Tesla and Rivian EV Deliveries Rise as US Tax Credit Expires

Tesla

Tesla and Rivian EV deliveries surged in the third quarter as US buyers raced to secure incentives. The jump in Tesla and Rivian EV deliveries highlights how strongly policy deadlines can pull demand forward. As a result, automakers now face a more uncertain sales outlook in a post-incentive US EV market.

Tesla and Rivian EV deliveries both increased, but their strategic positions differ. Tesla delivered more than 497,000 vehicles in the quarter, up by 7pc year on year. Meanwhile, Rivian delivered 13,201 vehicles, marking a 32pc increase from a year earlier. This divergence shows that Tesla and Rivian EV deliveries are growing from very different scales, with Tesla defending volume leadership and Rivian still in ramp-up mode.

However, much of the strength in Tesla and Rivian EV deliveries reflects a rush ahead of policy change. US consumers accelerated purchases before the $7,500 federal EV tax credit expired on 30 September. This incentive had supported EV affordability and narrowed the cost gap with combustion models. Now that the tax credit has ended, manufacturers must rely more on price cuts, financing offers and brand strength.

Energy storage and competition reshape the US EV landscape

Tesla’s third quarter also underlined its shift into broader clean-energy infrastructure. The company deployed 12.5GWh of energy storage products, an 81pc increase from the third quarter of 2024. These storage deployments support grid stability and fast-charging networks, and they diversify earnings beyond vehicle sales. As a result, Tesla’s integrated model may cushion the impact of any slowdown in pure EV demand.

Competition around Tesla and Rivian EV deliveries is intensifying as legacy automakers scale production. General Motors reported a 107pc surge in EV deliveries to 66,501 units in the third quarter. GM expects sales to normalise in the fourth quarter, once the pre-expiry demand bulge passes. Therefore, US EV market growth will increasingly depend on sustained consumer confidence rather than one-off policy deadlines.

Rivian trims outlook as policy tailwinds fade

Rivian’s revised guidance shows the limits of relying on one strong quarter. The company narrowed its full-year delivery outlook to 41,500–43,500 vehicles. The upper end is 5pc lower than its August guidance, signalling caution on demand and ramp-up execution. Investors will watch whether Rivian can manage costs and scale production while incentives fall away.

As a result, Tesla and Rivian EV deliveries now sit at the intersection of policy, pricing and competition. The next test will be how both brands perform without the powerful pull of a federal tax credit. Their ability to hold margins, maintain growth and expand product lines will shape upstream demand for batteries, critical minerals and low-carbon materials.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The spike in Tesla and Rivian EV deliveries illustrates how sharply fiscal incentives can front-load EV demand. With the US tax credit gone, supply-chain planners from cathode producers to aluminium and copper suppliers should expect more volatile order cycles. Over the medium term, winners in the EV race will be those automakers that pair cost discipline with secure access to critical materials, not just headline delivery growth.