supply.

Kosice is well placed geographically to serve those markets. Slovakia sits near important automotive and industrial clusters, giving the mill a logistics advantage for regional customers.

The move also gives Nippon a stronger European production base at a time when the steel industry is becoming more regional. Customers increasingly value supply security, shorter delivery routes and stable technical support.

For European steel supply chains, direct Nippon control could bring more disciplined investment and product strategy. The challenge will be upgrading competitiveness while managing Europe’s high energy costs and decarbonisation pressure.

Nippon’s high-value manufacturing technology could help Kosice move further into specialised grades. That would be important if regional demand shifts from commodity steel toward automotive sheet, electrical steel, coated products and precision cold-rolled materials.

The broader industrial meaning is clear. Nippon is not treating Kosice as a passive inherited asset from US Steel. It is positioning the mill as a strategic European platform.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nippon’s Kosice move shows that global steelmakers are concentrating control around regional hubs with high-grade potential. The key test will be whether Nippon can turn Kosice from a legacy integrated mill into a more competitive supplier for Europe’s automotive, electrical and energy transition markets.

EU EV Transition Faces Energy Cost and Trade Policy Pressure

EU energy

EU EV transition plans are facing growing pressure from high energy costs, tougher global competition and a regulatory model that industry leaders say may be weakening Europe’s automotive position. Speakers at the FT Future of the Car Summit warned that Europe must rethink how it competes with China and other industrial economies.

EU EV transition policy has relied heavily on regulation, including the planned 2035 phase-out of new internal combustion engine car sales. But carmakers and suppliers argue that regulation alone cannot deliver a competitive electric vehicle industry if energy prices, subsidies and supply-chain costs remain unfavourable.

EU EV transition challenges are becoming more visible as Chinese automakers gain share in Europe, southeast Asia and Latin America. Chinese producers have built cost-competitive EV platforms through subsidies, domestic competition, supply-chain control and fast industrial scaling.

The debate matters for metals because slower or more expensive electrification can reshape demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper, aluminium and rare earth magnets. Automotive materials demand will still grow, but the path may become less direct and more exposed to policy choices.

China’s EV Scale Forces Europe to Rethink Trade Strategy

European automotive suppliers are calling for a more realistic approach to global competition. The industry is facing rivals that operate under different labour, subsidy and industrial policy conditions.

China has become one of the world’s strongest EV exporters. It accounted for around 40% of global EV exports in 2024, while leading Chinese brands have expanded aggressively with lower-cost, technology-rich vehicles.

This creates a competitive problem for European carmakers. Europe has focused on setting strict emissions targets, while China has focused on making EVs cheaper, scalable and export-ready.

Several industry executives now argue that collaboration may become unavoidable. Western manufacturers may need to partner with Chinese or other international competitors that already have a technological lead in EV platforms, batteries, software and power electronics.

This could change European supply chains. Rather than developing every technology internally, carmakers may increasingly combine European assembly and branding with externally sourced EV systems.

That strategy could support faster electrification, but it also creates dependence on imported components, battery materials and processed inputs. It may help automakers compete on cost, but it does not solve Europe’s strategic materials vulnerability.

Energy Costs Could Slow Consumer Adoption and Metals Demand

High charging and energy costs are another major barrier to Europe’s EV push. If consumers face much higher charging costs than drivers in China or other regions, the economic case for EV adoption weakens.

This is critical because EV demand is highly sensitive to total ownership cost. Batteries may become cheaper, but charging costs, highway tariffs and energy price volatility can still shape consumer decisions.

For battery metals, this matters directly. Slower EV adoption would reduce the speed of demand growth for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese, especially in full battery electric vehicles with large battery packs.

Copper and aluminium remain better positioned across multiple automotive pathways. EVs require copper for wiring, motors, charging systems and power electronics, while aluminium supports lightweighting, battery enclosures and structural components.

However, Europe’s automotive metals demand will increasingly depend on which technology mix wins. Full BEVs support larger battery metals demand, while hybrids and lower-cost EV platforms could shift consumption toward smaller batteries, more electronics and continued use of conventional automotive materials.

