Molybdenum Growth Forecast Adjusted Amid Automotive and Aerospace Challenges

the International Molybdenum Association (IMOA)

The projected global molybdenum usage growth over the next decade has been revised downward due to ongoing difficulties in the automotive and aerospace sectors, according to discussions at the International Molybdenum Association (IMOA) annual general meeting in Tokyo. While global automobile production is still expected to rise by 11% by 2033, the growth rate has fallen short of earlier expectations, hindered by supply chain issues and affordability concerns. In 2022, forecasts suggested that global automobile production could increase by as much as 30% over 2021-2031.

Similarly, the electric vehicle (EV) market, a significant molybdenum consumer, is expected to experience a slowdown in growth. Bloomberg New Energy Finance projects an average annual increase of 21% from 2024 to 2027, down from a 61% rise between 2020 and 2023. This shift, along with the ongoing transition from internal combustion engines to EVs, is likely to reduce long-term molybdenum consumption in the auto industry.

Aerospace and Renewable Energy Keep Demand Stable

Although the aerospace and defense sectors are anticipated to be strong drivers of molybdenum demand in the next decade, both Airbus and Boeing face persistent supply chain limitations that have constrained their output. Still, these companies predict that demand for wide-body jets will double over the next 20 years. In contrast, renewable energy, particularly wind power, is expected to fuel molybdenum demand in alloyed steels. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a 14% year-on-year increase in renewable electricity production in June 2024, with wind power seeing a 28.1% rise.

Despite these gains, mechanical engineering and construction sectors have dampened overall molybdenum demand due to high interest rates and China’s weakening property market. Investment in China’s real estate sector fell by 10.2% from the previous year, with new project start-ups dropping by 22.5%, underscoring steel demand challenges.

IMOA data revealed that global molybdenum consumption outpaced production in 2023, with consumption rising by 1% to 630 million pounds. China remained the largest consumer and producer of molybdenum, while output in South America declined in tandem with reduced copper production. North American production has remained largely unchanged.

Although supply is expected to grow with the expansion of production projects, the molybdenum market is forecast to remain tight throughout the next decade due to persistent demand, despite the lower-than-expected growth rate.

Global Molybdenum Production Rose in 2025 as China Demand Strengthened

Molybdenum Production

Global molybdenum production increased in 2025 as mine supply and industrial consumption both expanded. Data from the International Molybdenum Association showed that global molybdenum production rose by 4% on the year to 672.6mn lb.

The increase was broadly matched by demand growth. Global molybdenum consumption also rose by 4% to 671.8mn lb, leaving the market close to balance over the full year.

Global molybdenum production growth was strongest in North America, while China remained the largest producer and consumer. The data showed a market supported by Chinese steel alloy demand, even as Europe, Japan and CIS markets weakened.

North America Led Supply Growth While China Remained Dominant

China remained the world’s largest molybdenum producer in 2025, lifting output by 1% to 302.1mn lb. South America, the second-largest producing region, was almost flat, with output rising by only 0.5% to 175.6mn lb.

North America delivered the strongest regional production increase. Output rose by 17% to 133.7mn lb, helping drive the global supply increase despite limited growth elsewhere.

Combined production from the rest of the world was flat at 61.3mn lb. Fourth-quarter global production reached 168.4mn lb, up 1% from a year earlier.

The supply data suggest that molybdenum remained available, but not heavily oversupplied. With annual production and consumption nearly equal, regional demand shifts became more important than headline global tonnage.

China Consumption Offset Weakness in Europe and Japan

China’s molybdenum consumption rose by 9% to around 337.8mn lb in 2025, reinforcing the country’s role as the main demand engine. The increase likely reflected stronger use in molybdenum-bearing steels, specialty alloys and industrial applications.

Europe moved in the opposite direction. Regional demand fell by 7% to 114.3mn lb, reflecting weaker industrial activity and pressure in steel-linked sectors.

Japan’s consumption declined by 3%, while CIS demand recorded the steepest fall at 12%. These declines showed that molybdenum demand remained uneven across major industrial regions.

Global consumption also softened late in the year. Fourth-quarter demand reached 166.4mn lb, down 2% from the previous quarter, suggesting some cooling after earlier strength.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The molybdenum market stayed balanced in 2025, but the regional split was clear. China’s demand strength supported global consumption, while weaker European and Japanese usage showed that molybdenum remains closely tied to industrial confidence and steel alloy demand.

Molybdenum Production and Consumption See Steady Growth in Q3: IMOA Report

Molybdenum

Global molybdenum production and usage witnessed moderate year-on-year growth during the third quarter of 2023, according to the International Molybdenum Association (IMOA). Both supply and demand were up, reflecting steady demand for molybdenum in industries such as stainless steel production, chemical processing, and high-strength alloys.

Global Production: China and South America Lead

Global molybdenum output reached 162.4 million pounds (mn lbs) in Q3 2023, marking a 0.3% increase year on year and a 2% rise compared to Q2.

• China maintained its dominant position as the world’s largest producer, contributing 74.5 mn lbs, up 1% year on year.

• South America, the second-largest producer, recorded a significant 7% increase in output, reaching 46.4 mn lbs.

• In contrast, North American production dropped by 5%, totaling 27.3 mn lbs, while output from other regions declined sharply by 19%, settling at 14.2 mn lbs.

This geographical disparity underscores China's continued dominance in molybdenum production, as well as South America's growing importance in the supply chain.

Consumption: Rising Demand Across Key Regions

Global molybdenum consumption rose to 164.1 mn lbs in Q3 2023, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase and a 2% quarter-on-quarter rise.

• China accounted for the highest demand, consuming 80.5 mn lbs, an 8% increase compared to the previous year. Its consumption outpaced domestic production, indicating strong industrial demand for molybdenum.

• Europe ranked second with a modest 1% rise in demand, reaching 28.5 mn lbs.

• In the United States, consumption edged up by 1% to 15.9 mn lbs, while the CIS region reported a 1% decline to 5.7 mn lbs.

• Japanese demand fell by 4%, landing at 11 mn lbs, while other regions experienced a 6% drop, consuming 22.5 mn lbs.

The increase in demand in major economies like China and Europe highlights molybdenum’s critical role in sectors such as steel alloys and energy infrastructure. However, declines in regions like Japan and the CIS suggest uneven recovery in global industrial activity.

Outlook

With China leading both production and consumption, and South America’s output on the rise, molybdenum continues to be a key player in global industrial applications. As demand for advanced alloys and renewable energy technologies grows, the market for molybdenum is expected to remain resilient, though regional variations in production and usage may persist.