China to Overpower Brazil in Rare Earths Through 2050

Brazil in Rare Earths

China to overpower Brazil in rare earths as processing capacity stays highly concentrated in China. Brazil holds vast reserves, but processing lags. Therefore, China to overpower Brazil in rare earths remains the base case through 2050. Brazil eyes offshore and onshore reserves to raise output. However, processing bottlenecks still define market power.

Processing Dominance Shapes Market Power

China to overpower Brazil in rare earths reflects processing, not geology. China handled 90% of rare earth processing in 2022. Malaysia held 9% and Estonia 1%. Meanwhile, China produced 68% of rare earths in 2022. The US and Australia followed at 11% and 9%. IEA sees China’s magnet REE mine supply up 24% by 2035. Australia may quadruple output to 14,570t by 2035. Yet processing concentration keeps China’s strategic lead intact.

Brazil’s Resource Scale Meets Early-Stage Industry

Brazil holds 23% of global rare earth reserves. It also holds 26% of graphite and 94% of niobium. Even so, commercial production is nascent. Serra Verde is Brazil’s only REE producer today. New entrants target Brazil’s clays and carbonatites. REA and Aclara plan Dy, Tb, and NdPr projects. Government ambitions include the Rio Grande Rise offshore. Success still requires midstream plants and clean leach circuits.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Processing remains the real chokepoint, not reserves. Brazil’s path runs through solvent extraction investment and ESG-credible reagents. Watch pilot circuits, offtakes, and financing signals that enable non-China midstream scale.