The policy challenge is therefore industrial as much as environmental. Europe must reduce emissions while keeping manufacturing competitive, securing raw materials and lowering energy costs for consumers.

If Europe cannot align regulation, energy prices and trade strategy, its EV transition could become a market for imported vehicles rather than a platform for domestic industrial growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s EV problem is not only about regulation or consumer demand. It is about whether the region can build a cost-competitive industrial system around energy, materials, technology and trade before Chinese EV platforms define the market.

NAS Stainless Mill Expansion Strengthens Acerinox’s US Growth Strategy

Acerinox

NAS stainless mill expansion has started operations, giving Acerinox a stronger production base in the US stainless steel market. The Spanish stainless steel and high-performance alloys producer said the expansion at North American Stainless in Kentucky began at the start of 2026.

NAS stainless mill expansion will add 308,000 short tons per year of capacity. This lifts the mill’s annual run rate to 1.85mn short tons from its previous 1.54mn st/yr base.

NAS stainless mill expansion had been delayed from the end of 2025 because of crane repair and revamp work at the site. The start-up now gives Acerinox more exposure to a US market it sees as more stable and attractive than Europe.

The project reinforces Acerinox’s investment preference. The company said US finished stainless base prices have been more stable than European prices, which remain affected by severe swings and the historic lows reached in mid-2023.

US Stainless Market Shows Signs of Recovery

US apparent finished stainless demand fell by 11% year on year in the first quarter. However, demand improved by 5% from the previous quarter, supporting Acerinox’s view that US orders have recently strengthened.

US stainless inventories are now 7% below the historical average and appear stabilised. Deliveries have also grown in recent months, suggesting that the market may be moving beyond the weakest part of the cycle.

North American Stainless operated at an 80% utilisation rate in the quarter, excluding the new expansion. That implies quarterly stainless production of around 308,000st.

The expansion gives Acerinox more leverage if US demand continues to recover. Higher capacity at NAS can support customers in appliances, construction, automotive, energy, industrial equipment and infrastructure applications.

The US market also offers a more attractive pricing environment for Acerinox. Compared with Europe, where stainless producers have faced deeper price volatility, the US provides a clearer platform for investment and margin stability.

Aerospace and Gas Turbines Support High-Performance Alloy Outlook

Acerinox’s high-performance alloys division faced weaker demand from oil and gas and chemical processing customers. Geopolitical uncertainty has slowed investment in those sectors, reducing near-term demand for specialty alloys.

However, the company expects stronger aerospace demand to support Haynes International, a key part of its high-performance alloys business. Aerospace remains an important market for nickel-based and specialty alloys used in engines, structures and high-temperature components.

Industrial gas turbines are another potential growth driver. Demand from AI data centres could support turbine investment as power infrastructure becomes a bottleneck for digital expansion.

This matters because AI data centres require reliable electricity, backup generation and grid reinforcement. That can increase demand for high-temperature alloys used in turbine blades, combustion systems and other demanding energy equipment.

Acerinox’s strategy now has two clear pillars. It is expanding stainless capacity in the US through NAS while positioning high-performance alloys around aerospace and energy infrastructure growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Acerinox is using the US market as its growth anchor because stainless pricing and demand visibility remain stronger than in Europe. The NAS expansion also shows how specialty metals producers are aligning investment with aerospace, data-centre power demand and more resilient regional markets.

Alcoa Norway Aluminium Smelter Expansion Adds Low-Carbon Recycling Capacity

ALCOA

Alcoa Norway aluminium smelter expansion will increase output at the company’s Mosjøen facility while adding new recycling and alloy-casting capabilities. The US aluminium producer plans to invest $65mn to upgrade the Norwegian smelter’s cast house.

Alcoa Norway aluminium smelter expansion is expected to add up to 75,000t of capacity to Mosjøen’s existing 200,000 t/yr production base. The project will be completed in phases, with commissioning and ramp-up scheduled through 2028.

