Tight Supply to Underpin the China Tungsten Market Until 2027

Tungsten

The China tungsten market will stay tight through 2027 as supply lags demand. Production cuts at large mines have reduced domestic feedstock while end markets expand. As a result, prices rose sharply this year and may remain firm until new capacity arrives. China’s tungsten concentrate output fell to 153,200t WO₃ equivalent in 2024 from 178,500t in 2022. Meanwhile, demand climbed to 257,400t in 2024 after 247,300t in 2023, leaving a large deficit covered by imports and scrap. Analysts at the Suzhou industry conference said the China tungsten market should avoid a major pullback before 2027. They noted that relief will likely come only when new large mines start up.

Supply gap persists until new mines start in 2027

Conference speakers highlighted a stubborn supply gap and slow project timing. They expect about 20,000 t/yr of concentrate additions from Dahutang, Bobai Judian and a Shizhuyuan upgrade, but only from 2027. Therefore, the China tungsten market will likely rely on imported concentrate and more scrap recovery. Producers have already rationed APT availability and favored term contracts. Traders reported tight spot liquidity and cautious offers as prices adjusted upward through August.

Demand broadens across high-tech and special steel, but cost risks rise

Downstream demand remains robust in nuclear, military, solar, chips, aviation and new energy. These sectors value tungsten’s high density and extreme melting point. Special steel consumes about 18% of tungsten and may grow 3% as mills pivot from commodity grades. However, ferro-tungsten costs have jumped with feedstock prices. Consequently, mills could test partial substitution to manage input inflation, which may trim tungsten intensity at the margin. Even so, speakers expect structurally strong use in precision tooling, superalloys and solar glass cutting.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Pricing power rests on sustained deficits until 2027 project starts. Watch APT contract terms, scrap flows, and military and solar glass orders for near-term direction. If ferro-tungsten costs stay elevated, special steel substitution could cap further upside yet keep prices supported.