Aircraft supply chain delays to last into 2030s

IATA

Aircraft supply chain delays will constrain airline growth into the 2030s, IATA warns. Aircraft supply chain delays now reflect worsening bottlenecks across engines, materials, and electronics. Therefore, airlines cannot replace older jets fast enough.

Aircraft supply chain delays may not ease before 2031–2034, according to IATA’s assessment. Delivery shortfalls total about 5,300 aircraft, while the backlog exceeds 17,000. Meanwhile, that backlog equals nearly 12 years of current production capacity.

Engine shortages and tariffs amplify production bottlenecks

Engine output now lags airframe output, creating parked “gliders” awaiting powerplants. As a result, final deliveries slip even when factories finish fuselages and wings. However, this imbalance also disrupts tier suppliers across castings, forgings, and precision machining.

Tariffs linked to United States–China trade tensions raise costs for metals and electronics used in aircraft builds. Therefore, input inflation can slow procurement and extend lead times. Meanwhile, aerospace-grade metals markets face choppier demand signals from shifting schedules.

Airlines pay the fuel and maintenance bill

Next-generation aircraft typically deliver more than 20% better fuel efficiency than older fleets. However, aircraft supply chain delays keep older aircraft flying longer. As a result, airlines burn more jet fuel than they would with faster fleet renewal.

An Oliver Wyman study with IATA estimated excess 2025 fuel costs above $4.2bn from older aircraft use. Meanwhile, average fleet age has reached about 15.1 years. Therefore, maintenance intensity rises and reliability planning becomes harder.

The same study estimated additional 2025 maintenance costs at about $3.1bn. As a result, the total cost burden from these delays reaches roughly $11bn for 2025. However, airlines still face demand growth that outpaces available capacity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Aircraft supply chain delays now look structural, not cyclical, for this decade. Therefore, metals suppliers should plan for volatile call-offs and stricter qualification demands. Meanwhile, OEMs will likely pursue tighter vertical control and dual sourcing.