Alcoa Norway aluminium smelter expansion is strategically important because European customers are seeking lower-carbon aluminium with stronger recycled-content credentials. Automotive and packaging buyers are increasingly asking suppliers to meet tighter sustainability and traceability requirements.

The project will allow Alcoa to use post-consumer recycled aluminium at Mosjøen for the first time. That marks a shift from conventional primary output toward a more flexible primary-and-recycled production platform.

Cast House Upgrade Broadens Alloy and Ingot Capability

Alcoa will upgrade Mosjøen’s cast house as the core of the expansion. Planned improvements include a new open-mold foundry casting line and additional melting furnaces.

These upgrades will allow the smelter to produce a broader range of foundry alloys. They will also expand the range of ingot sizes and formats available to customers.

That flexibility matters for downstream users. Automotive, packaging and industrial customers often require specific alloy chemistries, product formats and recycled-content profiles.

The addition of post-consumer recycled aluminium also improves Mosjøen’s ability to serve customers that want lower embedded carbon and more circular material flows. Recycled aluminium can significantly reduce energy intensity compared with primary production.

For Alcoa, the investment strengthens product differentiation. The company can offer not only low-carbon Norwegian smelter output, but also recycled-content ingot and cast alloy options.

Norway Strengthens Europe’s Low-Carbon Aluminium Base

Mosjøen’s location gives the project a strong sustainability profile. Norway’s power system supports lower-carbon aluminium production, making the smelter strategically valuable for European customers.

Alcoa said the increased capacity and recycling capability position Mosjøen as a cornerstone of low-carbon aluminium supply across Europe. That message reflects the market’s shift toward greener metal, not just more metal.

European aluminium buyers are facing tighter carbon, origin and supply-chain expectations. Automotive manufacturers need lightweight materials with credible sustainability claims, while packaging producers are under pressure to increase recycled content.

The project also strengthens Europe’s aluminium supply resilience. New capacity at an existing low-carbon smelter reduces reliance on more carbon-intensive or geopolitically exposed supply routes.

The expansion does not represent a completely new smelter build. Instead, it upgrades an established asset with additional casting, melting and recycling flexibility.

That approach is practical. It adds capacity and product capability without the longer timeline and higher execution risk of a greenfield primary aluminium project.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Alcoa’s Mosjøen investment shows that the next phase of aluminium competitiveness is about carbon profile, recycling capability and product flexibility. European customers will increasingly reward suppliers that can combine low-carbon power, recycled feedstock and qualified alloy formats.

ETM Traxys Offtake Deal Targets Spanish Tin, Tantalum and Niobium Supply

Traxys, Energy Transition Metals 

ETM Traxys offtake deal gives the Penouta mine in Spain a potential route back into critical minerals markets. Australia-listed Energy Transition Metals has signed a non-binding agreement to supply Traxys with tin, tantalum and niobium concentrates from the project.

ETM Traxys offtake deal covers 100% of tantalum, niobium and tin offtake from Penouta. Traxys would also receive exclusive rights to market and sell the material to consumers.

ETM Traxys offtake deal is strategically important because tin, tantalum and niobium all sit inside sensitive electronics, aerospace, defence and advanced manufacturing supply chains. A European source of these concentrates could attract buyers seeking supply outside higher-risk regions.

The agreement runs for 12 months but can be converted into a binding six-year offtake once Penouta begins production. ETM is still finalising its acquisition of the mine’s rights and assets from Strategic Minerals Spain.

Penouta Could Rebuild European Critical Minerals Flow

Penouta has a meaningful production history. At its peak, the mine produced up to 60t/month of tin concentrates and 10t/month of tantalum concentrate.

Primary mining stopped in October 2023 after legal action from an environmental group. Tailings and waste processing continued until 2024.

This history matters because Penouta is not only an exploration concept. It has already produced commercially relevant concentrate streams, although any restart will depend on legal, environmental, operating and financing conditions.

