CBA aluminum export pivot reshapes Brazil’s trade flows after US tariffs

CBA

CBA aluminum export pivot is underway as 50pc US tariffs bite. The CBA aluminum export pivot steers volumes toward Europe, Latin America, and Brazil. As a result, the CBA aluminum export pivot aims to protect pricing and margins.

Demand rebalancing offsets the US shortfall

CBA will redirect exports to nearer markets to dilute tariff risk. Executives said peers are making similar moves across Europe and the region. Meanwhile, low LME inventories could cushion price pressure from shifting trade. Domestic demand remains steady in construction, energy, and transportation.

Operations, costs, and alumina sourcing plans

CBA sold 119,000t in 2Q, with 91pc domestic and 9pc export. The firm did not disclose US volumes but flagged minimal exposure. However, Brazil’s aluminum association estimates R1.15bn supply-chain impact by 2025. Primary aluminum output slipped to 86,000t on maintenance and furnace shutdowns. Facilities have restarted, and management expects production to accelerate in coming quarters. Still, CBA pre-bought 31,500t alumina in 2Q and will source 30,000t more in 3Q. These actions secure deliveries but raise cash costs despite lower energy prices.

CBA tightens costs while absorbing price and sales headwinds. The company posted a R73mn quarterly loss, flat year on year. Therefore, execution depends on rapid ramp-up and disciplined alumina procurement. The pivot also relies on China and Brazil demand to absorb reallocated tons. Competitors are crowding into Europe, increasing competition and premia sensitivity. Pricing power may hinge on alloy mix, lead times, and logistics.

Strategic implications extend beyond a single quarter. Tariff-driven rerouting could reset trade lanes through 2025. Freight, port congestion, and credit terms will influence netbacks by corridor. Moreover, stable domestic end-markets offer baseline offtake for slab and FRP. If LME inventories stay lean, regional premia may remain resilient.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CBA’s quick rerouting shows how policy shocks rewire aluminum value chains. Watch alumina coverage, European premia, and Brazil’s downstream pull for margin recovery. If ramp-up holds and premia firm, the pivot can neutralize most US tariff drag.