BHP Domestic Copper Investment Shifts Focus Back to Australia

BHP

BHP domestic copper investment will rise as the company pivots to Australia. BHP domestic copper investment offsets medium-term grade declines in Chile and Brazil. Therefore, BHP domestic copper investment targets new smelting capacity and mine upgrades in South Australia. Pampa Norte output will ease to 235,000 t/yr in the medium term. Escondida will trend toward 900,000–1,000,000 t/yr by 2030. Management is also evaluating debottlenecking and sulphide leaching options.

Australian smelting plans advance while South American grades fall

BHP plans a two-phase South Australian investment program. The first phase would lift smelting to 1.1–1.4mn t/yr of concentrate. An investment decision is now slated for 2028. The plan includes expansions at Olympic Dam and Carrapateena. However, Australian energy and construction costs remain challenging. Even so, domestic smelting would improve supply security and value capture.

Chilean portfolio resets with debottlenecking and leaching options

Pampa Norte guidance falls from 268,000 t in FY24–25. It sits at the low end of 230,000–250,000 t for FY25–26. BHP is assessing concentrator debottlenecking for a 2027 decision. It may restart Cerro Colorado using sulphide leaching. Meanwhile, Escondida declines with lower feed grades. Output moves to 900,000–1,000,000 t/yr to 2030. Regional peers also flag cost pressures on processing.

The Metalnomist Commentary

BHP’s pivot hedges grade risk with domestic integration, but cost inflation is real. Watch the 2028 smelter decision, leaching pilots at Cerro Colorado, and debottlenecking returns at Pampa Norte.