Tin is essential for solder, electronics and industrial alloys. Tantalum is critical for capacitors, high-reliability electronics, data-centre chips and aerospace applications. Niobium supports high-strength steel, superalloys and advanced industrial materials.

A restart would therefore add more than mine volume. It would strengthen Europe’s access to strategic minor metals at a time when buyers are reassessing origin risk, traceability and supply-chain resilience.

Traxys’ involvement adds commercial weight. As a global trading house, it can connect concentrate output with qualified consumers, financing channels and strategic buyers.

Traxys Link Adds Strategic Reserve Relevance

Traxys is one of three trading companies selected to procure critical minerals for the US government’s $12bn Project Vault strategic reserve. That gives the Penouta agreement a broader geopolitical dimension.

The offtake does not automatically mean Penouta material will enter a strategic reserve. However, Traxys’ role shows how traders are becoming central to critical minerals security.

This model is increasingly important. Mining companies need offtake and market access, while governments and manufacturers need reliable material flows from politically acceptable sources.

Tin, tantalum and niobium markets have also been volatile this year. Tantalite prices reached record levels in March because of tight supply from central Africa and strong demand from capacitors and tantalum-bearing chips used in data centres.

Tin prices have also risen sharply, supported by investor interest and tighter market sentiment. The London Metal Exchange three-month tin contract has climbed strongly from a year earlier.

These price moves underline the value of diversified supply. Small-volume critical minerals can move quickly when supply is disrupted or when strategic buyers increase procurement.

For ETM, the Traxys agreement could improve Penouta’s commercial credibility. For Traxys, it provides early access to a European source of tin, tantalum and niobium concentrates.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Penouta agreement shows how strategic traders are moving earlier into critical minerals offtake. If ETM can restart production, Spanish tin, tantalum and niobium could become more valuable as buyers seek traceable supply outside fragile regions.

Battery Metals Demand Faces Slower Path as Hybrid Vehicle Growth Extends

Battery Metals

Battery metals demand could face a slower growth path as carmakers and suppliers expect hybrids and range extenders to remain important for longer than earlier electric-only transition models assumed. Speakers at the FT Future of the Car summit said vehicle decarbonisation should be measured by emissions reduction, not only battery electric vehicle share.

Battery metals demand remains structurally supported by electrification. However, a longer hybrid phase could reduce near-term demand intensity for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese because hybrid vehicles use smaller battery packs than full battery electric vehicles.

Battery metals demand assumptions are therefore becoming more complex. Automotive electrification is still progressing, but the industry is moving toward a mixed powertrain future rather than a simple shift from combustion engines to full BEVs.

Horse Powertrain chief executive Matias Giannini said half of passenger vehicles could still be produced with some form of combustion or hybrid powertrain by 2040. That outlook would keep investment flowing into efficient hybrid systems alongside EV platforms.

Hybrid Growth Changes the Battery Raw Materials Curve

Hybrid vehicle growth could temper the pace of battery raw material demand without reversing electrification. Hybrids and range extenders still require electric motors, inverters, wiring and batteries, but their battery packs are much smaller than those used in BEVs.

This matters most for nickel. High-nickel NCM and NCA batteries are closely tied to longer-range BEVs, where larger packs are needed to deliver performance and driving range.

A slower BEV ramp-up could delay some of the nickel sulphate demand growth that has supported investment cases for new battery-grade nickel projects. It could also affect cobalt and manganese demand in cathode chemistries exposed to full EV penetration rates.

Lithium remains supported across almost every electrification pathway. Still, a longer hybrid transition could slow the rate at which large-format BEV batteries absorb lithium units.

The shift does not mean automotive metals demand will weaken across the board. Hybrids use more copper than conventional combustion vehicles because they require electric motors, power electronics and more complex wiring systems.

Continued hybrid and combustion production also supports aluminium castings, stainless steel, exhaust components and engine-related materials. Meanwhile, BEV growth still supports aluminium lightweighting, copper wiring, charging infrastructure and battery materials.

The result is a less linear automotive metals outlook. Battery metals may grow more slowly than aggressive BEV scenarios suggest, while broader automotive metals consumption remains supported by platform complexity and mixed powertrain production.

