Ferroglobe silicon metal shipments slide as trade defenses set stage for 2026 rebound

Ferroglobe

Ferroglobe silicon metal shipments dropped sharply in the third quarter, but Ferroglobe silicon metal shipments could stabilise as trade defenses strengthen. The company expects US and EU protectionist measures to support Ferroglobe silicon metal shipments and prices from 2025 into 2026. As a result, the producer is positioning for a cyclical rebound after a year of weak demand and heavy import pressure.

Silicon and FeSi under pressure from weak demand and low-priced imports

Ferroglobe’s silicon metal shipments fell 41pc year on year in the third quarter to 33,561t as chemicals demand weakened. Average silicon metal prices dropped 13.3pc to $2,950/t, pressured by low-priced imports from third countries into the EU market. This combination of lower volumes and softer prices hit revenue and margins across its silicon portfolio.

Meanwhile, silicon-based alloy shipments slipped 5.5pc to 42,968t, reflecting reduced activity in steel and foundry sectors. Average selling prices for silicon-based alloys declined 3.9pc to $2,149/t, again under pressure from Asian imports into Europe. However, manganese-based alloys proved more resilient, with shipments rising 7.8pc to 69,552t and partially offsetting weakness in other segments.

European shutdown and trade protection reshape market outlook

Ferroglobe suspended all silicon metal production in Europe in October, citing an “urgent need” for EU trade measures. The decision highlights the strain facing European smelters exposed to high power costs and cheap imports. It also tightens regional supply, which could improve pricing power if safeguard measures take effect.

In the US, preliminary anti-dumping margins on silicon metal imports already support domestic producers. In the EU, a final decision on safeguard measures is due by 19 November and will be pivotal for market balance. If approved, these tools should reduce unfairly priced inflows and support a recovery in Ferroglobe silicon metal shipments and alloy utilization rates.

Looking ahead to a 2026 recovery cycle

Management acknowledges that current market conditions remain challenging, but guidance points to a more constructive backdrop from 2026. Trade defenses in the US and EU should gradually restore a more level playing field for integrated silicon producers. That will matter for Ferroglobe silicon metal shipments, which remain highly sensitive to both industrial demand and import price competition.

At the same time, any cyclical rebound in chemicals, steel and foundry sectors would lift alloy volumes and support margins. The firm’s diversified exposure to manganese-based alloys also provides some buffer during the silicon downturn. However, the timing and strength of recovery will depend on how quickly EU and US measures bite and how energy prices evolve.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ferroglobe’s strategy now rests on regulatory tailwinds as much as on market fundamentals. If EU safeguards and US anti-dumping actions materialise as expected, European silicon pricing could reset higher from 2026. For downstream consumers, that would mean structurally tighter silicon availability and greater incentive to lock in long-term, de-risked supply.