Airbus titanium demand recovery pushed back to 2027

Airbus

Airbus titanium demand recovery is now expected only from 2027, not in the near term. The Airbus titanium demand recovery will be delayed because the airframer must first work through heavy inventories built since 2024. As a result, Airbus titanium demand recovery will follow a contraction in 2026, even as long-term build rates remain ambitious.

Airbus expects titanium consumption to fall again in 2026 as it adjusts stock levels. Inventory accumulated in 2024 came from higher build-rate plans that later ran into supply bottlenecks. Engine shortages, fuselage delays and other critical component issues limited actual aircraft output in 2025. Therefore, the company will use 2026 to rebalance stocks rather than ramp up fresh titanium purchases. Airbus has not disclosed exact volume figures, but messages to suppliers clearly signal another year of destocking.

However, Airbus also warned the supply chain against excessive destocking that could overshoot. The company stressed that underlying demand for aircraft remains strong, with firm build-rate targets later this decade. If mills and forgers cut titanium output too aggressively, they may struggle to respond when orders normalize. Because aerospace-grade titanium products have long lead times, any deep cuts today risk a future supply crunch once Airbus resumes higher procurement.

Misaligned demand signals frustrate titanium suppliers

Titanium producers see a mismatch between Airbus’ forecast and normal demand timing. One producer highlighted the typical 18–24 month lag between upstream titanium melt and a completed aircraft. On that basis, even a backloaded ramp to 12 A350s per month by 2028 and 75 A320s per month by 2027 should already be influencing metal orders. This perceived misalignment signals just how elevated Airbus’ titanium inventory still is. Suppliers holding finished or near-finished parts also face strict programme designations, which limit their ability to reallocate material.

Meanwhile, Airbus is configuring a backloaded delivery profile for 2025. The company expects engine deliveries to recover before year-end, allowing completion of A320neo “gliders” currently waiting on final assembly lines. It is also preparing to integrate Spirit AeroSystems “extremely soon” to stabilise structures supply for the A220 and A350. Once these bottlenecks ease, physical aircraft output should better align with planned build rates, but titanium drawdowns will still prioritise existing inventory before new orders.

Scrap circularity becomes strategic in Airbus titanium demand recovery

Scrap circularity now sits at the core of Airbus’ titanium strategy. The company aims for more than half of scrap generated by Airbus programmes to be reverted and allocated back into its own supply chain by 2028. This policy supports security of supply and reduces exposure to primary melt volatility. It also dovetails with wider decarbonisation trends, as revert-based flows typically carry a lower embedded carbon footprint.

However, Airbus must balance this scrap strategy with Europe’s broader titanium ecosystem. The EU is a net exporter of aerospace-grade titanium scrap to the US under long-standing circular arrangements. If more revert is retained within Airbus programmes, less high-grade scrap may be available for external consumers. That could tighten regional revert markets and reshape flows into US melting routes over time. For titanium producers and scrap processors, Airbus’ policy will influence pricing, contract structures and investment decisions in revert sorting and upgrading capacity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The delayed Airbus titanium demand recovery shows that aerospace cycles are now driven as much by system bottlenecks and inventory management as by headline build rates. For titanium mills and forgers, the next 12–24 months will be about survival through disciplined capacity planning, flexible contracts and deeper scrap integration. When recovery finally arrives around 2027, the suppliers that invested in revert circularity and closer programme partnerships are likely to capture the strongest margins.