Policy Flexibility Could Reshape European Metal Demand

European suppliers are pushing for more flexibility in the EU regulatory framework. Current policy remains heavily weighted toward full electrification through tailpipe emissions targets.

The EU targets a 100% reduction in tailpipe emissions from new cars and vans from 2035. That effectively ends new combustion engine sales unless future exemptions are created.

Industry participants increasingly want a more technology-neutral route. They argue that hybrids, range extenders, renewable fuels and lower-carbon manufacturing should contribute to emissions reduction alongside BEVs.

This policy debate matters for metals. Battery material demand depends heavily on BEV penetration, average pack size and chemistry choice.

If Europe allows a longer role for hybrids and range extenders, lithium-ion battery capacity demand per vehicle could grow more slowly. That would affect demand forecasts for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese.

Chinese EV and hybrid technology is also improving quickly. This puts pressure on European and US automakers to share development costs across BEV, hybrid and range-extender platforms.

For suppliers, the strategic issue is flexibility. Companies tied only to high-growth BEV battery assumptions may face demand timing risk, while suppliers serving copper, aluminium, stainless steel, electronics and hybrid systems may benefit from a broader platform mix.

The automotive transition is still real, but the material demand path is becoming more diversified. Metals markets must now track powertrain mix, not only EV sales headlines.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hybrid growth does not weaken the energy transition, but it changes the metals timing. Battery metals demand will still rise, yet copper, aluminium and hybrid-related materials may capture more value if automakers choose a longer mixed-powertrain route.

Aurubis Copper Outlook Rises as Sulphuric Acid Offsets Weak TC/RCs

Aurubis

Aurubis copper outlook has improved as stronger sulphuric acid revenues, higher recycling charges and resilient European copper product demand offset weak concentrate treatment and refining charges. Europe’s largest copper producer and recycler raised its full-year operating earnings before tax guidance to €425mn-525mn.

Aurubis copper outlook had previously stood at €375mn-475mn. The upgrade reflects a stronger market environment, especially for sulphuric acid, which is now expected to make a notably higher earnings contribution than last year.

Aurubis copper outlook is important because it shows how copper smelter economics are no longer driven only by concentrate treatment charges. By-product acid revenue, recycling margins and downstream copper product demand are becoming increasingly important earnings buffers.

The company’s operating EBT rose by 22% year on year to €121mn in January-March, while operating Ebitda increased by 19% to €187mn.

Acid Revenue Helps Cushion Concentrate Market Pressure

Sulphuric acid has become a key earnings support for Aurubis. Restricted sea traffic in the Middle East has tightened global sulphur supply since March, reducing acid availability and lifting spot prices.

Aurubis is not fully exposed to spot acid price movements because of its term contract structure. However, higher sulphuric acid revenues are still expected to contribute more strongly to earnings this fiscal year.

The company produced 585,000t of sulphuric acid in the second quarter, up 6% from a year earlier. First-half output rose by 5% to 1.17mn t, supported by higher concentrate throughput at its primary smelters.

This is strategically important for copper smelters. Weak TC/RCs normally pressure margins, but acid revenue can partly offset that weakness when acid markets tighten.

Aurubis processed 620,000t of copper concentrate in the second quarter, up 4% on the year. First-half concentrate throughput rose by 4% to 1.25mn t.

The company said announced utilisation adjustments, especially in China, are unlikely to fully offset this year’s expected concentrate deficit. This confirms that the copper concentrate market remains structurally tight.

Aurubis remains confident in concentrate supply because of long-term contracts and supplier diversification. The group said it is already supplied with concentrates well into the fourth quarter of its 2025-26 fiscal year.

Copper cathode output from the custom smelting and products segment was broadly stable at 150,000t in the second quarter. First-half cathode output was unchanged at 301,000t.

Recycling and Wire Rod Demand Strengthen Earnings Base

Aurubis’ downstream copper demand showed a clear split across European end markets. Wire rod demand remained strong, while shapes demand weakened because of slower automotive activity.

