China’s CMOC meets cobalt output guidance as DRC export curbs reshape supply

CMOC

China’s CMOC meets cobalt output guidance for 2025 after steady performance at its DRC assets. China’s CMOC meets cobalt output guidance with 117,549 tonnes of cobalt from Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu. China’s CMOC meets cobalt output guidance despite DRC export restrictions that disrupted feedstock flows.

CMOC’s 2025 output rose slightly from 114,165 tonnes in 2024. The company kept its 2026 cobalt guidance at 100,000–120,000 tonnes, matching its 2025 range. Meanwhile, higher copper prices supported earnings because copper remains the main by-product.

Copper strength funds CMOC’s Kisanfu expansion

Copper prices stayed strong through 2025 and hit a new record in early January 2026. The rally reflected tight concentrate supply, rate cuts, and tariff risk expectations. Therefore, CMOC can finance growth while defending margins in a volatile cobalt market.

CMOC is investing $1.08bn in the Kisanfu Phase II project. The project targets an extra 100,000 tonnes per year of copper cathode output, with start-up expected in 2027. However, the company has not disclosed the cobalt capacity uplift, although the market expects a meaningful increase.

DRC export restrictions tighten the feedstock pipeline

DRC policy changes remain the core swing factor for cobalt availability. The government halted cobalt feedstock exports from 22 February to 15 October 2025, then shifted to a quota system for late 2025 and 2026–27. Meanwhile, procedural delays prevented any feedstock exports in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The government has now approved a limited number of hydroxide truck shipments. Those shipments have reached Lubumbashi, a key logistics hub. As a result, market participants expect the first new feedstock to reach China in April, after royalties are paid and cargoes clear onward transport.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CMOC’s results show how copper economics can cushion cobalt volatility inside integrated Cu-Co systems. However, DRC export controls introduce timing risk that can ripple into battery chemical supply chains. Producers that diversify refining routes and secure compliant logistics will gain resilience.

CMOC meets 2025 cobalt guidance as copper strength offsets DRC export curbs and quota delays.

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