Rio Tinto 2026 production guidance signals steady aluminium and higher alumina

Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto 2026 production guidance sets 2026 targets for bauxite, alumina, and aluminium. Rio Tinto 2026 production guidance keeps aluminium steady while it lifts alumina output. The company targets 58–61mn t of bauxite, 7.6–8mn t of alumina, and 3.25–3.45mn t of aluminium. However, tailings limits and power contracts shape the real supply outlook.

Bauxite and alumina tighten around operational constraints

Bauxite volumes will dip slightly as Rio Tinto eases Weipa output after a strong 2025. The company ran the Amrun mine above capacity for most of 2025. As a result, the complex lifted production by 8pc in January–September. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto plans a 2027 expansion at Norman Creek.

Alumina guidance rises, but Rio Tinto will curb output at Yarwun refinery in late 2026. The company expects 7.6–8mn t of alumina in 2026. However, it will cut the 3mn t/yr refinery by 1.2mn t/yr from October 2026. The site supplied about 39pc of Rio Tinto’s alumina in July–September.

Aluminium stays steady as capex and power risks grow

Aluminium output stays flat, yet the company invests heavily in low-carbon capacity. Rio Tinto plans 3.25–3.45mn t of aluminium in 2026. Meanwhile, it will expand the AP60 smelter in Canada to 220,000 t/yr. The $1.1bn project will add 96 pots in early 2026.

Australian power risk now threatens stable smelting volumes. Rio Tinto must secure a new power deal with Hydro Tasmania for Bell Bay smelter by end-2026. However, high energy costs could also force a 2028 closure decision at Tomago smelter in New South Wales. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto pursues growth through an India low-carbon smelter plan with AMG Metal and Mining. Therefore, Rio Tinto 2026 production guidance will face execution risk beyond the headline ranges.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Rio Tinto’s stable aluminium guidance hides rising constraints across refining and smelting. However, the AP60 expansion signals confidence in premium, low-carbon metal demand. Therefore, investors should watch tailings solutions and power negotiations more than volume targets.