Wire rod output rose by 8% year on year to 241,000t in the second quarter. First-half wire rod production increased by 4% to 442,000t, supported by demand from energy infrastructure.

The company expects wire rod demand to grow this fiscal year, especially from infrastructure, renewable energy and data-centre expansion. This highlights copper’s role in electrification, grid build-out and digital infrastructure.

However, Aurubis expects overall sales to be slightly below last year’s level. High copper prices, rising energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on customer behaviour.

Shapes output fell by 13% year on year to 39,000t in the second quarter and by 14% to 73,000t in the first half. This reflects weaker automotive demand, showing that not all copper-consuming sectors are recovering at the same pace.

Recycling conditions improved. The recycling segment’s Ebitda rose by 56% year on year to €63mn in the second quarter, while EBT increased to €38mn from €23mn.

Higher copper prices encouraged dealers to release scrap inventories, improving European scrap and blister copper availability. This lifted refining charges above both the previous quarter and the same period last year.

Aurubis processed 246,000t of copper scrap and blister copper in the first half, broadly in line with 249,000t a year earlier. Recycling segment cathode output rose by 5% year on year to 133,000t in the second quarter and by 4% to 266,000t in the first half.

The company expects recycling to make a stronger earnings contribution this fiscal year. But scrap availability will remain volatile because collection activity and dealer behaviour are closely tied to copper prices.

Aurubis now expects full-year operating Ebitda of €700mn-800mn. It expects operating EBT of €370mn-430mn from custom smelting and products and €115mn-175mn from multi-metal recycling.

A maintenance shutdown at Lunen in May-June is expected to reduce operating EBT by €10mn. Even with that impact, the upgraded guidance shows that Aurubis is benefiting from a more diversified earnings base across acid, recycling and copper products.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Aurubis’ upgraded guidance shows that copper smelters with acid, recycling and downstream product exposure are better positioned than pure concentrate processors. The strategic lesson is clear: in a world of weak TC/RCs, the strongest copper players will be those that control more value across by-products, scrap and end-use demand.

Pax Silica Initiative Gains Norway as Western Supply Chains Tighten Around AI and Semiconductors

Pax silica

Pax Silica initiative membership has expanded with Norway joining the US-led framework for artificial intelligence, semiconductors and critical raw materials security. The move adds a European partner with low-carbon power, industrial metals capacity and growing critical minerals relevance.

The Pax Silica initiative has become part of Washington’s effort to reduce dependence on China in critical minerals, semiconductor supply chains and AI infrastructure. Norway’s accession strengthens the coalition’s European minerals, energy and capital base.

The Pax Silica initiative now includes countries with complementary strengths in mining, processing, technology, energy, finance and advanced manufacturing. That mix is important because strategic supply chains increasingly require more than mineral deposits alone.

Norway’s ambassador to the US, Anniken Huitfeldt, is expected to sign the initiative, giving Norway a formal role in a US-backed economic security framework.

Norway Adds Low-Carbon Metals, Capital and Rare Earth Potential

Norway brings several advantages to the coalition. The country has a long-established aluminium and ferro-alloys industry, access to low-carbon power and a growing policy focus on critical raw materials.

Its role has also become more relevant because of work on the Fen rare earth deposit in southern Norway. Rare earths are central to permanent magnets, defence systems, electric motors, wind turbines and advanced electronics.

Norway’s sovereign wealth fund also gives the country strategic capital relevance. In critical minerals, financing capacity can be as important as geology because new projects require long development timelines, technical qualification and patient capital.

Norway said Pax Silica could give domestic companies stronger access to advanced technology value chains. This matters for suppliers that want to connect local raw materials, clean power and industrial capabilities with AI, semiconductor and defence-linked markets.

The country is also aligning its wider policy with key partners through the EU Critical Raw Materials Act and European Chips Act. That creates a bridge between European industrial policy and the US-led supply-chain framework.

