Delta Pulls Full-Year Forecast Amid US Tariffs

Delta air

Tariff Uncertainty Forces Strategic Shift

Delta Air Lines has withdrawn its full-year 2025 forecast, citing escalating US tariff uncertainty. The airline announced the move during its Q1 earnings call, stating that current trade dynamics prevent accurate forecasting.

Delta emphasized its unwillingness to purchase aircraft that incur tariff-related cost increases. "If you start to put a 20pc incremental cost on top of an aircraft, it gets very difficult to make that math work," CEO Ed Bastian explained. The airline is focusing on preserving margins and cash flow by curbing capacity growth and reducing capital expenditures.

Tariffs Reshape Operational and Regional Outlook

US tariffs introduced in April — including a 10pc baseline and higher reciprocal duties — have added pressure to international trade and aviation. While President Trump delayed the harshest measures for 90 days, tariffs on Chinese goods were increased further.

Meanwhile, Delta saw a Q1 profit of $240mn, up sharply from $37mn last year, despite weaker corporate confidence. Premium travel and loyalty bookings remained strong, though softness appeared in domestic and standard fare segments. Delta also reported declining bookings in Canada and a potential future capacity cut in both Canada and Mexico.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Delta’s response highlights how macro-level trade policy decisions ripple through capital-intensive sectors like aviation. With aerospace supply chains already strained by materials inflation and logistics costs, these tariffs risk slowing fleet modernization and increasing downstream pressure on alloy, composite, and engine component suppliers.