EU Molybdenum Market Faces Pressure in 2025 from Rising Supply and Slowing Demand

Molybdenum

Price Declines Expected Amid Increased Production and Weak Steel Demand

The European molybdenum market is under significant pressure as supply surges while demand remains sluggish. This imbalance is expected to push prices down further from their 2024 highs, as both production and consumption trends signal an ongoing shift in the market.

In early February, the European molybdenum complex saw prices hit a nine-month low. Ferro-molybdenum (FeMo) was assessed at $49.40-49.80/kg in Rotterdam, while molybdenum oxide (MoOx) was priced at $20.60-20.85/lb. These figures represent a notable dip from the highs observed in 2023, when prices were buoyed by a shortage of immediate supplies. The average FeMo price in 2024 was $49.74/kg, the second highest since 2008, while MoOx prices averaged $19.63/lb, marking the second highest level since 2008.

Increased Supply Pressures Prices

Rising supply is a major factor contributing to the downward pressure on prices. Major molybdenum producers, such as Freeport-McMoRan and Chilean state-owned Codelco, are ramping up production at their copper mines, where molybdenum is often recovered as a by-product. This increase in output is expected to intensify competition in the market and put further strain on prices. In addition, the expansion of Chinese production, driven by efforts to restructure the steel industry, is set to add to global supply levels. The adoption of advanced manufacturing techniques is also contributing to greater output, resulting in an oversupplied market.

Market participants are predicting that FeMo prices could decline to the $45-47/kg range, especially if molybdenum extraction resumes in full swing from various mining operations. The increased production has led to a more competitive environment, which may push prices lower throughout 2025.

Weak Demand in European Markets

While supply continues to rise, demand for FeMo and MoOx in Europe is showing signs of weakening. Steel producers are reducing their alloy intake, reflecting slower buying activity in the market. Despite the growth in industries linked to electric vehicles and renewable energy, these sectors have not been able to offset the broader slowdown in steel production. The ongoing decline in construction and infrastructure projects is expected to keep demand for molybdenum alloys subdued in the short term.

Additionally, political uncertainties and fluctuating energy costs continue to create volatility in the market, making it difficult to forecast the full extent of molybdenum price declines. In light of the pessimistic outlook, many market participants are adopting a cautious approach, opting to work on long-term contracts or deal on a hand-to-mouth basis, with a limited number of truckload inquiries being observed.

China’s Ferro-Molybdenum and Ferro-Vanadium Prices Remain Steady Amid Firm Demand

Ferro-Molybdenum

The Chinese noble alloys market has maintained stability in early 2025, with ferro-molybdenum (FeMo) and ferro-vanadium (FeV) prices holding firm due to consistent demand from steelmakers and steady raw material costs. Despite market uncertainties, domestic and export prices have largely remained unchanged since the end of December.

Ferro-Molybdenum Market Trends

Domestic prices for 60% grade ferro-molybdenum were assessed at 230,000-233,000 yuan per tonne (Yn/t) ($31,510-$31,921/t) ex-works, translating to Yn383-388 per kilogram (kg) of contained molybdenum. Export prices remained steady at $53-53.50/kg free on board (FOB) China.

• Steelmaker demand remains firm, with tenders closing at approximately Yn230,000/t on a delivery basis. However, January's total tender volume is expected to fall short of 10,000t, compared to 14,000t purchased in December.

• 45% grade concentrate prices were Yn3,590-3,620 per metric tonne unit (mtu) ex-works, while 57% grade roasted concentrate was assessed at Yn3,690-3,720/mtu ex-works, both unchanged from December 31 levels.

• A Jiangxi-based mining company finalized 45% grade concentrate sales at Yn3,595/mtu over the past two days.

With steady steel production supporting ferro-molybdenum demand, prices are expected to remain stable in the short term.

Ferro-Vanadium Market Holds Firm Despite Global Price Softness

The ferro-vanadium (50% grade) market remained stable at Yn81,000-83,000/t ex-works, supported by ongoing procurement from steelmakers and stable pentoxide flake costs.

• January procurement tenders were issued ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, with major private-sector steelmaker Nanjing Iron and Steel yet to set its tender price.

• Alloy producers maintained offers between Yn82,000-83,000/t, as pentoxide flake costs remained firm. A Tianjin-based trader purchased 10t of FeV at Yn81,000/t ex-works on December 31.

• Pentoxide flake prices remained at Yn73,000-74,000/t ex-works, with major suppliers Sichuan Chuanwei, Sichuan Desheng, and Chengde Jianlong yet to announce January prices.

Despite stable domestic demand, export prices for 80% grade ferro-vanadium softened to $24.30-25/kg FOB China, down from $24.80-25.30/kg on December 31. This decline reflects weaker international demand and lower bids from overseas buyers.

Conclusion

With firm steel sector demand and stable feedstock costs, China’s ferro-molybdenum and ferro-vanadium markets are expected to remain steady in early 2025. While domestic demand holds firm, international ferro-vanadium prices face downward pressure, reflecting weaker global buying interest. The market's direction in the coming months will depend on steelmakers' procurement strategies and raw material cost fluctuations.