Supply-Chain Blocs Reshape Mineral Investment Logic

The industrial significance of Pax Silica lies less in immediate metal flows and more in policy direction. Western governments are building supply-chain blocs that link raw materials, processing, capital and end-use manufacturing across allied jurisdictions.

This could affect future investment decisions in rare earths, aluminium, silicon-related materials, battery metals and other inputs tied to semiconductors and AI infrastructure.

The framework also reflects a shift in how critical minerals projects are evaluated. Access to technology partners, downstream customers, public financing and geopolitical alignment may increasingly determine which projects advance.

For Norway, membership strengthens its position in the emerging western critical minerals architecture. For the wider market, it reinforces the idea that supply security is becoming a structured policy goal rather than a simple procurement choice.

This trend will matter for metals producers, refiners, traders and manufacturers. Companies that can operate inside trusted supply-chain blocs may gain better access to capital, offtake support and advanced technology customers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Norway’s entry into Pax Silica shows that critical minerals strategy is now merging with AI, semiconductor and economic security policy. The next phase of mineral competition will be defined by blocs that combine geology, capital, clean energy and downstream demand.

Ferroglobe Silicon Shipments Fall as European Plants Face Import Pressure

Ferroglobe

Ferroglobe silicon shipments fell in the first quarter after the company suspended production across its European silicon metal plants in October. The decline shows how weak demand and low-priced imports are reshaping Europe’s silicon metal market.

Ferroglobe silicon shipments dropped by 15.9% year on year to 30,533t in January-March. The company later restarted one of two furnaces at its Anglefort plant in France to maintain an EU operating presence.

Ferroglobe silicon shipments remain under pressure because European production costs are still struggling to compete against lower-cost third-country imports. The company warned that the current market structure is no longer viable during a prolonged period of depressed demand.

The issue is strategically important because silicon metal supports aluminium alloys, silicones, solar materials, semiconductors and industrial chemicals. If European smelting capacity continues to close, the region’s downstream industries will become more dependent on imported feedstock.

European Silicon Metal Faces Low-Cost Import Pressure

Ferroglobe said the European silicon metal market remains under pressure from China and Angola. Angola has emerged as a faster-growing supplier into the EU, increasing its market share during the first two months of 2026.

Angola supplied 993t of silicon metal to the EU in February, up by around two-thirds from a year earlier. Its EU market share more than doubled to 3.3% in January-February from 1.5% a year earlier.

This matters because even modest import share gains can influence pricing when demand is weak. European producers with higher energy and operating costs have limited room to absorb lower selling prices.

Ferroglobe has called for the EU to introduce anti-dumping duties on certain third-country suppliers selling at low prices into the bloc. The company made the request after the European Commission excluded silicon metal from last year’s safeguard investigation.

The policy question is now becoming more urgent. Europe wants strategic materials security, but it also needs trade tools that keep domestic production viable when imports undercut regional cost structures.

Without stronger protection or demand recovery, European silicon metal output could remain constrained. That would weaken the region’s ability to support aluminium, chemicals, solar and advanced manufacturing supply chains from local feedstock.

Ferro-Alloy Sales Offset Silicon Weakness

Ferroglobe’s broader first-quarter performance was supported by stronger silicon-based and manganese-based alloy shipments. This helped offset weaker silicon metal volumes.

Shipments of silicon-based alloys rose by 41.6% year on year to 60,674t. The increase was driven by stronger US demand for ferro-silicon.

However, average selling prices for silicon-based alloys fell by 4.9% to $2,016/t. Competitive conditions in the US and South Africa limited pricing power despite stronger volumes.

Manganese-based alloy sales also improved sharply. Shipments rose by 27.5% to 85,743t, supported by recently implemented safeguard measures.

The average selling price for manganese-based alloys increased by 12.8% to $1,250/t because of higher European prices. This shows how trade measures can directly support pricing when regional supply protection is in place.

Ferroglobe’s total sales rose by 13.2% year on year to $347.7mn. The increase came from higher silicon-based and manganese-based alloy volumes, along with stronger manganese alloy pricing.

