Global Aluminium Output March Growth Slows Despite Annual Gains

International Aluminum

Global aluminium output in March rose year-on-year but slowed slightly compared to February’s pace, signaling potential volatility ahead. The global aluminium output March data from the International Aluminium Institute reveals shifting regional dynamics as China leads production while other regions show mixed trends.

China Drives Annual Output Growth but Faces Trade Headwinds

Global aluminium production totaled 6.23 million tonnes in March, up 2.27% from the same month last year. However, average daily production declined to 200,900 tonnes, down from February’s revised 202,100 tonnes. China was the largest contributor, producing 3.73 million tonnes—up 3.41% year-on-year. Only October and December 2023 saw higher output.

Domestic demand and healthy profit margins drove China's production growth. However, escalating trade tensions with the U.S. may undermine this momentum. The aluminium industry is now watching closely for signs of further instability in Chinese industrial output.

Mixed Regional Trends Highlight Uneven Global Recovery

Outside China, production showed mixed results. Europe’s output increased 2.77% to 594,000 tonnes, while Asia (excluding China) rose 1.22% to 415,000 tonnes. Africa and South America posted stronger growth at 7.81% and 3.15% respectively.

In contrast, output declined in North America (down 0.88%), Oceania (down 1.86%), and the Middle East (down 2.61%). These declines may reflect energy costs, regulatory changes, or weakening demand in key export markets.

Price Volatility Reflects Market Uncertainty

London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices averaged $2,650/t in March, a notable increase from $2,270/t a year earlier. However, prices retreated in April to an average of $2,407/t amid global equity market declines triggered by worsening U.S.–China trade tensions. This volatility is raising concern across supply chains and influencing production strategies globally.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The March rise in global aluminium output masks underlying signals of softness in monthly momentum. With geopolitical tensions and pricing instability increasing, producers may adopt a more cautious stance in the months ahead.