Indonesia RKAB approval period to return to one year in 2026

Indonesia Mining

Indonesia RKAB approval period will revert to one year starting in 2026. ESDM intends to curb oversupply, reduce price volatility, and tighten control. The current RKAB cycle runs three years, replacing the former one-year regime.

Indonesia targets sharper governance across mining quotas and compliance. Therefore, a shorter cycle should improve monitoring and enforcement. However, miners must adjust planning, financing, and offtake strategies to annual approvals.

Why a one-year cycle matters

The Indonesia RKAB approval period change introduces planning uncertainty for 2026 allocations. Authorities have approved 296.1mn t for nickel in 2025 and 261.4mn t for 2026. However, regulators have not clarified how approved 2026 quotas will be treated.

Annual approvals can align output with real demand faster. As a result, the government can respond quickly to market swings. Meanwhile, miners face more frequent submissions, audits, and capital schedule reviews.

Implications for nickel and coal

Nickel producers face closer alignment between RKAB and actual output. Therefore, supply discipline could strengthen, influencing ore availability and midstream margins. Downstream projects must model annual permit risk into procurement.

Coal approvals remain high but rarely translate one-for-one into output. The 2025 coal RKAB stands at 917.2mn t, below 2024’s 922.1mn t plan. Yet 2024 output reached 834.1mn t, far above the 710mn t target, highlighting execution gaps.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This shift trades multi-year visibility for agile macro control. If executed well, annual approvals can temper volatility and enhance compliance. Watch how 2026 pre-approved quotas are reconciled with the new framework.