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation increased by 112.5% to $3.3mn. The improvement was meaningful, but margins remain thin for a company operating in volatile alloy and silicon markets.

The company is also considering reopening operations in Venezuela. Those assets are close to the US market and could benefit from low-cost energy, raw materials and favourable logistics.

That strategy reflects the changing economics of ferro-alloy and silicon production. Energy cost, trade access, import protection and proximity to customers are becoming more important than legacy European capacity alone.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ferroglobe’s results show that Europe’s silicon metal problem is not only weak demand; it is structural cost exposure against lower-priced imports. If the EU wants domestic critical industrial material capacity, silicon metal may need the same policy seriousness now being applied to batteries, magnets and semiconductors.

Nowa Sol Copper Concentrate Talks Could Link Lumina Metals to KGHM Smelters

Lumina Metals

Nowa Sol copper concentrate could become a new feed source for Poland’s dominant copper producer after Lumina Metals entered talks with KGHM over a potential supply agreement. The companies have signed a preliminary agreement to discuss concentrate supply from Lumina’s Nowa Sol project to KGHM’s copper smelters.

Nowa Sol copper concentrate discussions remain at an early stage. The agreement is not legally binding, but it gives both companies a formal framework to assess volumes, product quality and metallurgical compatibility.

Nowa Sol copper concentrate is strategically important because the project sits inside Poland’s northern copper belt, close to KGHM’s existing copper-silver operations. That location could reduce logistical complexity if the project advances and concentrate proves suitable for KGHM’s smelting system.

The talks also show how European copper producers are looking more closely at regional feedstock options. Copper concentrate availability remains tight globally, and smelters increasingly value nearby, compatible and traceable supply.

KGHM Compatibility Will Decide Commercial Potential

KGHM’s interest will depend on whether Nowa Sol concentrate fits its smelter requirements. Copper concentrate supply is not interchangeable because each smelter has limits around grade, impurities, mineralogy and blending needs.

The preliminary agreement focuses directly on those issues. Lumina and KGHM will evaluate potential volumes, product quality and metallurgical compatibility before any binding offtake structure can emerge.

This matters because smelter feed security is becoming more valuable. Global copper concentrate treatment charges have remained under pressure, reflecting tight mine supply and strong competition among smelters for suitable feed.

For KGHM, a nearby Polish concentrate source could offer strategic advantages if the material meets technical requirements. It could support domestic smelter utilisation and reduce dependence on longer-distance concentrate flows.

For Lumina, a potential supply route to KGHM would strengthen the Nowa Sol project’s commercial pathway. A project located near an established copper producer has a clearer route to market than one that must rely entirely on distant export channels.

Poland’s Copper Belt Gains Strategic Attention

Nowa Sol is Lumina’s flagship underground copper project. It covers a 120km² concession area in Poland’s northern copper belt, a region already associated with copper and silver production.

The project’s location near KGHM’s operations gives it industrial relevance beyond resource potential. Proximity to mining infrastructure, smelting expertise and an established copper workforce can improve development logic if technical and economic studies support the project.

Lumina listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange in April to raise capital for Nowa Sol. The KGHM discussions could help strengthen investor confidence by showing that the project has potential domestic offtake interest.

Poland is already a meaningful copper jurisdiction because of KGHM’s role as the country’s main producer. Any new copper concentrate source inside the same industrial region could support national and European supply security.

The broader market context is also supportive. Copper demand is rising from grids, electrification, renewable energy, data centres and industrial manufacturing, while new mine supply remains difficult to develop.

That makes regional copper projects more strategically valuable. Europe needs not only refined copper, but also mine supply and concentrate flows that can support existing smelting capacity.

The Lumina-KGHM talks are therefore modest in legal status but meaningful in direction. They show how copper supply chains are becoming more regional, technical and security-focused.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The potential Lumina-KGHM deal shows that copper value is increasingly tied to location and smelter fit, not only resource size. If Nowa Sol can deliver compatible concentrate near KGHM’s system, it could become a useful European copper supply asset.